Hopefully all of you are in the midst of a joyous, thankful, and triumphant Memorial Day weekend. Like many horseplayers throughout the county, our plans experienced a sudden change when The Rainbow Six @ Gulfstream Park got hit one day prior to mandatory payout day. So with that we shift gears and shift coasts, turning our attention to the west as we take a run at the Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k N2L - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Stormin Lute (Morning Line 9-5)
# 2 Mavericks Gun (ML 9-5)
C's
None
Stormin Lute graduated in his second attempt last year after just missing in his debut, leaving the gate in both races as the Post Time favorite. He was claimed in that victory away from Bob Baffert to the Peter Miller barn for $20k. In addition to his change of stable Stormin Lute also received an eight month vacation. While the combination of a long layoff coupled with a big jump in class (as Stormin Lute is not just going against winners for the first time, but is also going up in claiming price) could be concerns, those concerns are easily addressed, as Trainer Peter Miller does quite well with those coming back from an extended holiday, while the large margin of victory Stormin Lute enjoyed in his graduation suggests that he was simply priced to sell. The only question I see here is will Stormin Lute's form transfer from the synthetic to real dirt.
Mavericks Gun drops down on the class ladder, moving from Starter Allowance N2L company to running once again with a price tag on his head. Mavericks Gun's last two Beyer Speed Figures are tops in the field, and if he runs back to those numbers he'll be the one crossing the wire first.
RACE 7 - (F) The Gamely (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Stormy Lucy (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Emotional Kitten (ML 7-2)
# 7 Parranda (ML 7-2)
Best wishes for a speedy recovery to Jockey Rafael Bejarano, out of the hospital and back home recuperating from the injuries he sustained a couple of weeks ago. I mention Bejarano here as he was brought to mind while looking at this contest's past performances, which show that fully one third of this field enjoyed their last victory with Bejarano on their back.
# 1 Customer Base (ML 8-1) defeated Stormy Lucy over this turf course at today's distance back in December in the Grade 3 Bobby Frankel. But that was by just a nose, with Customer Base running the best race of her life. Customer Base had a rough trip her last time out, and the presence of Jockey Mike Smith here rather than on Emollient certainly gives one pause before dismissing her chances; but even if Customer Base were to repeat that career best effort again today, she would still be unlikely to cross the wire first.
Emotional Kitten missed victory by just a length last time out in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley in a career best effort. Should she take another step forward she could be the clear winner in this one, and that seven furlong move she made in her last Keeneland workout suggests that she's coming into this one in top shape.
Stormy Lucy has beaten most of these in her last two, including Emotional Kitten and Emollient; so any play against Stormy Lucy must make the case that she will regress while the others advance. And while such is always possible in horse racing (or any other athletic competition, for that matter) to project such strikes us more as wishcasting rather than handicapping. Yes, Stormy Lucy could lose today; hence the use of backups in this leg. But barring a complete reversal of form, Stormy Lucy is clearly the one to beat.
Parranda has had no problem finding the Winner's Circle, getting her picture taken after five of her last seven events. But all those contests were against much weaker competition; indeed, the one time that Parranda tried Grade 2 company she found herself a well beaten sixth. But she did take a nice step forward last time out in her first race for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer; and she is three-for-five at today's distance. I personally would demand better odds than the Morning Line of 7-2 to play her in the Win Pool; but she does rate an upset chance, especially when you factor in that she's one of the few here who has yet to lose to Stormy Lucy.
# 8 Emollient (ML 3-1) has twice competed over the Santa Anita turf course, and has finished out of the money both times. Emollient has twice competed at today's distance on the grass, and has finished out of the money both times. Emollient has competed three times on the synthetic surface at Keeneland, including her last time out. The two prior times she competed at Keeneland she finished out of the money in her next race. Two starts back Emollient was a well beaten fourth behind Stormy Lucy. Mike Smith, who has ridden Emollient in each of her last eight races, will today be riding Customer Base instead. I may be playing with fire by leaving her off the ticket, but Emollient has more of the look of one who needs everything to break just right in order to win, rather than the look of a Morning Line Favorite.
RACE 8 - [S](F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Dutch Chocolate (ML 8-1)
# 7 Say's Who (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Afleet Echo (ML 7-2)
# 11 Swiss Perfection (ML 6-1)
# 12 Bellanza (ML 12-1)
Dutch Chocolate's sire gets approximately 14% winners from his debuting get, while Trainer David Hofmans gets approximately 13% Winners (with a profit) from his first time runners. Say's Who took the Show her last time out at today's level, and should appreciate the turnback in distance.
Maidens under Trainer Mark Glatt don't typically advance in their second start; but Afleet Echo's trip in his debut (in which he left the gate as the Post Time Favorite) was bad enough to warrant a second chance. Swiss Perfection has flashed early speed in each of her prior two starts, and the one she took the Place behind in her debut came back to win again. With the blinkers added today, she may be the one the rest of the field has to run down.
Tribal Rule, Bellanza's sire, gets approximately 14% winners from his debuting offspring. Bellanza has been working well, and possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in the field. Add in that she draws the furthest outside post (the ideal position for a first time starter) and she could be worth a shot in the Win Pool if she goes to post at her Morning Line odds or higher.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 4 Gratification (ML 4-1)
# 7 Pouncerounddaclock (ML 10-1)
# 8 Comealongwithme (ML 9-2)
# 9 Humming Beethoven (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 3 See Through (ML 6-1)
# 11 Bird In Love (ML 6-1)
Gratification just missed graduating in the Florida slop in her debut; she projects to be at least that good on the grass. Pouncerounddaclock is from a sire that produces approximately 14% winners from his debuting get, and runs for a trainer (John Sadler) who wins with approximately 26% of his first time runners. The fact that Rosie Napravnik has signed on for the mount must be seen as a plus.
If you remove her one dirt effort, Comealongwithme has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of her starts. Humming Beethoven looked solid in her return from a fifteen month layoff; a similar effort today puts her right in the mix.
See Through took the Show in her debut charging down the hill; but that was back in October, so the long layoff is a concern. Bird In Love (GB) seems to have regressed since her debut back in January; but the addition of blinkers and the presence of Jockey Mike Smith may revive her spirits.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,2 with 3 with 3,7 with 4,7,8,9 $16.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 2,7 with 3,7 with 4,7,8,9 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 3 with 2,11,12 with 4,7,8,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 3 with 3,7 with 3,11 $4.00
Total: $48.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:03 EDT / 4:03 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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