Moving from west to east, we're going to try our hand today at Saratoga's All-Graded Stakes Pick Four (Races 9 through 12, inclusive), a sequence that ends with the 144th running of The Travers Stakes. But first, for those who may not have already heard, Joel Rosario was injured Friday and will be out six weeks with a broken foot. Rosario's mounts in the Pick Four sequence we're pursuing have been changed as follows:
Race 9 - The Test
# 8 My Happy Face - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Mike E. Smith
Race 10 - The Ballston Spa
# 6 Somali Lemonade - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Luis Saez
Race 11 - The King's Bishop
# 2 Forty Tales - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Julien Leparoux
Race 12 - The Travers
# 2 Orb - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Jose Lezcano
No word yet on how Rosario's scheduled mounts for Sunday at Del Mar, including Game On Dude in the Pacific Classic, will be altered; but here's something to consider:
Holding Glory (Brz) has been cross-entered in Saturday’s Del Mar Handicap and Sunday's Pacific Classic. If Holding Glory runs today, then that means that Holding Glory’s jockey will be without a mount for the Pacific Classic, and therefore available to ride Game On Dude. Holding Glory’s jockey? Game On Dude’s former rider, Chantal Sutherland-Kruse.
Anyway, that's tomorrow's news. Turning back to today at Saratoga:
RACE 9 - (F)The Test (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
# 5 Sweet Lulu (Morning Line 5-2) is the Hollendorfer trained invader from the Left Coast, who is three-for-three for her career. Sweet Lulu has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field; but that was earned in a two-turn route on the polytrack; there’s no guarantee that form will hold in a sprint on a fast dirt track. Note also that this will be Sweet Lulu’s first try against stakes level competition.
# 6 Lighthouse Bay (ML 4-1) took a big step forward in winning the Grade 1 Prioress Stakes over this track last time out. Maybe she did some growing up since winning the Jostle back in June; maybe she really took to the Saratoga surface and surroundings; or maybe it was just a fluke, helped along by a really great trip; we’ll just have to wait and see. Worth noting: Lighthouse Bay has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this field.
# 8 My Happy Face (ML 3-1) has taken the Place behind some of the best that this three year old crop of fillies has to offer. My Happy Face was second in the Frizette behind Dreaming of Julia, who would go on to win the Gulfstream Oaks by over twenty lengths; My Happy Face took the Place in the Forward Gal Stakes behind four time Graded Stakes winner Kauai Katie; and, last time out, in the Coaching Club American Oaks, My Happy Face finished in front of everyone except Princess of Sylmar, winner of the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama Stakes. So while this is a Grade One contest, My Happy Face will be enjoying some class relief.
# 4 I’m Mom’s Favorite (ML 20-1) is an intriguing entry, depending upon how you view her last effort, where she finished last in the Grade 3 Victory Ride. If that result was simply because she couldn’t handle the level of competition, then she will certainly be a non-factor today. But if you decide that her poor effort was a matter of fatigue, then the Tony Dutrow trained I’m Mom’s Favorite certainly deserves some consideration off the freshening, as her two victories prior to the Victory Ride both came in key races, including the Miss Preakness, where she defeated Prioress Stakes winner Lighthouse Bay. Adding to the appeal is that I’m Mom’s Favorite has the second best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this bunch.
This is a tough one, as this field is quite competitive. Right now, I’m considering using six of the nine entrants in my play; but, as always, that’s subject to change.
RACE 10 - (F)The Ballston Spa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 1 Laughing (Ire) (ML 7-2) won the Grade 1 Diana here at the Spa her last time out, and looks to be the one to beat in this one. Laughing has been showing steady improvement in her efforts over the past twelve months, as measured by her steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures. Laughing has shown the ability in her career to win both on the front end and by coming off the pace; but with # 2 Pianist (ML 5-1) the only other pace presence in this one, look for Laughing to repeat her effort in the Diana by wiring the field.
# 3 Miz Ida (ML 8-1) makes her New York debut today, after having taken the Place behind # 6 Somali Lemonade (ML 6-1) her last time out in the Grade 3 Dr James Penny Memorial Handicap. So why would I use Miz Ida over the horse she finished behind her last time out? Well, for starters, Miz Ida's effort in that one fits in with her career form; while Somali Lemonade's victory appears to be an outlier in her lifetime stats. Also, Miz Ida's conditioner, Steve Margolis, has a better record when bringing his starters back after a four-to-eight week rest than Somali Lemonade's Trainer, Michael Matz. Finally, Somali Lemonade had Joel Rosario on her back for that last out win; as noted above, Rosario won't be doing any riding today.
Anyway, that's the way I see it; but, bottom line, if Laughing runs the race that I expect her to run, then all of the above comparisons between Miz Ida and Somali Lemonade will be moot; at least as far as our Pick Four play is concerned.
RACE 11 - The King's Bishop (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
# 2 Forty Tales (ML 5-2), one of three in this field trained by Todd Pletcher, has already beaten most of the serious contenders in this one his last two times out, in the process of winning the Amsterdam and the Woody Stevens. The only horse in this event that rates a class edge over Forty Tales is another Pletcher entry, # 9 Overanalyze (ML 12-1); but Overanalyze, despite his win in the six furlong Grade 2 Futurity last year, seems out of place in this one-turn sprint.
There are a lot of things that can go wrong when backing a closer like Forty Tales: he may not get enough pace to chase; he may not fire his best shot; he may get stuck in traffic in such a large field (there are currently fourteen horses scheduled to go to post in this one). But it just seems to me that Forty Tales rates a clear edge over the rest of this field; and if he runs to the form that he showed in his last two outings, then Forty Tales will be the one getting his picture taken when this one is finished.
RACE 12 - The Travers (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
# 2 Orb (ML 4-1) comes off an eleven week vacation, having not competed since taking the Show in The Belmont; and it seems that the rest has done Orb well, as he's been firing nothing but bullets in his three public workouts in August. Orb has won a pair of Graded Stakes on a fast dirt track; but, based upon Orb's Kentucky Derby victory in the slop, don't be surprised if you see Trainer Shug McGaughey doing a raindance sometime this afternoon.
# 3 Verrazano (ML 2-1) is a perfect six-for-six in his career on fast dirt tracks. Like Orb, Verrazano owns a pair of Grade 1 wins. Johnny Velasquez, who has been on board for all of Verrazano's career starts, gets the mount again today.
# 8 Palace Malice (ML 5-2) is two-for-two over this Saratoga main track; # 1 Romansh (ML 12-1) is the only other entrant in this field with a win at the Spa. Palace Malice misses by a neck of joining Orb and Verrazano in the two-time Grade 1 Winners Club.
The top contenders in this one are obvious; and, in my opinion, any of the above three could be considered a likely winner. Were I playing the Win pool, I would probably go with Orb based upon price (presuming, of course, that the public bets this one as the Morning Line predicts). For our Pick Four purposes, I see no way around not covering all three. The question then becomes whether or not I want to toss in a few longshots as well; after all, this is Saratoga, the graveyard of favorites.
Post Time for Race 9 is 4:05 EDT / 1:05 PDT. Good Lord willing, I'll have my Pick Four play up at least thirty minutes prior to that time.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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