9/12/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

It's the first of two Saturdays in the "This Seems Like a Good Time To Take a Vacation" Meet at Los Alamitos.  But rest assured that we'll be here, because we're degenerates dedicated to this game.  So with that, let's take a look at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Big Discovery (Morning Line 5-2)
# 7 Silver Spirit (ML 7-2)

B's

# 3 Dylan Ward (ML 3-1)
# 6 Day in the Sun (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Magic Moon (ML 5-1)

Big Discovery took the Place at this class level at today's distance last time out.  Silver Spirit has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, earned at today's distance.

Dylan Ward, trained by Phil D'Amato, is making his first start on a fast dirt track, after having finished in the Trifecta in seven of his nine career turf starts.  Day in the Sun took the Place at this class level over this main track two starts back.  Magic Moon makes his second career start for Trainer Bob Baffert, his first around two turns.

RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 My Friend Emma (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 2 Pay the Fine (ML 4-1)
# 7 Sidepocket Champ (ML 12-1)
# 8 Prince Charmant (ML 3-1)
# 9 W. Giles (ML 7-2)

C's

None

# 3 Better Bet (No Line) is a program scratch.

My Friend Emma took the Place against open (non-state restricted) OC 25k/N1X company last time out; so this is a pretty significant drop in class. Note also the bullet work at Del Mar on the 5th.  Personally, I think 6-1 is very optimistic; but I also think that My Friend Emma represents good value at even half that price.

Pay the Fine took the Place at this approximate class level last time out.  Prince Charmant has finished in the Trifecta at this approximate class level in each of his last two races.

W. Giles has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, and goes first off the claim for Trainer Kelly Castaneda, who wins with over twenty percent of such.  There are a lot of need to lead types in this field; Sidepocket Champ could be the one running best late, though the addition of blinkers today may complicate that forecast.

RACE 8 - [S] The E. B. Johnston $75k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Motown Men (ML 9-5)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Ambitious Brew (ML 3-1)

Motown Men missed by less than a length against open stakes company last time out.  Motown Men has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last two races that are superior to those earned by any other runner in this field in either of their last two races.

Ambitious Brew took the Place against state-bred stakes competition two starts back, the only prior start by Ambitious Brew over a fast dirt track.

RACE 9 - [S] (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Moonie (ML 3-1))
# 9 West Mid (ML 12-1)

B's

# 5 Cape's Rockette (ML 6-1)
# 7 Slew's Charm (ML 6-1)
# 10 Amitie Pour La Vie (ML 20-1)

C's

None

Moonie has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last two starts over a fast dirt track.  Moonie has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of her last two races that are superior to those earned by any other runner in this field in either of their last two races.

West Mid was within two lengths of the winner the last time that she raced on a fast dirt track, when her competition was open non-claiming maidens.  Cape's Rockette and Amitie Pour La Vie are a pair of second time starters who showed good early speed in their respective debut.  Slew's Charm has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last three starts, and could be the one running best late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,7 with 10 with 8 with 4,9 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,6,7 with 2,7,8,9,10 with 8 with 4,5,7,9,10 $50.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1 with 10 with 8 with 4,9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 10 with 4 with 4,9 $2.00

Total: $57.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo