Road to the Kentucky Derby - Update

Here's something to consider as you pore over your Kentucky Derby Past Performances: how long did it typically take for prior winners of the Derby to break their maidens?  

The chart below is pretty basic: Year / Kentucky Derby Winner / Number of tries needed to obtain their first career victory.  A "1" means that they broke their maiden in their debut; a "2" means that they got their first career win in their second career race; and so on.

2012 - I'll Have Another - 1
2011 - Animal Kingdom - 2
2010 - Super Saver - 2
2009 - Mine That Bird - 2
2008 - Big Brown - 1
2007 - Street Sense - 2
2006 - Barbaro - 1
2005 - Giacomo - 2
2004 - Smarty Jones - 1
2003 - Funny Cide - 1
2002 - War Emblem - 1
2001 - Monarchos - 3
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - 2
1999 - Charismatic - 6
1998 - Real Quiet - 7
1997 - Silver Charm - 2
1996 - Grindstone - 1
1995 - Thunder Gulch - 2
1994 - Go For Gin - 3
1993 - Sea Hero - 4
1992 - Lil E. Tee - 2
1991 - Strike the Gold - 3
1990 - Unbridled - 1
1989 - Sunday Silence - 2
1988 - Winning Colors - 1
1987 - Alysheba - 3
1986 - Ferdinand - 4
1985 - Spend a Buck - 1
1984 - Swale - 2
1983 - Sunny's Halo - 1

Debut Winners - 11
Second Attempt - 11
Third Try - 4
Fourth Attempt - 2
Sixth Attempt - 1
Seventh Attempt - 1

Twenty-two of the last thirty Kentucky Derby winners broke their maiden in either their debut or their second career race, with an even split of eleven horses falling into each category.  Four others needed three tries to garner their first victory, and another pair needed four attempts to get off the schneid.  Charismatic made five fruitless attempts at winning before taking the big drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks in his sixth career start in order to get his first victory; while Real Quiet didn't make it to the Winner's Circle until his seventh career race (though two of those seven races were competitions against winners, rather than fellow maidens).

So while not a hard and fast rule, it seems clear that the Run for the Roses is usually won by a horse that figures out early that the goal is to finish ahead of the pack; not with the pack.  On the other hand, the two horses in the above list who took the longest to break their maidens are also two that would go on to win the Preakness and come tantalizingly close to being Triple Crown winners.

So make of the above what you will; and, as always, if you think you see an error in my work, please let me know.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo