RACE 6 - (F) The Palos Verdes (Grade 2) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Distinctiv Passion (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 2 Big Macher (ML 5-2)
# 5 Wild Dude (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Speed dominates in this Graded Stakes for older sprinters, five of whom are making their 2015 debut (# 6 Chief Lion (ML 15-1) who competed on New Years Day, being the lone exception). Distinctiv Passion looks to be the quickest in the field, and he's got the rail - that's gonna be a tough combination for the others to overcome. Note that Distinctiv Passion has been a clear winner each of the last three times that he has drawn the Number 1 Post Position.
Big Macher finished well out of the money in each of his last two tries against Graded Stakes company; but the back class is certainly there, and Big Macher has been working well for this one. Wild Dude, winner of this event last year, is making his first start since April 2014; but Wild Dude has won off an extended vacation before, and the bullet work over this main track on 1/22 suggests that he should be ready to fire. If this contest is won late, Wild Dude looks that the one most likely to be closing at the wire.
RACE 7 - The Arcadia (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Kaigun (ML 5-2)
B's
# 6 El Nino Terrible (ML 12-1)
# 8 Za Approval (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
# 1 Play Hard to Get (ML 20-1) and # 7 Talco (Fr) (ML 8-1) have been scratched.
Kaigun, winner of the Grade 2 Seabiscut last time out, seems to be doing quite well stepping out from Wise Dan's shadow. Za Approval ran well (despite the wide trip) in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale last time out and took the Place behind Kaigun in the Seabiscut two starts back; perhaps Za Approval can turn the tables on Kaigun today.
El Nino Terrible makes his turf debut Saturday. His connections had tried to give him a turf start last time out, but that race (which El Nino Terrible won clear) was washed off the grass. El Nino Terrible's damsire is Giant's Causeway, so the turf breeding is there. If El Nino Terrible can get loose on the lead early, he just might steal this one on the front end.
RACE 8 - (F) The Las Virgenes (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Maybellene (ML 3-1)
B's
# 7 Callback (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
# 1 Glory (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
There are nine runners in this field, but if this contest was to be run under the old rules for entries, there would only be four betting interests in this race.
Maybellene, trained by Bob Baffert, has been showing steady improvement, earning a personal career best Beyer Speed Figure in each of her last three races. Last time out, Maybellene was less than a length behind Take Charge Brandi at the wire in the Grade 1 Starlet.
Callback is the "other" Baffert, though don't be surprised if she leaves the gate at lower odds than her stablemate Maybellene. Callback took a nice step forward last time out when she took the Place in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez, earning the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field in the process. Callback will lose the blinkers for this one, a move from which Trainer Baffert gets about 23% winners.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Nakamoto (ML 9-2)
B's
# 1 Miltee (ML 12-1)
# 3 Solomon Northup (ML 12-1)
# 7 Rockin Robin (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
# 13 Commander King (8-1) does not draw in from the Also Eligible List.
Nakamoto has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last three races. Miltee took the Show at this class level the last time that he ran eight furlongs on the grass instead of nine. Solomon Northup makes his North American debut after twice missing graduation by less than a length in Ireland. Rockin Robin took the Place last time out at this class level in a race where he was well ahead after eight furlongs had been run.
OK, that's the analysis; and, to be honest, it looks a little chalky. So what we're going to do, in addition to playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, is play a few tickets where we try to bring home three of our four "A's", and then maybe catch chaos in the remaining leg. So even though we have "None" listed in the "C" Selections above, technically every runner that we didn't use as an "A" or "B" is now a "C". So with all that, here are the tickets that we'll be punching:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 2 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5 with 4,6,8 with 2,7 with 1,3,7,8 $36.00
Three A's with ALL
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 2 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 8 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,3,4,5,6,8,9 with 2 with 8 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,6 with 4 with 2 with 8 $3.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:05 EST / 3:05 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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