Well, as I'm sure you've all heard by now, the pot got scooped at Gulfstream Friday; as a single winning ticket, purchased for $3,118.50 at the Meadowlands in New Jersey, returned $3,591,245.44 for the ten cent bet. For posterity, the winning Rainbow Six horses were:
RACE 5: #1 Keyner Veloz 56-1
RACE 6: #9 Original Cast 9-2
RACE 7: #8 Odalys Halo 17-1
RACE 8: #6 Artie’s Jasper 7-1
RACE 9: #4 Mays Treasuretrove 10-1
RACE 10: #7 Feline Forum 10-1
The article doesn't say if the winning ticket was purchased by an individual or a syndicate; so, whether the winner was one or many, congratulations, and may God's blessings be with them. As for the rest of us: onto the next race!
I'd be less than honest if I didn't say that not having a huge jackpot at stake doesn't zap a lot of the enthusiasm out of playing the card; but, on the other hand, there's no need to go deeper than necessary out of fear of missing out on a seven figure payout. With that, I've put together the following play; which, hopefully, will at least give us some action this Saturday afternoon.
RACE 7
# 8 Crop Report (Morning Line 5-1) won his last time out at Newmarket by wiring the field in an eight furlong contest. As my close personal friend Geno loves to point out, horses that show the ability to win on the front end in Great Britain tend to do very well here in the States. Note also that Trainer Graham Motion does insanely well when conditioning a horse for its first North American start (40% win rate with a $3.92 ROI).
RACE 8
# 11 Achilles (ML 7-2) takes another stab at this level after missing by two lengths in his third career start. If he repeats that 89 Beyer he'll be right in the mix at the finish; if he gets any boost at all from being on Lasix for the first time, he'll have the rest of the field in his rear view mirror. The far outside post, however, is a concern.
# 6 Eternal Ruler (Ire) (ML 6-1) is one for three on the Gulfstream Park grass, and lost by less than a length against this class his last time out. The fact that Edgar Prado returns for the ride should be viewed as a plus.
# 9 Dominant Jeannes (ML 10-1) won at this level at Aqueduct back in November. He has the early speed to steal this one on the front end, and with the blinkers back on I expect Jockey Joe Rocco Jr. to have the pedal to the metal as soon as the gate springs open.
RACE 9 - The Davona Dale
# 3 Dreaming of Julia (ML 4-5) is the only entrant in this field with a Grade 1 victory; in fact, she's the only filly in this field to have ever competed in a graded stakes. # 1 Private Ensign (ML 4-1) would be better served in a contest with more pace; but if # 4 Live Lively (ML 5-2), whom I did not include on my ticket, should hook Dreaming of Julia into a speed duel, then look for Private Ensign to pick up the pieces in the stretch.
RACE 10 - The Canadian Turf
# 4 Data Link (ML 2-1) is clearly the best of this bunch, and the abundance of speed plays right into his late running hooves. So why haven't I singled him in this race? Well, for one, this is just a prep for Data Link; you can be sure that his connections have their sights on bigger prizes, and this race is meant to be a conditioner. Also, look at Data Link's form when coming off a break; he was fourth in an overnight stakes at Belmont; he was third in this event last year; he was second in a Grade 2 at Saratoga; and he won a Grade 2 at Hollywood. That's a 25% Win Rate from a horse that has won more than half of all his other career races (six of eleven). Again, Data Link is the clear class of this field, and at his best should win with ease; but I just see too many red flags to make him a single here.
# 10 Za Approval (ML 5-1) has been in the Exacta all four times that he's been on the Gulfstream grass. His ability to run down the early leaders will be quite useful here. # 2 Beau Choix (ML 6-1) also prefers to come from behind, Beau Choix has been showing steady improvement (as measured by his Beyer Speed Figures) over his last three races, and the bullet works show that he has the afterburners to turn on when the time comes.
RACE 11 - The Fountain of Youth
# 3 Violence (ML 9-5) is a perfect three-for-three for his career, his last two coming in graded stakes events three thousand miles apart. He is the only graded stakes winner in this field, and Trainer Todd Pletcher, in addition to all his other credentials, is having a sensational meet, sitting atop the Gulfstream Park leader board with a 33% Winning Percentage (36 victories in 110 tries). The bullet work by Violence last Sunday just underscores his readiness for this contest.
RACE 12
# 1 Sevenoaks (ML 10-1) has great looking Tomlinsons for both Turf (352) and Turf Distance (384). # 5 Forever Thing (ML 7-2) is a first time starter for a trainer (Pletcher) who wins about a third of the time with debuters. # 7 Summer Shiner (ML 6-1) and # 10 Bad Hombre (ML 6-1) both earned a 69 Beyer their last time out, races which were grass events at this approximate distance. # 6 Surfspun (ML 8-1) puts on the hood and stretches out for a trainer (Jerimiah Englehart) who does quite well with both angles (37% and 22%, respectively).
So, putting it all together, we get the following ticket:
RACE 7: 8
RACE 8: 6 / 9 / 11
RACE 9: 1 / 3
RACE 10: 2 / 4 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 1 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 10
Play it for a dime and the whole thing will cost you nine bucks.
Post Time is 3:35 EST / 12:35 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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