Saturday is Blue Grass Day at Keeneland Park, which is using that Kentucky Derby prep race at the centerpiece of a card chock full of competitive stakes, along with a wide array of multi-race wagers, including two fifty cent Pick Fives and three fifty cent Pick Fours. Below I'll give some brief thoughts on the latter half of the card, beginning with Race 7, the Grade 3 Shakertown, which kicks off an all Graded Stakes Pick Four.
RACE 7 - The Shakertown
# 1 Something Extra (Morning Line 9-2) posted a 101 Beyer Speed Figure his last time out, taking the Place in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint, which was run at a distance of five furlongs. Prior to that race, the last time Something Extra ran in a turf sprint he posted a 102 Beyer while winning the Grade 2 Connaught Cup Stakes at Woodbine. If Something Extra repeats either of those performances today, he should find himself getting his picture taken after the race.
# 8 Perfect Officer (ML 3-1) will be making his first start of 2013 in this race; but note that was also the case when he won last year's running of this event Also note that his trainer, Tony Dutrow, shows a .27 Winning Percentage with horses returning to the track after a layoff of over 180 days.
# 2 Hogy (ML 8-1) was showing a pattern of steadily increasing Beyers (89, 92, 94) in turf sprints beginning in Summer 2012, when his connections decided to move him onto the main dirt track at Hawthorne. Hogy held his form well in those two races; if he can continue to improve on his prior turf efforts he will be competitive in this one, despite the jump in class.
# 5 Havelock (ML 4-1) has a good deal of back-class, and is two-for-three on the Keeneland grass; add in the presence of Garrett Gomez in the saddle, and there's a lot to like here. But I'll be taking a stand against Havelock today, as I'm not impressed with his performances in 2012 when returning from vacation, nor am I enamoured with conditioner Darrin Miller's .08 Winning Percentage when bringing a horse back from a two-to-six month layoff. It's also worth mentioning that Havelock hasn't won a turf sprint since October, 2011.
# 7 Regally Ready (ML 4-1) is another horse that I'll be playing against today. While there's no complaints with trainer Steve Asmussen's .23 Winning Percentage when running a entrant off a greater than six month absence, Regally Ready just hasn't been the same horse since taking the show in the 2012 Daytona Stakes at Santa Anita, failing to finish in the money in any of his turf sprints since that event.
RACE 8 - The Madison
In addition to being the second leg of the all-stakes Pick Four, Race 8 also kicks off the late $0.50 Pick Five. Race 8 is also the reason why I do not expect to be making a serious wager in either of those bets.
Race 8 is The Madison, a Grade 1 Stakes, but Grade 1 in name only. Not only do none of the entrants show a Grade 1 victory in their Past Performances (ten races back) only one of the contestants, # 10 Fantasy of Flight (ML 7-2) shows even an entry into a Grade 1 event (The Humana Distaff Stakes, a race in which Fantasy of Flight ran 9th, beaten by over twenty-three lengths). Only one entrant in today's contest shows a victory in a Grade 2 Stakes, Holiday for Kitten (ML 9-2), who won the Turf Amazon Handicap over this track back in October of 2011. In my humble opinion this race is the very definition of a chaos race, and I can't see including this contest in a serious multi-race wager without hitting the "All" button.
If you're just looking for an action play here, I could recommend # 6 Jamaican Smoke (ML 5-1) who was victorious his only time competing on this surface, and projects to be the speed of the speed.
RACE 9 - The Jenny Wiley
Race 9 begins the final Pick Four on Saturday's card.
# 1 Centre Court (ML 5-2) has finished in the Exacta in every race of her career, excepting her debut (which, not so coincidentally, was also her only race not on the grass). She appears to be a standout in this one, with the only blemish being the fact that she has yet to win at this track, taking the Place both times that she's competed on the Keeneland turf.
# 3 Better Lucky (ML 5-1) comes off her stunning upset in the Grade 1 Matriarch Stakes at Hollywood Park last November in which she paid $72.20 to Win while topping a Trifecta that paid over three thousand dollars for a buck. Better Lucky finished behind Centre Court in her three races prior to The Matriarch; and while there's the possibility Better Lucky may upset today, you can be sure she won't be going to Post at 30-1.
# 8 Daisy Devine (ML 4-1) won this event last year by wiring the field, and projects again to be the one in front for at least most of the early going. Combine that with her perfect five-for-five record in turf contests at this distance, along with being two-for-three (with one second) when competing on the Keeneland grass, and you must count her among the contenders. The Trainer Stats for her conditioner, Andrew McKeever (.29 Winning Percentage in Graded Stakes; .28 WP in Routes; .29 WP with horses returning between 31-60 days) just add to the appeal. However, Jockey James Graham has been having great difficulty finding the Winner's Circle so far this meet; which, if not a red flag, certainly suggests caution.
