EDIT / WARNING / BEWARE: Declan's Warrior has been scratched from The Peter Pan. Rather than take my chances with the Post Time Favorite, I've decided to just cancel my play. I've left the original analysis up so we can see how that would have done. - Jimbo
As I type this, the main track at Belmont is sloppy, and everything is being kept off the grass. So let's get to it:
RACE 7
# 1 Joe Alan (Morning Line 7-2) makes his first start for a barn that hits at a 15% clip when running horses first time off a claim. Joel Rosario, who is proving that he can win wherever he goes, gets the mount today, and should insure Joe Alan gets a better trip than he did his last time out.
# 2 Gold Buffalo (ML 8-1) comes from a sire who gets 16% debut winners from his offspring, and is running for a conditioner that hits at a 28% rate when sending them out for the first time. Gold Buffalo also has the best Wet Tomlinson Rating in the field.
RACE 8
# 2 Quiet Power (ML 6-5) recorded a career best Beyer Speed Figure of 83 last time out while running for the first time for Trainer Rudy Rodriguez; a repeat of that mark should beat this bunch.
# 6 Mississippi Duel (ML 10-1) broke his maiden at Belmont over a track that was muddy (sealed). Javier Castellano, who was on board for that victory, gets the mount again today.
# 9 Amberjack (ML 7-2) goes for a barn that wins a third of the time when running entrants they've picked up from other trainers. Amberjack's lone win came on a sloppy (sealed) track at today's distance of eight furlongs. The attempt to compete outside the state bred ranks last time out put this colt in over his head; he should have an easier time making the lead today.
RACE 9 - The Peter Pan
# 1 Freedom Child (ML 12-1) could get loose on the lead against this group, especially if he's not held back again at the start. Freedom Child's lone win came at today's distance of nine furlongs.
# 8 Declan's Warrior (ML 4-1) is the only horse in the field with a Graded Stakes win, having taken the Bay Shore at Aqueduct his last time out. Declan's Warrior is just a neck shy of being undefeated. Declan's Warrior has the best last out Beyer in this field, the best career Beyer in this field, and the best Wet Tomlinson Rating in this field. Declan's Warrior is also one of only two horses in this field to have a win over the Belmont main track. The only question here is the distance; but with A. P. Indy (winner of the 1992 Peter Pan and Belmont Stakes) as grandsire and Saint Ballado (winner of the 1992 Arlington Classic) as damsire, I think the breeding is there for Declan's War to still be strong at the finish.
RACE 10
# 2 Scandalo (ML 7-5) has been competitive at Maiden Claiming levels a class step above today's competition.
# 5 Moonshine Ridge (ML 6-1) had his best race (and only in the money finish) in his only off-track event; which you would expect from a horse with the best Wet Tomlinson Rating in the field.
# 7 Smokey Brown (ML 8-1) is from a sire (Big Brown) that does quite well with debuters. Running him for a tag so far below his purchase price of $120k could be a red flag; but the presence of Junior Alvarado in the saddle suggests that the connections are in this one to win.
# 14 Economic Forecast (ML 2-1); # 15 Derby Watch (ML 7-2); and # 16 Dapper Draper (ML 5-1) are the three Main Track Only entrants. I'll be using them all.
So, with all that, and without getting too fancy, we can just go caveman style with the following Pick Four ticket:
RACE 7: 1, 2
RACE 8: 2, 6, 9
RACE 9: 1, 8
RACE 10: 2, 5, 7, 14, 15, 16
EDIT: With the scratch of Declan Warrior I have cancelled this play.
Play it for fifty cents and the whole thing will cost you $36.00
Post time for Race 7 is 3:13 EDT / 12:13 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDIT: OK, Declan's Warrior is scratched. Rather than gamble on the Post Time Favorite, I've decided to just cancel my play. The analysis has been left up just so that we can check later and see how it would have done. - Jimbo
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