RACE 4 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Sunrise Legacy (Morning Line 7-5)
# 6 Justamitch (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
# 1 Handsome Harvey Jr (ML 7-2) has seemingly made a career out of being just good enough to not get his picture taken, having finished in the Trifecta in seven of his sixteen career races on the Golden Gate main track without ever getting the Win. And Handsome Harvey Jr has done this at nearly all the steadily descending class levels at which he's competed, including this one two starts back. So it seems clear that Handsome Harvey Jr can win if he wants to; the question is, does he want to today? Maybe getting back into competition less than a week after his last race will fool Handsome Harvey Jr into thinking this is just a workout, and he'll run to his true level. But I'm betting that he doesn't; so if Handsome Harvey Jr wins today, this sequence will be over very quickly for us.
Sunrise Legacy took the Place last time out at this level, earning the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field in the process. Justamitch looks to be the clear pacesetter here; and his races from last year show that his speed does carry over from dirt to the synthetic.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Seattle Music (ML 2-1)
# 2 Eddies Little Lady (ML 15-1)
# 2 Eddies Little Lady (ML 15-1)
# 4 Prodicious Facts (ML 8-5)
# 5 Cochinero (ML 5-1)
C’s
None
Seattle Music took the Show at this class level two starts back. Eddies Little Lady flashed some early speed in her debut last time out, and adds blinkers today.
Prodicious Facts, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Show at this class level in her last start, albeit on turf. Cochinero is a first time starter by Comic Strip, whose progeny win about 10% of their debuts; not exactly eye-catching, but better than random chance, and the experienced runners here don't look all that menacing.
Prodicious Facts, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Show at this class level in her last start, albeit on turf. Cochinero is a first time starter by Comic Strip, whose progeny win about 10% of their debuts; not exactly eye-catching, but better than random chance, and the experienced runners here don't look all that menacing.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Alli Leigh (ML 3-1)
# 2 Casey's Clem (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
A’s
# 1 Alli Leigh (ML 3-1)
# 2 Casey's Clem (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
Alli Leigh took the Show against open (non-conditioned) $20k Claimers last time out; so this is a pretty big class drop. Casey's Clem ships in from downstate where she had been competing against state bred competition.
RACE 7 - (F) Alw 40000s N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Red Hot Rocket (ML 8-5)
# 6 Purims Faith (ML 6-1)
C's
None
# 3 Rosarita (ML 7-2) has been scratched.
Note that this Starter Allowance is an N2X, not an N2L. That's because the conditions make an exception for one win for $12.5k or less. Since Purims Faith's second career win was with a $12.5k price tag on her head, the conditions allow for her to compete against the others in this field who have just one career win each. And since Purims Faith is the only runner in the field to have defeated winners, she must be considered a contender here.
Red Hot Rocket has been steadily improving in each of her last three tries at this class level, getting progressively closer to the winner each time. If Red Hot Rocket takes another step forward today, she'll be the one getting her picture taken when this one is over.
RACE 8 - Clm $4k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Loop Current Eddie (ML 8-5)
# 4 Convinced Himself (ML 2-1)
C’s
None
The conditions for this one limit it to runners that have not won a race since Oct 15, 2014, OR which have never won four races in their career; HOWEVER, don't include claiming and starter allowances where the tag was $3.5k or less when counting to four or looking to see when the last victory was. That's why # 8 Peppered Pro (ML 5-1) is allowed in despite having seven career wins, two of which came past the Oct 15, 2014 cutoff: because those two wins came when Peppered Pro was competing with a $3.2k price tag on his head.
Loop Current Eddie took the Show at this level last time out. Loop Current Eddie was claimed in that event by Trainer John Martin, who gets approximately 21% winners from his runners going first off a claim. Convinced Himself defeated open $5k claimers two start back, in a victory just eleven days prior to the cutoff to be eligible for this contest.
RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
ALL
C’s
None
# 5 Time Jumper (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
With all due respect to Morning Line Favorite # 8 High Greeley (ML 8-5) this one looks to be very competitive. That's primarily because the only two times in his ten race career that High Greeley has gained on the leader in the stretch before the wire were in two races where he finished fifth and tenth, repectively. In other words, High Greeley looks like a runner that will get close, and then back off before they hit the Finish Line. Yeah, hitting the "ALL" button here is going to send us over budget, and it's going to look really foolish if High Greeley is an easy winner; but, when you've hit five-out-of six three straight times, you start to get more than just a little gun shy around races like this.
OK, that's the analysis. Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$0.20 P6: 5,6 with 1,2,4,5 with 1,2 with 2,6 with 3,4 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8 $89.60
Total: $89.60
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:18 EST / 2:18 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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