Saturday, November 17, 2012

11/16/12 BHP Race 5 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

Hey, did you hear?  Zenyatta's half-sisterEblouissante, won her debut in Race 4 at Hollywood Park on Friday.  Which, needless to say, is not what this post is about.  Instead, we'll be focusing on the race after that one, as we continue to follow the exploits of Crown Over.

To briefly recap, Crown Over is a four year old gelding that was claimed by Trainer James Kasparoff out of the ninth race at Golden Gate Fields on August 25 for $25,000.  What made the claim notable was that Crown Over had gone to post at final odds of 32.2-1.  

Normally, when a horse is claimed out of a race, the claimed horse is either the favorite or one of the other short odds entrants.  Which makes sense; after all, if you're going to purchase a horse out of a specific race, and all the horses in that race have the same price tag, it makes sense that you would pick one of the better ones (as determined by the amounts wagered).  For a trainer and/or owner to claim a horse out of a race in which the horse ran at long odds, especially odds greater than 30-1, indicates the trainer/owner believes that he sees something (ability; earning potential; etc.) in the horse that the betting public (not to mention the horse's prior connections) do not. Following the horse's career post-claim gives us the opportunity to see if the new connections were correct in their assessment.

In his first two starts for Kasparoff, both in Starter Allowance races, Crown Over finished seventh and seventh.  Friday, Kasparoff dropped Crown Over down in class, into a claiming race, non-winners of two lifetime, with a price tag of $16k.

That's right; in his third race following the claim, Crown Over's new connections decided to offer the horse for sale for nine thousand dollars less than what they had paid.

There were no takers.

As to the race itself, Crown Over, with Joe Talamo aboard, left the gate at Final Odds of 3.4-1, and was last at first call and next-to-last at the half.  Crown Over came on towards the end, splitting horses at mid-stretch and winning the photo for third by a nose, paying $3.20 to Show.  Crown Over's share of the purse for finishing third was $2,160; bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed for $25,000 to $2,860.

So it seems safe to say, at least so far, that whatever his new connections thought they saw in Crown Over when they purchased him for $25k was probably a mirage.  We'll continue to track Crown Over while he remains in the Kasparoff barn and follow this story to the end; 'cos, who knows?  Maybe Crown Over turns it around.  After all, this is horse racing, and stranger things have happened.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

No comments: