Sunday, December 7, 2014

12/7/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Sunday and, um, that's pretty much all I've got for an introduction.  So let's just get to it.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Silk in Silver (Morning Line 2-1)
# 4 Gelila (ML 8-1)
# 6 Wildy Excessive (ML 10-1)

B's

None

C’s

# 2 Incredible Journey (ML 3-1)

Silk in Silver comes into today's contest riding a three race winning streak.  Silk in Silver is moving up the class ladder, but the Beyer Speed Figures that she's earned in her last two starts (both two turns on real dirt) fit in well here.

Gelila's last two dirt starts were on this track at today's distance at this class level, and she missed by just a nose of winning them both.  Wildly Excessive is two-for-two over this track; the only two Wins of her career.  Note also that her most recent victory was at this class level.

In her last race over this track, Incredible Journey took the Show at this class level, less than a length behind Wildly Excessive and Gelila.

RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Rough Passage (ML 5-2)
# 5 Alamo (ML 2-1)

B's

# 8 Simon Kenton (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 1 Easy Ten (ML 15-1)
# 7 Ten to Show (ML 6-1)

Rough Passage took a few steps back when he began facing older horses, but he seems to be rounding back into top form.  Alamo makes his first start since August; but his workouts have been strong, and Trainer Richard Mandella does well with runners returning from a three-to-six month vacation.

Simon Kenton didn't like the grass his last time out, and should improve with a return to dirt.  Easy Ten and Ten to Show are a pair of second-time starters going for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, whose chargers tend to significantly improve in the race following their debuts.

RACE 8 - [R] (F) The Soviet Problem $200k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 My Fiona (ML 8-5)

B's

# 3 Niassa (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 1 Heat the Rocks (ML 2-1)
# 5 Princess Bertrando (ML 5-1)

My Fiona has a a pair of state-bred stakes wins, and she was capable enough to take the Show against open stakes company in the Landaluce.  Niassa is the only runner in this contest besides My Fiona with multiple career wins.  

Heat the Rocks tries winners for the first time after an impressive maiden win on the Del Mar plastic.  Princess Bertrando took a big step forward her last time out on real dirt; perhaps she can build off that move.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 Copper City (ML 9-2)
# 7 Runningwiththelute (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Norastone (ML 10-1)
# 6 Best In Class (ML 6-1)
# 8 Cin City Lady (ML 12-1)

C's

# 3 She's Flush (ML 6-1)
# 4 Nothing to Hide (ML 6-1)
# 9 Maria Hooch (ML 15-1)

# 2 Moscato Girl (ML 3-1) has been scratched.

Copper City invades from the North, having won at this level two starts back, and just missing against more expensive last time out.  Runningwiththelute has two career Wins and one career Place, all in her only three races over this track.  

Norastone won a first level Allowance in Philadelphia back in January, but has only raced twice since.  Norastone was well beaten in those two races, but she was also facing much stiffer competition than she's going to see here.

Best In Class ran huge wile breaking her maiden in her only prior start on dirt.  Cin City Lady is the one most likely to be charging late if the issue is still in doubt.  The "C's" are everybody else.

OK, that's the analysis.  We're going to change things up a bit; but just a bit.  We'll still be playing our tickets via the Crist method, but we're going to combine all the "A" and "B" Selections together on one ticket; so we won't be shut out if we get one "A" with three "B's".  So with that we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5, with 4 with 5,7 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5,8 with 3,4 with 1,5,6,7,8 $45.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,5, with 4 with 5,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 1,7 with 4 with 5,7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5, with 1,5 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6, with 4,5, with 4 with 3,4,9 $9.00

Total: $80.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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