11/26/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

"We are profoundly grateful for the blessings bestowed upon us: the preservation of our freedom, so dearly bought and so highly prized; our opportunities for human welfare and happiness, so limitless in their scope; our material prosperity, so far surpassing that of earlier years; and our private spiritual blessings, so deeply cherished by all. For these we offer fervent thanks to God." - Harry S. Truman

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  Hope you all have a wonderful and blessed time, enjoying today in the manner in which you most prefer.  As for me, that manner is sorting through the final four races on the Del Mar card; which today is comprised of three events limited to California bred runners surrounding the featured race, the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup.  The contests start early today, so let's get to it as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 5 - [S] (F) OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Tiz a Classy Lass (Morning Line 3-1)

B’s

# 6 Diamond Cut (ML 6-1)
# 7 Jade With Envy (ML 7-2)
# 9 Awesome Luck (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Stole a Kiss (ML 6-1)
# 4 Peggy Sue's Loose (ML 4-1)
# 8 Rock N Bunny (ML 20-1)

Toss that "effort" by Tiz a Classy Lass two starts back, as it was 1) on dirt; and 2) the only race of her career where she competed wearing front leg wraps.  Once you draw a line through that race you see a steadily improving form, culminating in a Starter Allowance N2L win last time out by over four lengths.  If she continues to improve, or simply holds form, Tiz a Class Lass stands a good chance of getting her picture taken today.

Diamond Cut ran well this past Spring before going on the shelf.  Diamond Cut's works leading into this has been steady, and if she experiences the natural maturation that you would expect from a three year old, then she should be right in the mix today.

Awesome Luck and Jade With Envy took the Place and Show, respectively, in the same contest at this class level last time out for each.  Stole a Kiss has been showing steady improvement over her last several races.  Rock N Bunny took the Place charging down the hill at Santa Anita last month against open claimers; perhaps she'll improve off that effort with the stretch out today.

Peggy Sue's Loose was a clear winner last time out at this class level despite the rider losing the whip; Peggy Sue's Loose also shows a pattern of steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures over her last few races.  So why is Peggy Sue's Loose a "C" Selection rather than an "A"?  Because since winning her most recent race on October 8, Peggy Sue's Loose has had just one public workout; and that was on October 28.  So unless the clockers missed her on the track one morning, it's fair to conclude that Peggy Sue's Loose is not in the best shape of her life.  Add to that the fact that her connections are willing to run her for a tag for the first time in her career right after she has achieved the first two Wins of her career.  I didn't leave Peggy Sue's Loose completely off our tickets because that talent to win at this level is there; but there are enough red flags here to warrant extreme caution.

RACE 6 - [S] (F) OC 80k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Sambamzajammin (ML 4-1)
# 9 Patriotic Diamond (ML 7-5)

B’s

None

C's

# 4 Star of Munster (ML 6-1)

# 8 Forthenineteen (ML 15-1) has been scratched.

Sambamzajammin and Patriotic Diamond took the Place and Show, respectively, in The Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes last time out for each.  Star of Munster is a lifetime two-for-two when not competing in open stakes.

RACE 7 - The Hollywood Turf Cup (Grade 2) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 The Pizza Man (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Up With the Birds (ML 4-1)
# 14 Big John B (ML 3-1)

C’s

# 3 Danas Best (Aus) (ML 20-1)
# 7 Ganesh (Brz) (ML 8-1)

# 15 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 20-1) and # 16 Bird E House (ML 30-1) do not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

The Pizza Man took the Show in last year's running of this event, and he should appreciate the class relief off his more recent efforts.  Up With the Birds, trained by Graham Motion, hasn't made it to the Winner's Circle since July of 2014, and has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite three times since that victory.  But Up With the Birds certainly has the talent to win against today's competition, and shouldn't be underestimated.

Big John B is the horse for the course in this contest, with a lifetime three-for-three record on this turf course, all in Graded Stakes contests.  Dana's Best (Aus), like Big John B, is trained by Phil D'Amato.  Dana's Best should appreciate the added distance.  Ganesh (Brz) took the Place in the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham back in May, the last time that he competed at today's distance.

RACE 8 - [S] Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 And Then Some (ML 7-2)
# 8 H R Express (ML 9-2)
# 13 Redneck Crazy (ML 5-1)

B's

# 11 Nusret (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Little Mustard (ML 5-1)

# 4 Dixie Caravan (No Line) and # 14 Zorro's Storm (NL) are program scratches.  # 9 Ski Utah (ML 20-1) has also been scratched.

And Then Some drops in for a tag for the first time in his career, two starts after earning this field's best career Beyer Speed Figure.  H R Express took the Show in his debut at this class level last time out.  Redneck Crazy took the Place at this class level as the Post Time Favorite last time out.  

Nusret has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two races, both at this class level.  Little Mustard took the Show at this class level last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 1,9 with 6 with 5,8,13 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6,7,9 with 1,9 with 2,6,14 with 5,8,11,13 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4,8 with 1,9 with 6 with 5,8,13 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 6 with 5,8,13 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,9 with 3,7 with 5,8,13 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,9 with 6 with 3 $1.00

Total: $71.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 4:00 EST / 1:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo