Sunday, November 29, 2015

11/29/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

This is it, the final day of The Bing Crosby Meet at Del Mar.  That makes it a mandatory payout day, though there are no carryovers to speak of.  We've got a pair of Graded Stakes on the back end of the card; but the real focus will be on finding the right two year olds, as juveniles comprise three of the final four events.  So with all that let's get to it, as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 6 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 10 Dressed in Hermes (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 6 Ninety One Assault (ML 8-1)

C’s

# 3 Tusk (ML 6-1)
# 7 Hot Ore (ML 12-1)

# 13 Archaeo (No Line) is a program scratch.

This is the two year old male's counterpart to yesterday's Jimmy Durante Stakes.  Dressed in Hermes is the only stakes winner in the field; indeed, Dressed in Hermes is the only runner in this field with more than one victory.

Tusk and Ninety One Assault exit the same maiden contest where they both closed well  Even though Tusk won the photo, I think Ninety One Assault has the better upside.  Hot Ore didn't care much for the soft surface at Keeneland last time out, and should improve with the return to the firmer SoCal grass.

RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Triple Clown (ML 5-1)
# 5 Hoffenheim (ML 5-2)

B's

# 4 Hard Gale (ML 3-1)
# 6 Film Juror (ML 20-1)
# 12 Eric the Trojan (ML 12-1)

C's

# 8 My Patate (ML 20-1)

# 3 Lord Walton (NL) is a program scratch.

This race and Race 9 share the same conditions.  First time starter Triple Clown, trained by Peter Miller, was sired by You Luckie Mann, who won as a two year old at first asking.  Hoffenheim, trained by Bob Baffert, ran well in his debut last time out once he figured out that there was a race going on and that he was a part of it.  

Film Juror, trained by Art Sherman, Hard Gale, trained by Phil D'Amato, and My Patate, trained by Victor Garcia, are all first time starters from sires whose progeny win more then their fair share of debuts; though My Patate's works seem somewhat less impressive than the others.  Eric the Trojan, trained by Peter Miller, showed some early quickness in his debut last time out before he ran out of gas.

RACE 8 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Stellar Path (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 9 Filimbi (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Hard Not to Like (ML 9-2)

C’s

# 3 Recepta (ML 8-1)

# 15 Alexis Tangier (15-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

Stella Path (Fr), trained by Chrstophe Clement, closed well while winning the Grade 3 Athenia last time out.  Filimbi, trained by Bill Mott, missed by just a half length of taking the Grade 1 Just a Game two starts back, and took the Place ahead of Hard Not to Like in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley in the start before that.

Hard Not to Like, trained by Christophe Clement, is the top career earner in this field; but I suspect that she needs more than eight furlongs to show her best.  Recepta, trained by Jimmy Toner, won the Grade 3 Noble Damsel two starts back, defeating (among others) # 6 Crowley's Law (GB) (ML 6-1).  Recepta should appreciate a return to a firm turf surface.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Mighty Moses (ML 9-2)

B's

# 2 Uncle Lino (ML 12-1)
# 11 Miner's Light (ML 7-2)

C's

# 4 Wild About Deb (ML 12-1)

This race and Race 7 share the same conditions.  Mighty Moses, trained by Bob Baffert, has taken the Place at this class level in each of his two career starts on dirt.  Miner's Light, trained by Carla Gaines, just missed graduating in his debut last time out when he lost the photo to Exaggerator, winner of last week's Delta Downs Jackpot.  The concern with Miner's Light is that he hasn't raced since that July contest.

Uncle Lino missed by a neck of graduating in his debut last time out.  But that contest was back in July, and, like Miner's Light, Uncle Lino has not competed since.  Wild About Deb is a first time starter trained by Phil D'Amato and sired by Eskendereya.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 8,9 with 3 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6,10 with 1,4,5,6,12 with 1,8,9 with 2,3,11 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 1,5 with 8,9 with 3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 8 with 8,9 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 3 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 8,9 with 4 $2.00

Total: $57.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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