The Preakness Stakes - Wrap Up

"Hey, aren't you the guy who wrote that the Preakness shapes up to be won by someone running late?"

Yes; yes I am.

"So what happened?"

Well, to understand what happened in the Preakness, it helps to first take another look at the chart of the Kentucky Derby.

If you scroll down to the Past Performance Running Line Preview section of that chart, you'll see the story of a pace collapse that allowed closers to garner all the top spots as the field crossed the wire.  You could call that the “race shape”; it’s how the pace of the race played a role in the final outcome.

Now, suppose you wanted to know which horse in the Derby field did the best job of battling the “race shape”; that is, suppose you wanted to know which horse among those that were closest to the pace meltdown had the best finish.  Well, if you look at that PP Running Line Preview section and scan down the 3/4 mile column, you’ll see where each horse was at that point in the race (i.e., the point of the Derby six furlongs in, with four furlongs of the race still to be run) in the order of their final position.  Doing so gives you:

17
15
18
6
16
2
14
11
8
9
13

You can see that the Kentucky Derby winner, Orb, was 17th at the 3/4 mile mark; while the Place horse in the Derby, Golden Soul, was 15th at that point; and so on down the line.  Notice that of the Top Eleven finishers in the Kentucky Derby, only one, the horse that finished sixth, was in the Top Five when the race had gone six furlongs.  That is, only one horse who was part of the early blistering pace, a horse who was in second place at the 3/4 mile mark, was able to hang on to finish in one of the Top Eleven positions, crossing the wire sixth.

And that horse was Oxbow.

Now, was that enough to steer a handicapper to bet Oxbow to Win today?  Well, speaking just for this handicapper, the answer (much to my regret) is no.  The reason why is because, while Oxbow finished best among those who were a part of the Derby pace meltdown, he was still well back in sixth.  If the pace was to meltdown again in the Preakness, there was no reason to believe that Oxbow would improve upon his Derby results.

And a look at the field suggested that the pace today would indeed be fast and contested, and that it would therefore once again meltdown.

But it wasn't; and it didn't.

Gary Stevens grabbed the early lead aboard Oxbow, and no one went after him to contest that lead.

Now, while I don't have access to what the riders in the Preakness were thinking, I will say that it’s fair to presume that the other jockeys’ judgement played a key role in each of them choosing not to go after Oxbow early.  For example, Kevin Krigger, aboard Goldencents, may have still been feeling the burn from his speed duel in the Derby with Palace Malice, and decided that this time he would let someone else go after the leader early.  Titletown Five, another horse who is usually found on the lead early, was ridden today by Julien Leparoux, a jockey who prefers to come off the pace.  Martin Garcia, riding Governor Charlie, may not have had enough horse to take on Oxbow in the early going.

And so there was Oxbow, a very good horse loose on the lead, setting very comfortable fractions of 23.94 for the first quarter, 48.60 for the half, and 1:13.26 for six furlongs.  Compare that to the Derby fractions of 22.57 / 45.33 / 1:09.80 and you can see that Oxbow was practically cantering around the track relative to what the early leaders in the Derby were doing. Heck, you can even continue this comparison out to the one mile mark; for while the first mile of the Derby took 1:36.16 to complete, Oxbow ran the first eight furlongs of the Preakness nearly two seconds slower, in 1:38.14.

And that was the race.

By getting a clear lead with an easy pace, Jockey Gary Stevens had Oxbow with a three length lead at the top  of the stretch, with virtually all of Oxbow's energy still in reserve.  So, basically, Stevens turned the mile and three sixteenths race into a sprint of less than two furlongs, where his horse had a three length head start over the rest of the field.  At that point, the race was no contest.

So once again, pace made the race.

But not entirely.

Let's take another look at the chart of the Preakness; and let's do with it the same thing we did with the Derby chart; that is, let's look at the PP Running Line Preview section of the Preakness chart and scan down it to see where each horse was at a specific point in the race, in the order of each horse's final position.  Only this time, let's do it for the 1/2 mile column rather than the 3/4 column (not that it makes that big of a difference, but it will help to more clearly illustrate a point).  Doing so gives you:

1
4
9
5
2
6
8
7
3

Just to be sure everyone is still following along, the above shows that the eventual winner of the Preakness, Oxbow, was in first place at the 1/2 mile call; that is, after the first half mile of the Preakness had been run, Oxbow was in first place.  The eventual second place finisher in the Preakness, Itsmyluckyday, was in fourth place at that point in the race; and so on down the line.

So what does the above line show?  Well, even though Oxbow was setting nice, comfortable fractions up front, those who were closest to him at the 1/2 mile mark (that is, the horses who were second and third at that point) weren't able to keep up.  Had those two horses (Goldencents and Titletown Five, respectively) been able to keep pace with Oxbow (and, with those nice soft fractions, there's no good reason why they shouldn't) they would have continued to be second and third around the track, with the race resembling a merry-go-round, where all the horses go around and around, never passing each other.

But that's not what happened.

Goldencents would finish fifth, while Titletown Five would finish last.  Itsmyluckyday, fourth at the 1/2 mile mark, was able to finish second (making up nearly four lengths on the leader Oxbow during that final part of the race) while Mylute moved up from ninth to grab the Show, going from nine and a quarter lengths back at the 1/2 mile point to finish just two and a quarter lengths behind the winner.  

For the record, Itsmyluckyday and Mylute were the only horses in the field to be closer to Oxbow at the finish than they were at the 1/2 mile mark (in terms of number of lengths behind).

Orb, who finished fourth, just did not have a good day; for while he was able to move up from fifth place to fourth in the final stages of the race, Orb actually lost ground on the leader during that span, going from five and three quarter lengths back at the 1/2 mile mark to nine lengths behind Oxbow at the finish.

So while pace did indeed make the race, there was more than that to Oxbow's victory; as the signs were there in the Derby that this was a horse that stood to move forward.  Congrats to all who had him; and a special salute to our good buddy Jeff G, who nailed the Oxbow / Itsmyluckyday Exacta, and the Oxbow / Itsmyluckyday / Mylute Trifecta by correctly predicting that Orb would bounce off his performance in the Derby, and underperform in the Preakness.

Onto the next race.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo