12/15/18 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Preview

So Golden Gate is done until Boxing Day, and I'm still priced out of Los Alamitos.  So what to do?  Well, a nice rest is certainly a very tempting possibility; and I may choose to explore that option next weekend.  But for the next two days I decided to shift my action one time zone to the east.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Turf Paradise.

RACE 5 - OC 16k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Levitation (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 7 Satellite Storm (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Fire the Trainer (ML 5-1)
# 3 La Waun (ML 7-2)
# 4 London Legacy (ML 5-2)
# 5 Blow My Mind (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sure Sweet (ML 12-1)

Levitation could improve with the return to the main track, and there should be enough pace here for Levitation to chase.  Satellite Storm ran quite well in his contest over this main track last time out, and Satellite Storm projects to be forwardly placed.

London Legacy certainly deserves consideration here; but ultimately I decided that his effort last time out combined with his most recent works suggest that London Legacy may not be in top form, and perhaps could use a bit of a freshening.  Sure Sweet is another that I gave some thought to including on the big ticket; but I didn't like Sure Sweet's most recent efforts when going beyond five and a half furlongs.  So if you've got the budget, you might want to give either or both of those runners more prominence in your play; but for me, I'll be using them along with the rest of this field as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 6 - Clm $3k N2Y - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Bold Charmat (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 8 The Natural (ML 3-1)
# 10 Batti Man (Arg) (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 McCallum (ML 5-1)
# 2 He's Very Rare (ML 9-2)
# 3 Senor Grits (ML 15-1)
# 4 Stax on Stacks (ML 20-1)
# 5 Ton Eighty (ML 10-1)
# 6 My Majesty (ML 15-1)
# 7 Karaoke Cat (ML 20-1)

The cutoff date to qualify for this contest is July 15, 2018.  So as long as your runner hasn't won two races since July 15, 2018 (excepting claiming races for $2.5k or less; they don't count, so you could've won as many of those as you wanted) you're good to go.

Bold Charmat enters this contest having won three of his last four races, albeit against lesser competition.  The Natural disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, and could benefit from the class relief.  Batti Man (Arg) ran well in his return last time out, and Batti Man's work on 12/4 suggests that he's ready to do it again.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - OC 10k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Bourque (ML 9-2)

B’s

# 6 Wise Curlin (ML 7-2)

# 8 Hot Bobby (ML 3-1)

# 9 Union Riches (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Pulpits Power (ML 15-1)

# 4 Cross Creek (ML 10-1)
# 5 One Stop Shop (ML 6-1)

# 7 Cleanup Hitter (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 3 Gato Guapo (ML 6-1); but don't bring in # 10 Fritz Johansen (ML 5-2) off the Also Eligible List, because he's scratched too.

Bourque has run well in each of his last three turf routes, and Bourque was within a length of the winner at the wire at this class level last time out.  Wise Curlin was victorious in his first try over this turf course last time out, and Wise Curlin could improve on that effort with the added distance.

Hot Bobby took the Show at this class level last time out.  Union Riches could improve going third off the freshening; though it would be understandable if you chose to drop Union Riches from your main ticket, as it seems that Hot Bobby has Union Riches' number.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - Clm $4k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Oil (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 4 Put Your Pants On (ML 7-2)

# 6 Brave Action (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Runn'n Rebel (ML 12-1)
# 2 Awesome E K (ML 5-1)
# 3 Last One Standing (ML 6-1)

# 5 Oopper Wallah (ML 10-1)

# 7 Natural Marina (ML 15-1)

# 9 No EZ Money (ML 20-1)

# 10 Unleash the Beast (ML 20-1)
# 11 Mark Ye Well (ML 9-2)

Oil is getting some significant class relief here, and Oil could prove to be the speed of the speed in this field.  Put Your Pants On and Brave Action filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this approximate class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 9 with 1 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 8,9,10 with 1,6,8,9 with 4,6,8 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6 with 9 with 1 with 8 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 with 8 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 9 with 2,4,5,7 with 8 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 9 with 1 with 1,2,3,5,7,9,10,11 $4.00

Total: $49.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 4:40 EST / 1:40 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo