Saturday, April 13, 2019

4/13/19 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

Long story short, it's all about the entries.  Santa Anita has a total of twenty-eight runners entered in its final four races on Saturday; Golden Gate has thirty-nine.  Larger fields tend to mean larger payoffs for exotic wagers, both intra-race and inter-race; but even more important, it's much more embarrassing to miss a Late Pick Four when three quarters of the races have only six runners.  So with that as background let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) [S] Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Heavenly Holiday (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 6 Coastal Starlite (ML 8-5)
# 7 Miss Boisterous (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Fiesty Coach (ML 20-1)
# 2 Secret Paranoia (ML 9-2)
# 4 Sinawava (ML 15-1)

# 5 Princess Run It (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sittin and Thinkin (ML 20-1)

Heavenly Holiday is the only entrant in this field to have visited the winner's circle multiple times.  Coastal Starlite took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.
  
Miss Boisterous was very impressive graduating last time out in her first ever try over the synthetic surface.  Also note that Miss Boisterous' trainer, Steve Miyadi, tends to do well when placing his last out maiden winners.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 10 Posit  (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Illapawnie (ML 9-2)
# 5 Hurley (ML 8-1)
# 6 Three Karyots (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Go Georgie Go (ML 20-1)
# 2 Spanish Magic (ML 8-1)
# 3 Sugarcharged (ML 20-1)
# 7 Able to Smile (ML 5-1)
# 9 Hermajestycommands (ML 12-1)
# 11 Premiere Lady (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 8 Biancas Mandate (ML 12-1)

Posit and Hurley are a pair of invaders from downstate who may appreciate their new surroundings.  Three Karyots and Illapawnie filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - Clm $16k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 On the Key (ML 10-1)

B’s

# 9 Zip the Monkey (ML 5-1)
# 10 Comes the Dream (ML 2-1)

C's

# 2 Monsajem Pervade (ML 10-1)
# 3 Royal Opera House (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 4 Perfect Come Back (ML 8-1)

# 5 Going for the Win (ML 20-1)
# 6 Monsajem Accrete (ML 10-1)
# 8 Son of the South (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 Taima the Hawk (ML 3-1)

On the Key is undefeated since rejoining the barn of Trainer Manny Badilla.  Zip the Monkey is probably best here as far as talent goes.  But Zip the Monkey has been away from competition for over two years, and is running for the first time ever with a price tag on his head.  If Zip the Monkey can run at the level that he did previously then he wins easy; but if his connections felt that Zip the Monkey could run at that level, then he wouldn't be entered here.

Comes the Dream ships in from downstate and could move up with the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - Md $12.5k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Empire Rocket (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Startender (ML 10-1)
# 3 Aidan's Harbor (ML 4-1)
# 7 Awesome Ain't Easy (ML 3-1)
# 10 Tiz Toussaud (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Sharp Pegasus (ML 30-1)
# 4 Abby's Attitude (ML 8-1)
# 5 Mr. Pappas (ML 8-1)
# 6 Mister G. Q. (ML 15-1)
# 9 Davey's Boy (ML 12-1)

Empire Rocket looks quickest here.  Startender is a first time starter in a field where the experienced runners haven't been all the impressive.  Aiden's Harbor lost his rider at the break last time out; I figure he deserves another try.

Awesome Ain't Easy and Tiz Toussaud are two that could move up with the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 10 with 7 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,6,7 with 4,5,6,10 with 7,9,10 with 2,3,7,8,10 $90.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,8 with 10 with 7 with 8 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,7,9,11 with 7 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 10 with 2,3,4,5,6,8 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 10 with 7 with 1,4,5,6,9 $2.50

Total: $102.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:28 EDT / 3:28 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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