Saturday, November 7, 2015

11/7/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

First things first: as we return from Breeders' Cup weekend, we would be remiss if we didn't take a moment to express our gratitude to the good people at Green Valley Ranch in Henderson, NV for the wonderful job they did during our stay last week.  Needless to say, it was an absolute joy to get together with the rest of the crew; and one of the main reasons why it was yet another joyful occasion was due to the Grade A job performed by the staff of the Green Valley Ranch hotel and casino in general, and the Race and Sports Book in particular.  So a huge "Thank You" to Bert Cirincione, Celena Sams, Sharon our cocktail waitress, and all the employees at Green Valley Ranch for a job very well done!

Turning back to today, we're in the midst of the Bing Crosby Meet at Del Mar, with fillies and mares on the grass accounting for half of the card's bottom, including the featured eighth race, The Kathryn Crosby.  So let's get to it, as we take a run at the Pick Four where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Havanna Belle (Ire) (Morning Line 9-2)
# 7 Spirit of Ten (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Causeway Carolyn (ML 5-1)
# 5 Glory (ML 5-2)
# 8 Last Kiss (Brz) (ML 6-1)

C's

None

# 3 Intoxicating Move (ML 8-1) and # 4 Shysheisnot (ML 20-1) have been scratched.

Havanna Belle (Ire) gets some class relief after taking the Show behind Curlin's Fox last time out in the Sandy Blue Handicap.  Spirit of Ten comes into this contest with a three race winning streak, all earned on some California grass.  Spirit of Ten is two-for-two lifetime on the Del Mar turf, and shows a steady workout pattern since her last race on September 5.

Causeway Carolyn took the Show at this class level last time out.  Glory steps up in class while going long for the first time in her career; not a combination on which you want to accept short odds.  But the tandem of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer with Jockey Mike Smith deserves to be respected in this spot.

Last Kiss (Brz) took the Place at this class level last time out; but the concern is that runners for Trainer Neil Drysdale tend not to move forward in their second start off an extended layoff.

RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 All Run (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 6 Kafister (ML 4-1)

C's

None

# 1 Papa Turf (ML 8-1) and # 4 Cautious Giant (ML 4-1) have been scratched.

All Run takes a step up the class ladder after winning by as many as he wanted last time out.  Kafister found seven furlongs to be a bridge too far last time out while taking the Show at this class level, and should appreciate the turn back in distance.

RACE 8 - [R] (F) The Kathryn Crosby $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Nashoba's Gold (ML 5-1)
# 5 Beat of The Drum (Ire) (ML 4-1)

B's

# 2 Three Hearts (ML 7-2)
# 7 Chaulk O Lattey (ML 3-1)

C's

None

# 4 Cast in Silver (ML 6-1) has been scratched.

The restriction given in the conditions is that this contest is open only to those horses that have not won a stakes of $50k or more at a mile or over since April 1, 2015.  The $50k refers to the winner's share of the stakes, not to the entire purse, while state restricted races don't count, so horses could have won as many of those as they wanted and still been eligible.

Nashoba's Gold won a pair of Graded Stakes on the turf in 2014 as a three year old, but had to go on the shelf after losing by over four lengths in the Grade 2 Buena Vista back in February.  Nashoba's Gold shows a steady workout pattern over the past month, and gains the services of Jockey Mike Smith for the first time in her career.  If she's ready to run, and it looks like she is, Nashoba's Gold should be the one to beat here.

Beat of The Drum (Ire) beat OC 62k/N2X company on the grass last time out by wiring the field, but her form shows a stakes win overseas that was earned by coming off the pace; so she doesn't need the lead to win.  Three Hearts gets some class relief after competing against nothing but Graded Stakes company over the past twelve months.  Chaulk O Lattey has finished in the Exacta in both of her two career starts on this turf course.

RACE 9 - Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Small Town Shuffle (ML 8-1)

B's

# 1 Superside (ML 10-1)
# 8 Twisted Earl (6-1)

C's

# 9 Blue Copper (ML 9-2)
# 10 Purrin' Proud (ML 6-1)

# 12 Unbridled Rocket (ML 7-2) has been scracthed; but # 13 Gone With It (ML 6-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

Small Town Shuffle took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Superside showed good early speed in his debut last time out.  Twisted Earl took the Show against non-claiming maidens last time out, albeit on the turf upstate.

Blue Copper is a first time starter for Trainer Bob Hess, Jr, who tends to do well with runners debuting with a price tag on their head.  Purrin' Proud took the Place at this class level last time out, and should be forwardly placed.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,7 with 5 with 1,5 with 2 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,7,8 with 5,6 with 1,2,5,7 with 1,2,8 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 5 with 1,5 with 9,10 $4.00

Total: $68.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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