RACE 6 - Clm $40k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 4 Snowday (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Luckarack (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 3 No Jet Lag (ML 4-1)
# 10 Royal F J (ML 6-1)
# 11 Pepnic (ML 10-1)
This one looks like an after Christmas sale, as there are multiple class droppers going for the lowest price tags of their career.
Snowday goes first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins over a third of the time with such. Luckarack took the Place at this level two starts back; two starts before that, Luckarack won at this level. No Jet Lag drops in for a tag for the fist time in his career. No Jet Lag finished out of the money in each of his five races since winning the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile; still, the back class must be respected.
Royal F J has finished in the money six of the last eight times the he's raced down the hill, all at this class level or higher. Pepnic has proven himself to be competitive at this class level. In addition Pepnic, who is making his first charge down the hill, has shown good early speed in his turf routes.
RACE 7 - (F) The Kalookan Queen $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Awesome Baby (ML 9-5)
# 8 Tribal Gal (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Global Hottie (ML 3-1)
# 6 Lexington Pearl (ML 6-1)
Awesome Baby is a class standout here, as she enters this contest with a three race winning streak, two of the three coming against Graded Stakes company. Awesome Baby has not raced since March, but that's not really a concern, as Trainer Bob Baffert knows how to get his runners ready after an extended vacation. More of a concern is that the Beyer Speed Figures that Awesome Baby earned in those three victories hardly jump off the page. In addition, this will be the first time that Awesome Baby will be facing her elders. Awesome Baby certainly deserves to be the Favorite here; but I think it's also prudent, based on the above, to spread a little as well.
Tribal Gal took the Place in the Grade 3 LA Woman two starts back. In the start prior to that, Tribal Gal won The Orange County at Los Al. Global Hottie is the "other" Baffert here, making her first try against stakes competition.
Lexington Pearl didn't appreciate wearing blinkers last time out, and should improve with the ability to see everything going on. Lexington Pearl is also the most likely entrant to be running late, as this contest seems primed with early speed.
RACE 8 - The Daytona (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Sweet Swap (ML 5-2)
# 9 Bettys Bambino (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 11 Lil Bit O'Fun (ML 7-2)
Sweet Swap took the Grade 3 San Simeon three starts back; in the start before that, Sweet Swap won the Joe Hernandez. Both those races were over this downhill turf course. Bettys Bambino is three-for-four lifetime charging down the hill. Lil Bit O'Fun took the Show racing down the hill in the Grade 3 Eddie D two starts back.
RACE 9 - Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Whiskey Wild (ML 6-1)
# 5 Oh Newman (ML 7-2)
# 8 Congrats Seattle (ML 3-1)
C's
# 3 A Colt Following (ML 5-1)
Whiskey Wild drops in for a tag after debuting last time out against non-claiming maidens; Trainer Jeff Mullins wins approximately 27% of the time that he moves one of his chargers from MSW to Maiden Claiming. Oh Newman just missed by half a length of graduating at this class level last time out.
Congrats Seattle has been in for a tag only once before in his career; and in that race (against more expensive) he lost by just half a length. A Colt Following, trying two turns for the first time today, has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,6 with 2,8 with 1,9 with 4,5,8 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,10,11 with 2,8 with 1,9 with 4,5,8 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 1,6 with 1,9 with 4,5,8 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 2,8 with 11 with 4,5,8 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 2,8 with 1,9 with 3 $4.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:04 EDT / 3:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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