RACE 10 - The Blue Grass
# 4 Java's War (ML 4-1) has the best last time out Beyer Speed Figure in this field (96, which also ties for the best career Beyer among this bunch), earned while taking the Place behind Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby. Java's War was sired by War Pass, who had a brilliant though brief career, and then died so tragically young.
# 7 Uncaptured (ML 7-2) is the other possessor of the best career Beyer in this field; and, unlike Java's War, earned that number while running over a synthetic surface. Uncaptured is four-for-six lifetime on the plastic, and showed a lot of heart while winning his stretch duel against Frac Daddy in last year's Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Worth remembering if Uncaptured wins today and finds himself running for the roses on May 4 is that he is two-for-two lifetime on the Churchill Downs main track, and is sired by Lion Heart, the horse who took the Place behind Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
# 10 Footbridge (ML 20-1) broke his maiden his last time out, after having finished a neck behind Govenor Charlie (winner of the Sunland Derby) in his prior attempt. Footbridge owns the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance (397) in this field, and is sired by Street Cry (Ire), which suggests that Footbridge should handle the make-believe dirt quite nicely.
# 13 Rydilluc (ML 4-1) is undefeated in his last three races, and his Beyers have shown steady improvement. But all those races have been on grass; this will be his first try on the synthetics, and there's no guarantee that he'll keep his form with the change in surface. Also note that Trainer Gary Contessa is winless when running horses on the plastic the last couple of years, albeit in a very small sample size.
# 8 Charming Kitten (ML 10-1) is one of two Todd Pletcher trained entrants in this event, and for that reason alone will garner a good deal of attention. But the Kitten's Joy child I'll be watching is # 14 Fear the Kitten (ML 30-1). Fear the Kitten already has a win over this track, and the presence of Dynaformer as Damsire suggests a natural inclination for this unnatural surface. Trainer Michael Maker wins about a quarter of the time he runs a horse on the synthetics, and also shows a positive ROI in his Graded Stakes attempts. If any horse in this field is going to blow up the tote board, my hunch is that this will be the one.
RACE 11
# 1 Dubious Miss (ML 5-2) gets some much needed class relief, having finished third against stakes company two back while taking the Place against N3X competition the race prior to that. Dubious Miss is three-for-four over the Keeneland main track, and four-for-eight (with two seconds) in her career on all synthetic surfaces.
# 7 Chalice (ML 5-1) took the Place his last time out against this level, finishing behind Whatthecatdrugin, who came back to win his next time out. Chalice's Beyers his last three times out, all on synthetic surfaces, show a slight steady increase (87, 88, 91) suggesting consistency. His conditioner, Kellyn Gorder, has impeccable stats in all the key angles (Synth: 22%, $2.03 ROI; 31-60 Days: 25%, $2.67 ROI; Routes: 27%, $1.99 ROI; Claim: 35%, $2.13 ROI; Allowance: 20%, $2.29 ROI).
# 2 Mezzano (ML 10-1) has taken the Place his last two times out at this level, just missing in a photo finish his last time out. This will be Mezzano's first time on the synthetic, and there's little in his pedigree, or in Trainer Alan Goldberg's recent record, to suggest that he'll take to the surface.
# 9 Working for Hops (ML 4-1) shares with Chalice the honor of having the best last out Beyer. But while Chalice earned his figure on a synthetic main track, Working for Hops ran his race on the turf; the surface to which Working for Hops seems much better suited. Note that the last two times Working for Hops raced on the plastic he posted Beyers of 79 and 82; figures which will not get him in the money against this field today.
RACE 12
# 1 Rafaelini (ML 5-1) # 5 Liz Pendens (ML 4-1) and # 8 Taylor Street (ML 10-1) have all posted Beyer Speed Figures of 70 or better in races run over a firm turf course at a distance of at least eight furlongs. # 6 Abbey Street (ML 9-2), after failing four times in turf sprints, makes her first start at a distance greater than a mile; her breeding suggests that she's better suited to turf routes rather than sprints. # 10 English Holiday (ML 15-1) is the most intriguing entrant in the field, having debuted against stakes company back in September, and not competing since.
I haven't yet decided how I'll play this lot, other than choosing to lay off the Pick Five and the all-stakes Pick 4. I may do something with that final Pick 4; though I may just focus on the Pick 3 with Races 9 - 11. Once I do make my play, I'll be sure to post it here. Until then, hopefully you'll find something in the above that will help you make your selections.
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:05 EDT / 1:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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