12/23/18 Turf Paradise Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Sunday; it's Christmas Eve Eve; and that's all I've got by way of introduction.  So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turf Paradise.

RACE 5 - (F) Clm $15k N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Stella Malone (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 3 Dawn Traveler (Ire) (ML 5-2)
# 7 Dianka (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Shy (ML 8-1)
# 2 Put It On Ice (ML 15-1)
# 4 Cherokee Louise (ML 10-1)
# 5 Miss Shirley C (ML 3-1)

There are no Arizona breds in this contest; but if there were, you would have to pay and extra five grand to claim them.

This one looks like Stella Malone early and either Dawn Traveler (Ire) or Dianka late.  Stella Malone is quick enough where it's certainly tempting to just make her a big ticket single and hope that she doesn't get caught.  But Miss Shirley C looks like she could hang with Stella Malone early and soften her up for the late comers.  So I'm going three deep on the big ticket here, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 6 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Parking Permit (ML 1-1)

B's

# 7 Arizona Ry (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Havasu Caution (ML 20-1)
# 2 Dimera (ML 12-1)
# 3 Zambora (ML 9-5)
# 4 Mr Dejavu (ML 20-1)
# 5 Rogelio (ML 10-1)
# 6 Gypsy's Goal (ML 12-1)

Arizona breds cost more in this contest; so if you want to claim Dimera, Mr Dejavu, or Arizona Ry, you'll have to pay $10k instead of the $8k that the others are in for.

Zambora ships into Arizona after making his debut last time out at Golden Gate; and if it wouldn't blow up the budget, I'd probably would put Zambora on the big ticket because of the class drop.  On the other hand, if I wanted to save even more money, I could just make Parking Permit a big ticket single.  But Arizona Ry has shown some good early speed against classier competition; so onto the big ticket Arizona Ry goes.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $3.5k N2L - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Meet'n On High (ML 6-5)

B’s

# 7 No One Told Me (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 P. Sue (ML 20-1)
# 2 S S Taylor (ML 8-1)

# 3 Blazin On By (ML 5-2)
# 4 Hit'n Time (ML 12-1)
# 5 End Zone Embrace (ML 20-1)
# 8 My Last Penny (ML 30-1)

No extra money needed to claim an Arizona bred in this contest; so if you're looking to purchase Hit'n Time, it'll cost you the same $3.5k that all the other entrants cost.

Meet'n On High won by daylight last time out in her first start outside California.  No One Told Me won by the length of the stretch in her debut two starts back, and seems to have been working well for her return to competition.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - Clm $8.5k N2Y - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5  Chaska (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Most Determined (ML 15-1)

# 2 Seeking Bea (ML 20-1)

# 3 Oldtimers Vision (ML 10-1)
# 4 Ride Hard Kowboy (ML 9-5)

# 6 Dreamcatcher (ML 10-1)
# 7 Oh Newman (ML 6-1)
# 8 Dare to Enter (ML 4-1)

C's

None

This contest is restricted to horses that have either not won two races since June 23, 2018 or which have never won four races in their career. Note that races where the claiming price was $2.5k or less don't count towards either total.  For the record, Most Determined, Seeking Bea, and Dare to Enter are the three runners in this field with fewer than four victories.  Also note that Arizona breds would cost an extra $1.5k to claim if there were any in the field; but there aren't.

Chaska won at this level last time out, and it would be quite understandable if one was to make Chaska a big ticket single here.  However, I decided to go in the opposite direction.  I think that Chaska is going to face a lot more early pressure today than he did last time out; and while he might still win, I think that the probability of an early pace meltdown is high enough to go with the possibility that this could turn into a chaos race.  So everyone into the pool!

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 8 with 6 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,6,7 with 7,8 with 6,7 with ALL $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5 with 8 with 6 with 5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6 with 6 with 5 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,5,8 with 5 $3.00

Total: $57.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 4:44 EST / 1:44 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo