And we're back.
Vegas was, as it always is, fantastic. By the Grace of God, all Derby Crew members were able to make it last weekend; and that's what makes these occasions the special events that they are. Having close friends that you can get together with and share some fun and laughs is worth more than any winning Pick Six ticket. As with all things in life, there's no guarantees that we'll ever have another Derby Weekend together; but here's praying that The Good Lord will allow us to do this many, many more times in the future.
It's only right that I also take a moment here to give a special shout out to Bert Cirincione. Bert is the Director of Race and Sports Satellite Operations over at Green Valley Ranch. That's the place where we played on both Oaks and Derby Day; and to say that we were well taken care of would be the understatement of the year.
The casino is easily accessible, and well laid out. Bert and all the employees in the Race and Sports Book at GVR made sure that we all felt right at home, exceeding all our expectations with their Grade A customer service. If you're planning a Vegas trip, and expect to spend any time at all in a Race and Sports Book, you owe it to yourself to check out Green Valley Ranch. Oh, and if you go there and stick around for dinner, be sure to stop by the Terra Verde for some classic Italian food (I can personally recommend the veal parmigiana).
As to the Kentucky Derby itself: before leaving for Nevada, I gave some guidelines as to what I would be looking for in my Derby selection. Let's take a look and see how the actual Derby winner, Orb, stacks up to the qualifications I laid out.
BREEDING: Can he go the ten furlongs? Check those Tomlinson Dst Ratings and/or the Brisnet Dis counterpart, and see which entrants rank the highest. Oh, and be sure also to take a look at those Turf ratings as well; for whatever reason, horses bred for the grass seem to do well on the Churchill Downs main track (see Animal Kingdom, for example) . And, of course, if the rains should come, make sure you know who's best bred to run on the off track.
Orb's Tomlinson Dst Rating ranked seventh in the field of nineteen that went to post. Orb's Tomlinson Turf Rating ranked thirteenth in the field. The rains did come Saturday, and Orb's Wet Tomlinson Rating ranked fourth in the field.
BACK SPEED - While having the best last-out speed figure is worth noting, more important is making sure your selection has somewhere, sometime in his career shown the ability to run with the best of them. Be sure to give weight to those horses that have posted a Triple Digit Beyer at least once.
Prior to the Kentucky Derby, Orb had never posted a Triple Digit Beyer in his career.
POST POSITION - Significantly downgrade whichever poor soul draws the Number One Post Position; likewise for Number Two. Pray that we never see the day when one of these horses run straight into the rail the lies dead ahead in their path out of the gate.
Orb was in neither Post Position One or Two.
TRACK BIAS - Watch those early races! In fact, watch Friday's races as well. If speed's not coming back, or if deep closers are sweeping the card, you want to know that before the Derby is run; it does you no good to know that afterwards.
With the exception of the first race (which was run prior to the pouring rain turning the track sloppy), the eventual winner of every race on the dirt Saturday (including those run after the Derby) was either first or second at second call (the half-mile point). That is, every race except the Kentucky Derby, as Orb was sixteenth at the half-mile mark.
Finally, I had suggested in a prior post that the Kentucky Derby winner is normally a horse that breaks its maiden either its first or second time out. It took Orb four tries in order to get that first win.
At least I was right about the Post Position.
Oh well; onto the next race.
So what happened Saturday? Well, a look at the Equibase chart of the race tells the tale of a too fast pace burning out all the frontrunners, allowing closers to grab all the top spots. Here's a list of the top five finishers in the Kentucky Derby, and where they were at the six furlong mark:
1) Orb - 17th
2) Golden Soul - 15th
3) Revolutionary - 18th
4) Normandy Invasion - 6th
5) Mylute - 16th
Is there precedent for such a pace meltdown in the Derby? Certainly; for just one example, take a look at the chart of the 2005 running, and where those top five finishers were at the six furlong mark:
1) Giacomo - 18th
2) Closing Argument - 6th
3) Afleet Alex - 9th
4) Don't Get Mad - 19th
5) Buzzards Bay - 7th
Pace does indeed make the race; even when it's the biggest race of the year.
By the way, none of this is to take anything away from Orb's achievement. Pace meltdown or no pace meltdown, Orb ran an incredible race, making (in the words of the chart caller) "a bold six wide move" to come from well back to win clear and prove himself to be much the best. Likewise, Orb's record leading up to the Derby speaks well for his ability, having shown himself capable of coming from behind to win not one but two Graded Stakes on the speed favoring Gulfstream Park main track. Orb is a deserving Derby winner, and a horse in which his connections can feel justifiably proud.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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