Saturday brings us to Day 2 of the 2017 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar, and we have a Pick Four Double Header; Races 5 - 8 (inclusive) for the first play, and Races 9 - 12 (inclusive) to close out the card. This post is dedicated to the early sequence; so let's get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 5 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Lady Aurelia (ML 5-2)
# 6 Marsha (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Disco Partner (ML 9-2)
# 4 Stormy Liberal (ML 12-1)
# 5 Washington DC (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Bucchero (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Guns Loaded (ML 20-1), and # 14 Paquita Coqueta (ML 20-1)
The Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita is always a thing of beauty, and the charge down the Santa Anita hill is certainly a wondrous sight to behold. But the charge down the hill really isn't a turf sprint per se, as its two turns and six and a half furlongs distance make it very much more suited to milers than sprinters, not to mention to runners that just love the thrill of speeding down the hill side. So for those runners that are pure turf sprinters, the change of location for the Breeders' Cup will no doubt be welcomed.
Lady Aurelia and Marsha (Ire) are the only two distaff runners in this field (with Paquita Coqueta not drawing in); they are also, in my opinion, clearly the two best runners in this field. Lady Aurelia probably enjoys a slight edge (as confirmed by the Morning Line odds), but I believe these two to be close enough in talent to place them both equally at the top of the ticket.
Disco Partner might have received more consideration to be included on the big ticket had he not drawn the rail, where I think that he will be disadvantaged by his come from behind running style. Stormy Liberal looks to be the one that will be riding the rail to lead the field early.
Washington DC (Ire) makes it onto my tickets again this year because I remain convinced that, at his best, he has the chance to pull off the upset and blow up the tote board. Bucchero has already proved the ability to win when not expected; at the least, Bucchero should be a pace presence early, and thus avoid any traffic issues late.
RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Unique Bella (ML 9-5)
B's
# 2 Paulassilverlining (ML 8-1)
# 7 By the Moon (ML 12-1)
# 12 Skye Diamonds (ML 5-1)
C's
# 4 Finest City (ML 12-1)
# 9 Finley'sluckycharm (ML 6-1)
Unique Bella has done little wrong so far in her six race career; but Saturday's field is significantly more talented than that which she's been facing; so it seemed prudent to me to spread a bit here.
Paulassilverlining is coming off her one bad outing of 2017. I expect Paulassilverlining to be much improved off the freshening. By the Moon has been solid all year long. Syke Diamonds has shown an affinity for this main track, and she seems to be peaking at just the right time.
Finest City, last year's winner of this event, may no longer be at the level that she was in 2016. Finley'sluckycharm has finished in the Exacta in each of her last nine events, though Finley'sluckycharm does seem to just miss whenever she rises above Grade 3 company.
RACE 7 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Lady Eli (ML 5-2)
# 14 Rhododendron (Ire) (ML 8-1)
B's
# 5 Wuheida (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 10 Queen's Trust (GB) (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 War Flag (ML 12-1)
# 7 Dacita (Chi) (8-1)
# 8 Grand Jete (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 11 Nezwaah (GB) (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Kitten's Roar (ML 20-1), and # 16 Responsibleforlove (Ire) (ML 20-1)
Note that a furlong has been chopped off this event in the twelve months since it was last run.
Lady Eli looks to have a clear edge over the rest of the field. You know; just like last year, when she lost to Queen's Trust (GB) by a nose. Rhododendron seems to be peaking at just the right time. Wuheida (GB) should be quick enough early to avoid any traffic issues late.
War Flag, Dacita (Chi), and Grad Jete (GB) filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl at Belmont Park. The trio seems to be close enough in talent that if I was to use one on the big ticket, then I would need to use all three on the big ticket; and I didn't think that their talent level justified that kind of investment. Nezwaah (GB) seems to leave her "A" game overseas when she comes to the US. Perhaps skipping the Lasix will help her regain her form.
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Drefong (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Takaful (ML 5-1)
# 8 Roy H (ML 7-2)
# 10 Imperial Hint (ML 9-2)
C's
# 6 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 6-1)
# 9 Ransom the Moon (ML 12-1)
In the days leading up to the Post Position draw for the Breeders' Cup races, I felt sure that I would be using defending champ Drefong as a big ticket single. However, examining the Past Performances for this field, I felt that it would be better for my nerves and general disposition if I was to spread a bit here, in what will be the final race of the sequence.
Needless to say, Drefong has done little wrong in his eight race career. Takaful's form looks much better when you focus only on his contests under a mile in distance. Roy H looks well positioned for a nice stalking trip.
Imperial Hint just keeps winning. Mind Your Biscuits and Ransom the Moon are two that can be forgiven for their respective last "efforts".
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 11 with 9,14 with 2 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2,7,11,12 with 5,9,10,14 with 2,7,8,10 $64.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,11 with 11 with 9,14 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 4,9 with 9,14 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 11 with 1,7,8,11 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 11 with 9,14 with 6,9 $4.00
Total: $84.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 3:37 EDT / 12:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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