Friday, April 5, 2013

4/5/13 GP Rainbow Six - Preview

So this is it; the final day of the Gulfstream Park meet.  Everything in the Rainbow Six pool must be paid out today.  While the temptation to shovel all I can get my hands on through the windows to cover every possible combination is tempting, I'll play it light (well, relatively light) and see what happens.

RACE 8

# 10 Sweet N Discreet (Morning Line 7-2) makes her second career start for the Todd Pletcher barn, having failed as the Post Time favorite back in July at Belmont Park.  She possesses Tomlinson Ratings above 400 for both Wet tracks and today's distance, and will have Castellano on board for the ride.

RACE 9

# 3 Indygo Prince (ML 6-1) missed at this level by less than two lengths his last time out.  The bullet work on March 29 shows that he can run on dirt, and the Wet Tomlinson of 390 is an indicator that the slop won't slow him down.  # 4 King Khalifa (ML 6-1) has the best Wet Tomlinson in the field (407) and took the Show last time out against more expensive.  # 14 Wild Perfection (ML 8-1) took the Place two back against higher company, and runs for a barn that has a 18% Win Rate in Maiden Claimers.

RACE 10

# 4 Monroe Court (ML 6-1) won at this level last time out.  Monroe Court is two-for-four on the Gulfstream Park main track, and has been in the Exacta both times that he's competed at this distance.  # 5 Morality (ML 3-1) took the Show his last time out, which was against this class level.  His conditioner, Peter Walder, hits 27% of the time in Claiming events.  # 10 Jordan's Image (ML 4-1) won at this level two back and was claimed away from Trainer Angel Quiroz, who claimed Jordan's Image right back the next time he ran.  Jordan's Image is two-for-four lifetime on off tracks.

RACE 11

# 3 Silver Lining John (ML 4-1) goes first time from a sire whose offspring win their first time out 19% of the time, and for a trainer (Pletcher) who connects a third of the time one of his horses makes their debut.  Silver Lining John has a Wet Tomlinson of 393, so the slop should not be a problem.  Also worth noting is that the colt has not missed a weekly work since January.

RACE 12

# 1 Crafty Unicorn (ML 4-1) is the class of this field, being a stakes winner (in his debut, no less) and hitting the board three other times in stakes company.  The layoff is a concern, however, especially with the light worktab.  # 11 Charles in Charge (ML 12-1) has the best Wet Tomlinson in this bunch (419) and showed a lot of heart in each of his last two races.

RACE 13

# 1 Sweet Gator Girl (ML 6-1) just missed against more expensive on the dirt back in November.  Having Afleet Alex as her sire gives her a pedigree edge.  # 12 Sortaria (ML 12-1) took the show two back on a sloppy track against more expensive in a sprint; having Dixie Union as her Grandsire suggests she should do better around two turns.  # 14 My Pal Ariana (ML 3-1) missed by a neck at this level last out; time before that, she took the Show in this company.

The above is the A list.  Putting them together gives us a ticket of:

RACE 8: 10

RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14

RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10

RACE 11: 3

RACE 12: 1 / 11

RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14

Playing the above for thirty cents costs $16.20

If we scatter in a few C's, we can also play the following tickets:


RACE 8: 2 / 5

RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14

RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10

RACE 11: 3

RACE 12: 1 / 11

RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14

Cost: $10.80 


RACE 8: 10

RACE 9: 7

RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10

RACE 11: 3

RACE 12: 1 / 11

RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14

Cost: $1.80


RACE 8: 10

RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14

RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10

RACE 11: 6 / 8 / 12

RACE 12: 1 / 11

RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14

Cost: $16.20


RACE 8: 10

RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14

RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10

RACE 11: 3

RACE 12: 6 / 8

RACE 13: 1 / 12 / 14

Cost: $5.40


RACE 8: 10

RACE 9: 3 / 4 / 14

RACE 10: 4 / 5 / 10

RACE 11: 3

RACE 12: 1 / 11

RACE 13: 6 / 11

Cost: $3.60

Total Cost: $54.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 4:34 EDT / 1:34 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo


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