It's Belmont Stakes day in New York City; and while there will be no Triple Crown winner this year, it should still be an exciting event, with the Kentucky Derby Winner and the Preakness Stakes Winner squaring off as part of a field of fourteen. There's a full menu of wagering options being offered; I'll focus here on the middle Pick Four, comprised of all Graded Stakes. As time is short, I'll be brief.
RACE 8 - THE JUST A GAME
# 3 Centre Court (Morning Line 3-1) has been in the Exacta in each of her last ten starts; the last seven being Graded Stakes; the last three being victories.
# 6 Mizdirection (ML 7-2) has shown the ability in her career to win on the front end and to win by closing late. She'll be ridden today by Mike Smith; note that in her most recent ten races, her best Beyer Speed Figures are in the four races where Smith was on board.
# 1 Hungry Island (ML 4-1) has three career victories on the Belmont grass, and her Speed Figure pattern shows a nice, steady increase.
# 2 Stephanie's Kitten (ML 5-2) loses the services of Julien Leparoux (who rode her to victory in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile her last time out) to Centre Court, but gets in return John Velazquez, who was on her back for all her prior stakes wins.
# 7 Better Lucky (ML 12-1) is no stranger to cashing in at big prices, as only one of her career wins has come at Final Odds of less than 6-1. Joel Rosario will be on board for the first time; if he can get Better Lucky to run as she did in winning the Grade 1 Matriarch, she could light up the tote board.
RACE 9 - THE WOODY STEPHENS
# 1 Declan's Warrior (ML 8-1) is just a neck away from being a perfect five-for-five for his career. He has two wins over the Belmont main track, and his come from behind style could work well against this bunch.
# 6 Zee Bros (ML 4-1) is the Bob Baffert entry in this contest. In his four race career Zee Bros has twice shown the ability to post triple digit Beyers, and twice shown the ability to tire in the drive. Toss a coin as to which one it will be today.
# 7 Forty Tales (ML 5-1) closed fast to win the Grade 3 Derby Trial at Churchill Downs back in April. He's won at six furlongs and he's won at eight furlongs; but he's winless in two attempts at today's distance of seven furlongs. Still, his late running style makes him a contender in this field filled with early speed.
# 9 Clearly Now (ML 8-1) came from sixth place to win the Grade 3 Swale, and just missed beating Declan's Warrior to the wire in the Grade 3 Bay Shore.
# 11 Let Em Shine (ML 3-1) dominated his last time out over the artificial surface of Hollywood Park, posting a 109 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Even if you toss that race, the 98 Beyer Let Em Shine posted in winning an Optional Claimer in his race before that on the Santa Anita dirt makes him a contender in this field. Edwin Maldonado makes the trip in from the West Coast to ride Let Em Shine today (as I type this, Let Em Shine is Maldonado's only mount on the card).
RACE 10 - THE MANHATTAN HANDICAP
#10 Point of Entry (ML 3-5) is the clear standout in this field; even if you’re looking at Past Performances for the first time in your life you can figure that out. But will he run? Point of Entry was scratched out of the Turf Classic on Derby Day at Churchill at the last minute (after the Pick Four had begun) because of track conditions. Will his connections do that again today?
# 4 Optimizer (ML 6-1) was second to Wise Dan in the aforementioned Turf Classic, and was less than a length behind Skyring at the wire in the Grade 2 Dixie his last time out. Optimizer's Beyers have been consistent; a good sign that he's always going to fire.
# 8 Twilight Eclipse (ML 8-1) has a pair of Grade 2 victories in his last three races, making him the only horse in this field besides Point of Entry to have earned a Grade 2 win.
RACE 11 - THE BELMONT STAKES
Not much to say here. You have your Derby winner # 5 Orb (ML 3-1) along with your Preakness winner # 7 Oxbow (ML 5-1); both are well matched, though neither should be getting the dream trips that they received in each of their respective victories. # 14 Golden Soul (ML 10-1) and # 9 Revolutionary (ML 9-2) were Place and Show (respectively) in the Kentucky Derby; if I had to single in this race, it would probably be Revolutionary, as his Beyer pattern makes him the most likely entrant to take another step forward. The filly, # 13 Unlimited Budget (ML 8-1) is bigger than many of the boys in this field; if she can last, she can win. # 6 Incognito (ML 20-1) in my wild card pick; Incognito's pedigree for the distance makes him a roll of the dice worth taking.
Running out of time; here goes:
One Dollar Tickets:
RACE 8: 3
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 9
COST: $1.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $12.00
Fifty Cent Tickets:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 7
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $9.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 6, 7, 11
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $9.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 5, 7, 9
COST: $12.00
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 9
RACE 10: 1
RACE 11: 6, 13, 14
COST: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $49.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:58 EDT / 12:58 PDT.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2 comments:
It was a bad day - on to the next race....
Indeed; I'll give a full recap later tonight when I have more energy. But some days you're the windshield, and some days you're the bug; this was definitely our day to be the bug.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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