There's no Pick Six carryover going into today's card at Del Mar; but there are several competitive events; and, as always, the chance to have some fun, and maybe turn a little profit. With that, let's take a look at today's Late Pick Four:
RACE 7 MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Proven Warrior (Morning Line 5-1) took the Place in each of his first two career starts, with Beyer Speed Figures that are normally good enough to win at this level. In each of those first two races Proven Warrior came from just off the pace and was making up ground at the end. In his most recent contest, it appears that Proven Warrior was gunned for the early lead; and when he didn’t make it, he pretty much spit the bit, and finished well back in fifth. We’ll see how he’s driven today; but 5-1 looks to be a very generous price.
# 3 Holy Lute (ML 4-1) looked sharp in his debut in July, and any reasonable improvement over that effort should put him right in the mix today. The problem is that Holy Lute goes for a barn that is winless in this current meet; and it’s tough to view the switch in rider from Smith to Flores as a positive.
# 4 Imperial Fortune (ML 5-2) is a Bob Baffert trained colt that really stepped up his last time out in his second career start; as he just missed graduating while taking the Place behind Tom’s Tribute, who in turn just missed by a neck in winning his next time out in his first try against winners.
# 5 Raider Power (ML 8-1) is a first time starter going for conditioner Thomas Proctor, who gets 14% winners from debut performers. The progeny of Indian Charlie (Raider Power’s sire) win approximately 16% of their initial attempts. Raider Power has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field. Mike Smith is scheduled to be in the irons today.
# 8 Wonderful Union (ML 3-1), like Raider Power, is also a first time starter. Wonderful Union was sired by Tiz Wonderful, whose offspring get their picture taken right after their debut performances nearly 23% of the time. Trainer Ron Ellis does not sport a good record with first time starters; but the bullet Wonderful Union fired in his last workout (working from the gate) combined with the presence of Joe Talamo in the saddle, along with the above referenced sire stats, suggests that Wonderful Union just might to be ready to hit the ground running.
If Proven Warrior and Imperial Fortune fire their best, then the race will be between those two. But the fact that neither has ever previously competed over the Del Mar main track suggests that it might be wise to use some, if not all, of the other contenders listed above. I’ll most likely be using Proven Warrior and Imperial Fortune as my “A’s” with the others as my “C’s” for this leg.
RACE 8 - The La Jolla Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 3 Uno Dos Adios (ML 8-1) has been maturing quite nicely, and makes the step up today to his first stakes competition. A normal continued progression should allow him to be competitive against this group today.
# 4 Dry Summer (ML 6-1) won the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf here last December, thus making him the only entrant in today’s contest with a win over this course. Joe Talamo, who was on board for that one, gets the ride again today.
# 6 Rosengold (ML 5-1) had pocketed three straight stakes wins before losing the lead in the stretch his last time out in one of the divisions of the Oceanside. While I don’t expect him to get the easy early lead that he had in the Tsunami Slew Stakes, there is the possibility that he could sneak off with some light fractions in the early going today.
# 8 Dice Flavor (ML 6-1) broke his maiden on the grass in a contest run at today’s distance. Dice Flavor’s performance his last time out while taking the Show in the Grade 2 Swaps strongly suggests that he’s fully recovered from his trip to Dubai earlier this year. Garrett Gomez, making his return to competition today, gets the mount.
# 9 Pure Loyalty (ML 8-1) deserves a bogey for his last time out, the only time he has failed to fire since making the transition to grass. Pure Loyalty just missed catching Rosengold in the aforementioned Tsunami Slew, and his best is good enough to compete against this field.
I didn’t think much of either division of The Oceanside this year, which is why Rosengold in the only horse coming out of that event that I’m considering using today. I’m currently leaning towards Dice Flavor; but this contest is competitive enough that there are several legitimate ways to go.
RACE 9 - (F)OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 12 Bench Glory (ML 8-1) is one-for-two over the Del Mar surface, making her the only competitor in the field with a win over this track. In her most recent contest, against tougher, Bench Glory finished fourth, two and three quarter lengths behind the winner. Both the Place and the Show horse from that event have won their next time out.
Beyond Bench Glory, this appears to be anyone’s race. # 7 She’s a Go Girl (ML 20-1) won at this level at Turf Paradise her last time out. Defining competitive as finishing in the money and/or within three lengths of the winner, # 1 Possible (GB) (ML 8-1); # 2 Gifting (ML 7-2); # 3 Warren’s Internet (ML 15-1); # 5 Llandudno (ML 10-1); # 10 Ubelongtomemissy (ML 8-1); and # 11 Wild in the Saddle (ML 20-1) were all competitive at this level in their most recent contests. # 4 Unseen Visitor (ML 6-1) and # 9 Glorious Luck (ML 9-2) are both lightly raced horses who have each won their last two races and are now making a move up in class.
This race pretty much cries out for the “ALL” button; but as the other legs in this series are also competitive, doing so would pretty much make a Pick Four ticket unplayable. I suspect that I’ll be using Bench Glory as a single “A” contender; and then trying to cobble together a few to use as “C’s” in case she doesn’t fire.
RACE 10 Md $30k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
# 3 Trouble X Two (ML 6-1) took the Place at this distance @ Hollywood Park two races back. Joe Talamo, who was on board last time, when they tried to stretch out Trouble X Two on the grass, will get the ride again today.
# 4 Wheeler Gorge (ML 6-1) flashed some early speed while going up against MSW company up North in his debut back in June.
# 6 Wildcat Candy (ML 3-1) took the Place against cheaper last time out; the winner of that one went on to win a Starter Allowance his next time out. Rafael Bejarano, who was on board for Wildcat Candy’s previous two starts, gets the mount again today.
# 8 Cinco de Mario (ML 7-2) moves another step down the class ladder after being unable to hold the lead in the stretch against more expensive his last time out. This will be Cinco de Mario’s first time sprinting since July of last year. Cinco de Mario has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
The Morning Line looks very generous for Trouble X Two; if Cinco de Mario manages to avoid the Winner’s Circle again, it would hardly be a surprise if Trouble X Two was the one getting his picture taken at the end the day.
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good Lord willing, I've have my Pick Four play up at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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