Well, they all figured; but there was no figuring them all together.
Saturday's Race 7 at Belmont Park saw our key horse and "A" contender # 6 Horatio (Final Odds 2.15*; note that the public agreed with our assessment that the Morning Line odds were way too generous) fight against the bit trying to get the early lead that he wanted and we were hoping for. But Jockey Junior Alvarado had other ideas and held him back, not letting him run until the drive; by which time it was too late, as Horatio had already used all his energy fighting his rider in the early going. Horatio would move up from fifth to take the Show, but the gain is an illusion, as Horatio actually lost ground on the leader during this part of the race.
The winner of Race 7 was # 4 Stone Rocks (25.25), a horse that I had considered using as a "C' contender. Stone Rocks has posted a 58 Beyer Speed Figure two back in April, and his regression his last time out could be blamed on the sloppy track he ran over that day. Stone Rocks had twice previously taken the Show against higher class competition, so his win here should not have been a complete shocker.
I ultimately decided against using Stone Rocks on my tickets due to his poor Tomlinson Rating for the distance (172) and the equally poor trainer stats his conditioner showed (oh-for-thirteen overall for 2013; one-for-his last forty-two in dirt races). For those reasons I decided to instead put # 10 Ed's Magic (8.70) in one of the "C" slots. My decision was based primarily on the probability that Ed's Magic would improve on the 55 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in his debut, as horses generally show marked improvement in their second outing compared to their first; especially when, like Ed's Magic today, they trade an apprentice jockey for one of the journeymen, and go from an off-track to a fast surface. The reasoning was sound, but the reality didn't play out that way, as Ed's Magic pressed the leader for a half before tiring and fading to a sixth place finish.
We had labeled # 12 Notacatbutallama (4.90) an overlay in Race 8 at his morning line odds of 6-1; and while he did come down a bit in price, Notacatbutallama still went to post at a very generous odds. Notacatbutallama fought gamely in the stretch to win by a neck, our only "A" contender to make his way into the Winner's Circle today.
Taking credit where we can, we can be justifiably proud of our analysis of Race 9 in which we stated that using # 1A Situational Ethics (2.35*) in the top spot of tickets was poor investment strategy (sound advice to which we, unfortunately, did not adhere; as we did use Situational Ethics as one of our "C" contenders). Situational Ethics did not win today; in fact, he did not finish in the money, crossing the wire fourth. The victor in this one was # 8 Money in Motion (4.60), one of our "C" contenders, who finished a head in front of one of our three "A" contenders, # 5 North Star Boy (IRE) (10.60).
Finally we come to finale, Race 10, which saw a horse which we discussed but did not play, # 5 Song of Aspen (11.60) rally from off the pace to give Junior Alvarado his only winner on the day, while headlining a Trifecta that paid $629.00 for a buck. While it would have been intellectually satisfying to have included Song of Aspen on our tickets, especially since we did discuss his winning chances, practically, had we used him it would have been as a "C" contender, which would have just made our losses that much more.
So, could we have had the winning ticket for this Pick Four sequence? Well, if we were better handicappers, perhaps. But based upon the handicapping skills that we currently possess, in order to have the above four winners on one ticket, we would have had to use all the contenders we liked, including the two that we ultimately did not use at all (Stone Rocks and Song of Aspen) as "A" contenders; that is, just play it caveman style. It would have given us the following fifty cent ticket:
RACE 7: 3, 4, 6, 8, 10
RACE 8: 2, 6, 7, 12
RACE 9: ALL (seven entries)
RACE 10: 4, 5, 8
TOTAL COST: $210
So it's theoretically possible that we could have had the winning sequence today; but practically speaking, we don't play two hundred dollar Pick Four tickets; primarily because we don't have the budget for it; but more importantly, because it doesn't strike us as a good long-term strategy to invest over $200 on a wager that typically pays less than that amount (provided, of course, that you actually have it; just because you play a large ticket does not guarantee that you will cash it at the end of the last race). So, for us, the goal is not to increase the budget with which we make these plays, but rather to fine tune our handicapping to the point that such sequences can be played while remaining within our budget.
Anyway, enough about us.
The Late Pick Four winning sequence was 4 / 12 / 8 / 5 ; not a single Post Time Favorite in the group. Those who were savvy enough to correctly play it for fifty cents were rewarded with a payout of $12,326.25. May God bless them as they spend it.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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