RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Roadbug (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 4 Sound City (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Be Nice (ML 20-1)
# 3 Tall and Sweet (ML 5-2)
# 7 Ebony Princess (ML 6-1)
Roadbug looks like a standout here; or, at least as much of a standout as an unraced juvenile filly can look. Roadbug is trained by Bob Baffert, who wins approximately 22% of the time with debut runners. In addition, progeny of Roadbug's sire, Quality Road, win approximately 18% of their initial tries. Roadbug has the best Tomlinson rating for the distance in this field by far, and she shows a steady workout pattern going back into September.
Sound City is another first time starter that shows a nice unbroken workout tab going back into the baseball season. Also note that Jockey Rafael Bejarano will be on board Sound City, and not the Hollendorfer entry.
Be Nice, also a first time starter, is sired by Successful Appeal, whose get win approximately 16.7% of their debuts. Tall and Sweet is a debut runner trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins with approximately 30% of such. Ebony Princess, one of two experienced runners in this field, showed some early speed last time out on the Del Mar polytrack; if she can get off quickly today, Ebony Princess may be home free before the debut runners figure out what's going on.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 62k/N$Y - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Popalicious (ML 7-2)
# 5 Sweet Marini (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Magic Lily (ML 3-1)
# 6 Be Proud (ML 6-1)
# 8 Pearl de Vere (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
Not sure why the "Y" is in the abbreviated condition code, as the full conditions make no reference to when the runners won their respective races, at least as regards eligibility. So consider this one an OC / N2X; and be forewarned that it looks to be a wide open affair.
Popalicious won at this class level over this track at today's distance last time out. That race was back in September; note that Trainer Eddie Truman wins approximately 27% of the time with runners returning from a two-to-six month vacation.
Sweet Marini won by over three lengths at this track at today's distance last time out at a class level just a rung below this one. Note the quick turnaround for Sweet Marini, as she comes back again on less than two weeks rest. My guess is that Trainer Bob Baffert wants to give her another race over the Los Al surface before the action shifts to Santa Anita for the next six months.
Magic Lily steps up in class after a clear win last time out on the Del Mar polytrack. Magic Lily has shown herself to be competitive at this level when racing back in Florida. Be Proud won a listed stakes up state two starts back, and has finished in the Exacta in all three of her career starts on a fast dirt track.
Pearl de Vere blew the start her last time out; two starts back she was a daylight winner at this track at a class level one rung below this event. We'll find out today if her failure in her last outing was a fluke.
RACE 8 - The Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Dortmund (ML 4-5)
B's
# 4 Mr. Z (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 1 Bench Warrant (ML 15-1)
# 2 No Problem (ML 8-1)
# 5 Firing Line (ML 3-1)
Dortmund comes back to SoCal after a sojourn to Churchill Downs; a site to which he is expected to return in May. Dortmund, trained by Bob Baffert, romped against eleven others in that Churchill Downs event, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that is the career best in this field.
Mr. Z, trained by D Wayne Lukas, is the most experienced runner in this field, and has taken the Place four times in Graded Stakes company. No Problem is the only entrant in this field with a Graded Stakes win, having captured The Bob Hope at Del Mar last time out.
Firing Line, a $240k auction purchase back in April,, has put forth two fine efforts in his initial two contests. Firing Line has also been firing bullets in his Santa Anita workouts. Bench Warrant is on the ticket because I believe that if you're using every runner in a field except one, you might as well use them all.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Nevada Time (ML 5-2)
# 7 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 7-2)
# 10 Play Maker (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Your Bertrando (ML 4-1)
# 6 Triunfo (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 3 Exponentially (ML 12-1)
# 5 Tiz Not a Mobile (ML 20-1)
Nevada Time makes a bit of a sideways move on the class ladder in his second career start, as he runs for a cheaper price but now competes against open company instead of just California breds, which he faced in his debut. Trainer Jeff Mullins wins 20% of the time with runners trying to graduate in their second attempt.
Badasmywifeletsmeb has taken the Show in each of his last two starts at this class level. Play Maker has finished in the money in each of his last four starts over a fast dirt track, all at this class level.
Your Betrando goes on less than one week's rest after taking the Show upstate at Golden Gate this past Sunday; Trainer Salvador Naranjo wins 25% of the time with such. Triunfo looks to be rounding into top form, as his early speed carried him further last time out than it had in recent events.
Exponentially had a nice work over this track on the 13th, and just might prove that the sixteenth time's the charm. Tiz Not a Mobile is a first time starter with a couple of noticeable gaps in his workout pattern; but really, how much worse than these can he be?
OK, that's the analysis. As usual, we're going to play our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion; but I'm also going to punch a couple of extra tickets. I think Roadbug in the opening leg and Dortmund in the feature could be standouts; I know that they will be heavily bet. So what I want to do is price protect this play, so that if those two do come in we still have a reasonable chance at getting a decent return. It'll put us over our usual budget; but I think it's the proper strategy here. So with all that, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 1,5 with 3 with 4,7,10 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 1,4,5,6,8 with 3,4 with 2,4,6,7,10 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,7 with 1,5 with 3 with 4,7,10 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,5 with 1,2,5 with 4,7,10 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,5 with 3 with 3,5 $2.00
A's With ALL in the Finale
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,5 with 3 with ALL $10.00
Roadbug and Dortmund Hopscotch Double
$0.50 P4: 8 with ALL with 3 with ALL $40.00
Total: $126.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:50 EST / 2:50 PST. Good luck to all.
Answer to Trivia Question: The first running of the Hollywood Futurity in 1981 was won by Stalwart, trained by D Wayne Lukas and ridden by Chris J. McCarron.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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