It's Sunday, and unlike yesterday a distaff contest has made its way into the final four races in Arizona. And that's all I have by way of introduction. So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turf Paradise.
RACE 5 - Clm $8.5k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Gee for Three (Morning Line 9-2)
B’s
# 1 All Trumped Up (ML 8-5)
# 7 Thorny Issue (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Sneaky Meek (ML 10-1)
# 5 A. F. Indy (ML 6-1)
# 6 His Way (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Giro Candito (ML 5-1)
An interesting note is that it costs an extra fifteen hundred dollars to claim All Trumped Up in this contest, because he's an Arizona bred. Gee for Three and the aforementioned All Trumped Up filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Thorny Issue missed the winner's circle by a neck at this class level last time out, albeit on the grass. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $4k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Play Nice (ML 6-5)
B's
# 5 Heartwrecker (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Right to the Point (ML 10-1)
# 2 Tinderette (ML 6-1)
# 3 Aikaman's Girl (ML 12-1)
# 4 Maddymax (ML 4-1)
# 6 Coastal Curves (ML 15-1)
# 8 Red Storm Rising (ML 30-1)
This contest is restricted to fillies or mares which have either:
1) Not won a race since September 16, 2018; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
Excepting claiming races for $3k or less; they don't count.
So as long as a filly or mare has fewer than four career Wins, she's eligible to run in this race. If a filly or mare has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have been since 9/16/2018 in order for her to be entered here. For the record, Red Storm Rising is the only entrant here that has visited the winner's circle fewer than four times. Oh, and the claiming price for Arizona breds in this contest is five grand rather than four; but since there are no Arizona breds running in this race, that really doesn't matter.
Play Nice should probably be a big ticket single here; but I tend to be cautious when a runner is switching barns to a trainer with a lower winning percentage. So I'm doubling the cost of my big ticket by including Heartwrecker, who took the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - Clm $15k N3L - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Kona Dreams (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 6 Appellant (ML 4-1)
# 7 So Be It (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Peacock Cowboy (ML 5-1)
# 3 First to the Wire (ML 15-1)
# 4 C C Express (ML 6-1)
# 5 Hustle and Bustle (ML 8-1)
The conditions allow that you can trade claiming price for weight; every two pounds shed will lower the price tag on your runner by twenty-five hundred; but you can't go lower than a claiming price of ten grand. First to the Wire is the only entrant here to take that option; so First to the Wire will carry 118 pounds in exchange for being on the market for $10k. Oh, and the claiming price for Arizona breds is $20k here; but there are no Arizona breds here.
Kona Dreams ships in from California and should appreciate the class relief. Jockeys Scott Stevens and Francisco Arrieta look to be the most successful turf riders on this circuit; so their runners (Appellant and So Be It, respectively) go on the big ticket as well. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $3k B - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Pete's Slew (ML 3-1)
B's
# 7 Unbridled Venture (ML 4-1)
# 9 Hidden Gun (ML 6-1)
# 10 Rosat (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 K L S Forty Three (ML 8-1)
# 3 Nicolas Cajun (ML 20-1)
# 6 Valentine Party (ML 15-1)
# 8 Bases Loaded (ML 10-1)
# 11 Mo Rock (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 4 Tale of Beaucette (ML 7-2); # 5 Duplicate Copy (ML 20-1); and # 12 Triunfo (ML 20-1). Bring in Mo Rock off the Also Eligible List.
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since June 16, 2018; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
Excepting claiming races for $2.5k or less; they don't count.
So as long as a horse has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have been since 6/16/2018 in order for him to be entered here. For the record, Nicolas Cajun and Rosat are the only entrants here that have visited the winner's circle fewer than four times. Oh, and the claiming price for Arizona breds in this contest is the same as it is for everyone else; so if you want to buy Arizona breds Hidden Gun or Mo Rock, it will cost you the same three grand that all the other entrants cost.
Pete's Slew could move up with the class drop. Unbridled Venture fits well here on class, though Unbridled Venture may need a race off the layoff. Conversely, Hidden Gun could be ready to roll off the extended vacation, as Trainer Edward Kereluk tends to do well with such.
Rosat is trying to make it two in a row while moving up in class; Trainer Eliazar Salas is often successful when placing his last out winners. All other entrants are being used as backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 7 with 2 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 5,7 with 2,6,7 with 1,7,9,10 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6 with 7 with 2 with 1 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,4,6,8 with 2 with 1 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 7 with 1,3,4,5 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 7 with 2 with 2,3,6,8,11 $2.50
Total: $46.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:40 EST / 1:40 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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