RACE 6 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Cinmars Dance (Morning Line 7-2)
# 7 Zackos My Man (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Macho Sox (ML 5-2)
# 5 Prince of Paris (ML 5-1)
Note for future reference the N2L designation above; this contest is restricted to horses which have never won two races. For whatever reason, both Brisnet and the Daily Racing Form omit that bit of information from their Past Performances, which creates a very misleading impression of the class level of the entrants.
Cinmars Dance took the Show at this level two starts back, and should welcome the return to real dirt. Worth noting is the five furlong work on 9/4; not so much for the bullet, but because of the way it compares to earlier works by this runner at that same five furlong distance.
Zackos My Man comes back off the shelf since being (apparently) injured competing in May (interesting that a third of the field in that contest was eased). Zackos My Man has been working well leading up to today's event, and just might lead this pack all the way around the track.
Macho Sox took the Place his last time out at, at today's distance and at this class level. But that was on the grass; in addition, Macho Sox's lone win came over the Del Mar Polytrack. So the question here is how will Macho Sox handle the dirt. Macho Sox's works on dirt have not exactly been eye catching; but he is sired by Macho Uno, who won multiple Graded Stakes on dirt. If Macho Sox can carry his turf and synthetic form to dirt, he'll be right in the mix today.
Prince of Paris crossed the wire first against open $20k Claimers last time out, though he had to settle for the Place after a DQ. Prince of Paris' lone Win came at today's distance, and he has enough early foot to make him dangerous on dirt at this class level.
RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Brando the Birdman (ML 4-1)
# 4 Omar (ML 6-1)
# 7 Johns Journey (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Sir Kip (ML 4-1)
# 6 Tribal Desert (ML 8-1)
Brando the Birdman defeated non-state restricted company last December in his only prior race on real dirt; and was promptly shelved for over half a year. This will be Brando the Birdman's second start off the layoff; note that Trainer Vann Belvoir wins approximately 18% with such.
Omar defeated open Allowance company (N1X) the last time that he competed on real dirt. I'm also willing to forgive that last effort, seeing as Omar took the scenic route around the Del Mar track, visiting every spot except the rail.
Johns Journey won in his only prior try at this track, against non-state restricted company. Johns Journey's Brisnet Speed Figures on dirt fit well in this field, and the outside post allows him to press and pounce as he did in that victory two starts back.
Sir Kip takes on winners for the first time today; but he broke his maiden by daylight, and must be respected as speed on the rail. Indeed, there seems to be quite a bit of early foot in this one; that sets up well for closer Tribal Desert.
RACE 8 - (F) The Barretts Debutante $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Into Oblivion (ML 7-5)
C's
# 3 Sharla Rae (ML 7-2)
The two first time starters for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, # 1 Dyna Star (ML 6-1) and # 7 Heat the Rocks (ML 10-1) have both been scratched.
Note that this stakes race is restricted, as only those two year old fillies who were offered for sale at a Barretts auction are eligible.
Into Oblivion is a standout here; well, as much of a standout as a two year old filly with only one prior start can be. Into Oblivion won her debut easily, earning a Brisnet Speed Figure that is well above what the rest of the field earned their last time out. Expect Into Oblivion to go to Post at odds well below even money.
Sharla Rae gets some class relief after trying Graded Stakes competition her last time out. Sharla Rae is the only horse in this field with a Win over this track.
RACE 9 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Roman Tizzy (ML 8-1)
# 3 Point Happy (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kochees (ML 4-1)
# 9 Industry Leader (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Green Tag (ML 4-1)
# 11 Sidepocket Champ (ML 8-1)
Roman Tizzy took the Show at this level last time out, albeit over the Del Mar Polytrack. Roman Tizzy's lone Win came over a fast dirt track, and he has finished in the money four other times in his seven career dirt starts.
Point Happy returns after a one year vacation sporting a bullet work over this track on August 29. Point Happy has a Win and a Place in three career starts on a fast dirt track. If Point Happy returns to the form that he was showing before he went on the shelf, he'll be right in the mix today.
Kochees is another dropping a few steps down the class ladder. While such a move for a horse coming back from a seven week layoff could be a red flag, I think in this case it's more a realistic appraisal of a runner that has finished out of the money in eight out of twelve lifetime starts.
Industry Leader took the Place at this class level last time out, in which he went off as the Post Time Favorite.
Green Tag gets major class relief today, dropping from open Claimers to this contest limited to non-winners of two lifetime.
Sidepocket Champ should appreciate the turnback in distance today. Note that the last two times that Sidepocket Champ tried to go a mile he was within a length of the leader entering the stretch only to fade badly.
# 12 G'night (Morning Line 7-2) took the Place against more expensive last time out (albeit on Polytrack) and the Show against more expensive three starts back (albeit on turf). G'night has finished out of the money three of the four times that he's tried a fast dirt track. Perhaps this is the day that G'night carries his form from synthetic and turf to the dirt; but I'll be betting against that outcome.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,7 with 3,4,7 with 2 with 1,3,7,9 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 3,4,7 with 2 with 1,3,7,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 1,6 with 2 with 1,3,7,9 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 3,4,7 with 3 with 1,3,7,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 3,4,7 with 2 with 2,11 $6.00
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment