"I have never been able to think of the day as one of mourning; I have never quite been able to feel that half-masted flags were appropriate on Decoration Day. I have rather felt that the flag should be at the peak, because those whose dying we commemorate rejoiced in seeing it where their valor placed it. We honor them in a joyous, thankful, triumphant commemoration of what they did." - Benjamin Harrison
And so we in the United States honor those who have died for their country, as we celebrate the freedoms for which they gave their lives.
It's shaping up to be a beautiful day at Belmont Park Monday, with a fast track and a firm turf. There'll be three Pick Fours on the day; I'll be focusing on the one in the middle, comprised of all Graded Stakes events.
RACE 7 - THE SANDS POINT (Grade 2)
This one's on grass; the Inner Turf Course, to be exact. Generally speaking, pace isn't as important on grass as it is on dirt; well, not usually. But the Morning Line favorite, # 2 Discreet Marq (ML 5-2) has such an early speed advantage over the rest of the field, that she could easily steal this one on the front end.
On the flip side, Discreet Marq has never competed in, let alone won, a Graded Stakes. Not that this is an especially classy field; but the jump from a listed stakes to a Grade 2 is significant.
So the question was whether or not to single Discreet Marq in my multi-race picks, or to hedge a bit and include # 5 Unbelievable Dream (ML 7-2), winner of the Grade 3 Appalachia Stakes her last time out, in the mix. As an added data point, Unbelievable Dream will have Joel Rosario on her back today.
Ultimately, I decided to use both horses on all my Pick Four Tickets.
RACE 8 - THE ODGEN PHIPPS HANDICAP (Grade 1)
# 1 Joyful Victory (ML 7-5) sure looks like a standout in this field, having taken the Grade 1 Santa Margarita at Santa Anita her last time out, and earning a 108 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. But as everyone who watched Dreaming of Julia finish more than six lengths back in the Kentucky Oaks knows, standouts don't always win.
# 5 Disposablepleasure (ML 6-1), has been the Post Time favorite five times in her thirteen career starts. Disposablepleasure has won four of those five races; failing only in her second career start, when she was still a maiden. Disposablepleasure has won none of her other eight career starts; the eight where she wasn’t the Post Time favorite.
There’s something good to be said about a horse that can be counted on to win when it is perceived by the public as being the best in the field.
There’s something not so good to be said about a horse that does not overcome obstacles to win when it is not perceived by the public as being the best in the field.
I feel that I should comment on some of the interesting horse swapping going on among the jockeys in the Ogden Phipps:
Rosie Napravnik has ridden # 6 Believe You Can (ML 4-1) the last eight times the four year old filly has competed. But today Rosie jumps off Believe You Can to ride the other Larry Jones entry, Joyful Victory, whom she rode to a joyful victory in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes @ Santa Anita last month.
Meanwhile, Trainer Todd Pletcher also has two entries in the Ogden Phipps: # 3 Authenticity (ML 3-1) and the previously discussed Disposablepleasure. As you would expect of Todd Pletcher stakes-quality horses, both have been ridden to victory in the past by John Velazquez; but Johnny V won’t be riding either of them today, opting instead to ride Believe You Can.
The mount for Authenticity will go to Mike Smith, who is in town to ride Trainer Bob Baffert’s Fed Biz in Race 10 - The Met Mile (though Smith won’t be riding the Baffert entry Midnight Lucky in Race 9 - The Acorn; as that mount goes to Napravnik; with Midnight Lucky’s usual jockey, Rafael Bejarano, opting to stay in California).
RACE 9 - THE ACORN (Grade 1)
# 1 Kauai Katie (ML 1-1) has only one loss in her career. Perhaps not so coincidentally, that one loss came in her only prior attempt in a Grade 1 contest. However, this is a much softer field than the one she faced that day, as none of the six entrants competing in today's event has ever finished in the money, let alone won, a Grade 1 stakes. Bottom line: if Kauai Katie runs to form, she wins.
# 5 Midnight Lucky (ML 7-5) is the only other entrant in this field to have ever earned a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure. Midnight Lucky obviously wanted no part of the nine furlongs of the Kentucky Oaks, and should appreciate the turn back in distance. As referenced above, Midnight Lucky will be competing for the first time in her career without Rafael Bejarano on her back, as Rosie Napravnik will be holding the reins today.
RACE 10 - THE METROPOLITAN HANDICAP (Grade 1)
This one looks formful enough that I'm tempted to just go with the top two Morning Line selections: # 6 Flat Out (ML 5-2) and # 1 Cross Traffic (ML 3-1), the two horses who formed the Exacta in last month’s Grade 3 Westchester Stakes.
But I'm going to err a bit on the side of caution, and toss in a few others on a secondary ticket. After all, if the Westchester took too much out of both Flat Out and Cross Traffic, then it’s possible that, say, # 3 Mark Valeski (ML 5-1), winner of last year’s Peter Pan Stakes over this track, could cross the wire first.
I also like the Trifecta from the Grade 1 Carter Handicap (# 5 Swagger Jack (ML 12-1); # 7 Sahara Sky (ML 6-1); and # 2 Discreet Dancer (ML 6-1)); interesting that the winner of the Carter is the one with the highest Morning Line odds of the trio.
And what to do with #9 Fed Biz (ML 15-1)? Why would Baffert ship this horse all the way from SoCal? And why would Mike Smith come all this way as well just to ride him (because, remember from above, Smith won't be riding the Baffert trained Midnight Lucky in the Acorn).
If Flat Out and Cross Traffic run to form, they leave the rest of this bunch behind. But if those two bounce from their efforts in the Westchester, then this could become a chaos race.
So with all that, I'll be putting in the following fifty cent Pick Four tickets:
RACE 7: 2, 5
RACE 8: ALL
RACE 9: 1, 5
RACE 10: 1, 6, 7
COST: $36.00
RACE 7: 2, 5
RACE 8: 1, 2, 3
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 2, 3, 5, 9
COST: $12.00
RACE 7: 2, 5
RACE 8: 1
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 1, 6
COST: $2.00
TOTAL COST: $50.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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