6/30/12 CRC Race 7 - American Dreamer Stakes - Preview

Quite frankly, this race at Calder today is a lot less interesting now that Trainer Martin Wolfson has scratched # 1 Fortin.  Still, with change comes opportunity; so here's some quick thoughts on the remaining field:


# 2 Two Is to Many (Morning Line 6-1) should have the lead all to himself, especially with Fortin out of the picture.  Morning Line favorite # 5 Empire Builder (ML 9-5) may be forced to the front sooner than he'd like in order to keep Two Is to Many to an honest pace.  # 4 Ravelo's Boy (ML 3-1) makes his first start since The Belmont.  While Ravelo's Boy is getting a huge class relief from his last several starts, he's a stone cold closer in what shapes up to be a paceless race, and is therefore unlikely to improve on his career best Beyer of 80.  


# 6 Musical Flair (4-1) had a fine beginning to his career, winning three of his first five races, two of which were listed stakes.  However, since his last victory, Musical Flair hasn't finished within four lengths of the winner in five tries, mostly against company similar to what he will be facing today.  #7 Mucho Mas Macho (ML 15-1) makes his first start on dirt since last year.  Mucho Mas Macho's Beyers over his last three races show steady improvement, but are not close to what it will take to win this race, and it's unclear if the surface switch will help put this gelding over the top. # 3 El Romano (ML 8-1), like Empire Builder and Musical Flair, is probably better suited to the turf than dirt  (note that those three are a combined six-for-twelve on the grass, while being a combined two-for-fourteen on a fast dirt track).  Hard to imagine El Romano topping this field today.


Bottom Line:  Lone speed loose on the lead is often considered the best bet in the game, and that's the position Two Is to Many should find himself in today.  If the public insists on making Empire Builder the favorite, Two Is to Many's appeal is that much greater.


Good luck to all.


Peace and Love,


Jimbo