Since SoCal racing is partying at the LA County Fair, I decided to move my action to the east coast today. I’ll be taking a swing at the all grass Late Pick Four at Belmont Park, starting with:
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf Course
# 1 Sweet Potato (Morning Line 6-1) makes her fourth career start today for owner Bobby Flay, her second under the tutelage of Trainer James Toner, after having previously run for conditioners Todd Pletcher and Marty Jones. This will be Sweet Potato’s first time routing, though she did charge down the hill in her debut at Santa Anita. Worth noting: two of the three winners in Sweet Potato’s prior starts came back to win again after earning their diploma (the third, Cavetto (GB) has not yet returned to the track since breaking her maiden).
# 2 Weave (ML 10-1) makes her second career start for Trainer Graham Motion and also gets a change in rider, swapping Alan Garcia for John Velazquez. Weave endured a series of bumps with Can’t Catch Kate at the start in her debut, and then had to come four wide in the stretch. Except a better trip this time out.
# 4 Toy Land (ML 7-2) made her debut for Trainer Bill Mott back in January down in Florida at Gulfstream Park, and hasn’t competed since. Mott does quite well with runners coming back after a long vacation, winning with approximately 27% of his charges that run after a rest of over 180 days. Edgar Prado, who was on top for that Florida run, will be back in the saddle today.
# 5 Jewel Kat (ML 3-1) flashed some early speed in her debut at Monmouth Park back in July, before losing ground in the stretch and settling for second best. Jewel Kat has the best Tomlinson Turf/Distance Rating in this field, which is not unexpected considering the presence of both In Excess (grandsire) and A.P. Indy (damsire) in her bloodlines. Garrett Gomez will be onboard today.
# 6 Cloture (ML 10-1) rises back up to the MSW class after running with a $75k price tag on her head last time out, back in December of 2012. Note the winner of that event was Emotional Kitten, Place horse in this year’s Grade 1 American Oaks and the Show horse in last month’s Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. In addition to making her three year old debut, Cloture will be getting lasix for the first time today; Trainer Shug McGaughey connects with a .36 Winning Percentage with runners taking the drug for the first time, and has a .17 Winning Percentage with horses competing after a vacation of more than half a year. Jockey Junior Alvarado gets the ride today.
# 7 Medea (Ire) (ML 4-1) took the Place last time out in her stateside debut, finishing three lengths behind Formative, who came back to win again her next time out. Medea has yet to finish out of the money in her four career starts, though in two of those she disappointed as the favorite. Like several others here, Medea is returning after a long layoff, having not competed since February. Trainer (and Owner) Francis Abbott III gets 17% winners from his charges returning after a greater than six month layoff (in a very small sample size). Note that Abbott brings in Jockey Forest Boyce for the ride.
If I were focusing on the Win Pool, I’d probably have most of my action going to # 7 Medea; though taking a swing for price with # 6 Cloture would certainly be a viable option. As far as Pick Four strategy goes, I figure to cast a pretty wide net in this one, as this looks to be a very competitive affair.
RACE 8 - (F) The Noble Damsel Stakes (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf Course
# 1 Naples Bay (ML 6-1) is the returning champ, having taken this event last year (and paying $28.00 to Win in the process). That event was also the last time that Naples Bay has visited the Winner’s Circle, as she has taken the collar (with two Place finishes) in her five starts since. Jockey Garrett Gomez gets the mount today.
# 2 Assateague (ML 6-1) looks to be the quickest of this bunch, and could steal this one on the front end. Assateague enters this contest with a two race winning streak, which includes her victory in the state restricted De La Rose Stakes her last time out. That race is notable because Assateague won by sitting just off the pace rather than leading the pack (Assateague’s usual running style); though that may owe more to the fact that she bobbled at the break, rather than representing a change in running style. Jockey Luis Saez, who was on Assateague’s back for her last two wins, gets the mount again today.
# 3 Better Lucky (ML 9-5) gets some class relief today, having competed in nothing but Grade 1 or Grade 2 events since May of 2012. With that said, one has to wonder if this is just a prep for this four year old filly, as it’s her first start since taking the Place in the Grade 1 Just A Game Stakes in June, and just her third start of the year. At her best she’s the one to beat here; but don’t be surprised if she doesn’t go all out.
# 4 Laugh Out Loud (GB) (ML 5-1) disappointed as the Post Time Favorite her last time out in the aforementioned De La Rose Stakes, her first start for Trainer Chad Brown. The problem in that event was that Laugh Out Loud did not settle early, and then didn’t have enough left at the end. Perhaps it may be best to send her early in this one to keep Assateague from getting an easy head start on the field. Laugh Out Loud gets a new rider today, as Jockey Edgar Prado replaces JJ Castellano, who will be on top of # 3 Better Lucky.
# 5 Peace Preserver (ML 10-1), trained by Todd Pletcher, is winless since capturing The Pebbles Stakes last October. going oh-for-five since that event; twice disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in that span. Jockey Irad Ortiz, who rode Peace Preserve to a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Beaugay Stakes, gets the mount again today; as Peace Preserver’s usual jockey, John Velazquez, will be onboard # 6 Hungry Island.
# 6 Hungry Island (ML 2-1) won a conditioned Allowance back in April at Keeneland; that race was the only start for Hungry Island in a nine race span that was not either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 event. Hard to say that she’s getting class relief here, as the presence of # 3 Better Lucky makes this field somewhat tougher than your typical Grade 3 affair. Not sure what to make of her last; perhaps she just needed the race; or maybe the years are catching up to this five year old mare.
While both # 3 Better Lucky and # 6 Hungry Island are capable of winning at higher levels, there are enough red flags with each runner to suggest that they may not be at peak form. If # 4 Laugh Out Loud can return to the form that she displayed in Europe, she will certainly be in the mix; and if she gets ignored in the betting as the money rolls in on the top two favorites, Hungry Island could be a serious overlay in the Win Pool.
RACE 9 - (F) The Garden City (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Inner Turf Course
# 1 Emollient (ML 3-1), winner of the Grade 1 American Oaks, and # 2 Discreet Marq (ML 7-2) winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, are the top two contenders in this event. Of the two, I prefer Discreet Marq. Looking at Brisnet’s Pace Figures from each of their Grade 1 victories, Discreet Marq was quicker both early and late than Emollient. Also note that Discreet Marq already has a win on this Belmont inner turf course (as well as a victory over Belmont’s Widener Turf Course); Emollient has yet to run on New York grass. While these are both very capable horses, I feel Discreet Marq has an edge over Emollient in this one; a slight edge, perhaps; but still an edge.
# 4 Alterite (ML 4-1) makes her stateside debut for Trainer Chad Brown, who does very well with such (.33 Winning Percentage). But a look at Alterite’s form suggests that she does her best running when the grass is less than firm. Jockey Johnny V gets the mount today.
# 6 Summer of Fun (ML 8-1) would be entering this one with a three race winning streak if not for losing the photo to Emotional Kitten in the Hilltop Stakes. Summer of Fun looks to be in top form, and certainly has been working well; the question is, can she win at this level?
I’m currently leaning heavily towards making # 2 Discreet Marq my single “A” in this one, a move that would allow me to go deeper in the other legs of the Pick Four. We’ll see later how it all shakes out.
RACE 10 - OC 35k/SAL 35k - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf Course
# 3 Exporter (ML 4-1) won at this level his last time out, part of a five race streak in which Exporter won trice while twice taking the Place. But that event was back in May; and Trainer Carl Domino has just a .07 Winning Percentage when bringing horses back from a two-to-six month vacation. Also note the late rider change, as Javier Castellano opts to ride # 13 Herbert Hall (who drew in with the scratch of # 10 Hot Sand) and has been replaced with Joe Rocco Jr.
# 4 Smoke Town (ML 12-1) comes back after a nice freshening for a trainer (Linda Rice) who connects 18% of the time with runners coming back after a 31-60 day rest. Smoke Town showed an ability to rate his last time out, which was his first time trying two turns. The blinkers come off today, which further suggests that Smoke Town should be coming late.
# 6 Why Not Whisky (ML 6-1) moves up to open company from the state bred ranks. Why Not Whisky has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, with the exception of # 2 Dreamsgonewild (but note that Dreamsgonewild earned his Beyer in a five and a half furlong sprint). There appears to be a lot of early speed in this one, which would be to Why Not Whisky’s advantage, as he tends to do his best running late.
# 7 Foolish Tiger (ML 15-1) was in the mix his last time out, losing by less than three lengths at this level at Saratoga. Foolish Tiger has a late running style that should suit him well today. And don’t underestimate apprentice jockey Manuel Franco, who has enjoyed some success in the early days of this meet, winning four of his first twenty-four races.
# 9 Vinny Goodtimes (ML 8-1) took the show at Saratoga his last time out, his third career start, and his first try against winners. The bullet work on 9/6 suggests that Vinny Goodtimes came out of that one well, and should be in the mix today.
# 11 Short Shrift (ML 10-1) takes a step up the class ladder for Trainer Jack Fisher, who does quite well getting his winners to do it again (.21 Winning Percentage with horses that won their last start). Note that Fisher also does well with runners (like Short Shrift) returning from a layoff of 31-60 days, winning 15% of the time with such.
# 12 Southern Tier (ML 7-2) has been knocking at the door against this level or better in each of his last four starts. The only time Southern Tier has brought forth a truly poor effort was when he tried stakes competition in his second career start. Jockey Alex Solis, who was onboard for each of Southern Tier’s last three races, will be along for the ride again today.
# 13 Hebert Hall (ML 5-1) is two-for-two on the Belmont grass; but both of those wins were over the inner turf course, where early speed generally holds up better than it does on the Widener Turf Course. Also note that the one time in his last ten that Herbert Hall tried routing he finished last, over sixteen lengths back of the winner.
Were I playing the Win Pool, I would probably key on # 12 Southern Tier, while # 6 Why Not Whisky would be a good one to play for price. This one looks competitive; I expect to lean heavily on those who do their best running late when putting together my Pick Four play.
Post time for Race 7 is 4:37 EDT / 1:37 PDT. I’ll be back soon to post my Pick Four tickets.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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