5/16/14 Pimlico Jackpot Pick Five - Preview

“Perseverance is not a long race; it is many short races one after the other.” – Walter Elliot

Persevere we must, as we continue to battle on, looking for new and creative methods to identify contenders, find value plays, and, most important of all, stay three steps ahead of the bill collectors.  It's Preakness weekend in Maryland, and Friday's card is full of action, including The Black-Eyed Susan, The Pimlico Special, and the Hall of Fame Jockey Challenge (note that, due to the large number of scratches, the wager on the challenge has been cancelled, though the challenge itself remains).  Friday's card is also expected to be full of rain; exactly how much remains to be seen, but it could be heavy; so don't be surprised if some of the turf events are moved to the main track.  EDIT - The rains came with a vengeance; all turf events have been moved to the main track.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 25k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1A Seaside (Morning Line 12-1)
# 7 Perique (ML 10-1)

C’s

None

EDIT: THIS RACE HAS BEEN MOVED OFF THE TURF

This is the finale of the four Hall of Fame Jockey Challenge races (the others being Races 2, 4, and 6).

Perique took the Show at this level over this track last time out.  Perique also seems better suited to dirt rather than turf.  Seaside is three-for-four in her career when competing on an off track.

RACE 9 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint $100k - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Great Attack (ML 7-2)
# 2 Smash and Grab (ML 15-1)
# 8 Ben's Cat (ML 7-5)

C’s

None

EDIT: THIS RACE HAS BEEN MOVED OFF THE TURF

Ben's Cat, winner of The Jim McKay Turf Sprint in 2011 and 2013, prepped for this event last year by winning The Mister Diz Stakes by a length and three quarters with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure.  Last month Ben's Cat won The Mister Diz Stakes by a length and three quarters with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure.  Incidentally, that marked the fifth time that Ben's Cat has won The Mister Diz Stakes, including the last time that it was run in August at Laurel Park in 2010 (since then The Mister Diz has been held in April at Pimlico).

Great Attack certainly has the back-class to compete here, and the softer footing from the rains may be just what his old hoofs need; but the gap in works from April 5 to May 3 for a horse returning from a six month vacation does raise an eyebrow.  Smash and Grab could be quickest off the mark in the slop.

RACE 10 - (F) The Black-Eyed Susan (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 America (ML 8-1)
# 3 Shanon Nicole (ML 6-1)
# 4 Stopchargingmaria (ML 7-2)
# 5 Euphrosyne (ML 4-1)
# 6 Arethusa (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sloane Square (ML 5-1)
# 9 Fortune Pearl (ML 12-1)
# 10 Vero Amore (ML 15-1)

C’s

None

This one has the smell of chaos, as only one entrant (Stopchargingmaria) has a career best Beyer Speed Figure within ten points of the Beyer Par for this class level.  America has been showing steady improvement and working well; she just may take a big step forward today.  Draw a line through Shanon Nicole's effort in The Bourbonette Oaks, and respect the Jockey/Trainer duo of Mike Smith with Michael Maker.  Stopchargingmaria is the only two-time Graded Stakes winner in the field; though it's worth noting that she has yet to win as a three year old.

Euphrosyne should appreciate not having to face Sugar Shock yet again.  Arethusa has the best Tomlinson Ratings in the field for both Distance and Wet surfaces; if the pace should all fall apart, she could be the one charging late.  If the pace doesn't fall apart, the Todd Pletcher trained Sloane Square could be the one that leads the pack from gate to wire; though it's worth noting that Johnny V has jumped off Sloane Square's back to ride America for Trainer Bill Mott.  

Fortune Pearl is the only entrant with a win over the Pimlico main track, and, like Arethusa, should be gaining ground late.  Vero Amore has been in the Exacta both times that she's competed on an off track, and she was not embarrassed when competing against the boys two starts back.

RACE 11 - (F) The Miss Preakness $100k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Stormy Novel (ML 15-1)
# 8 Jojo Warrior (ML 5-2)
# 9 Our Lesmis (ML 5-1)

C’s

None

Stormy Novel was quick on the synthetic in The Bourbonette Oaks; that should carry over to the main track.  Tea Time's last effort, a return after an extended vacation on a surface she did not enjoy, can be forgiven; but she looks like she needs the lead early to win, and I don't see her getting that early lead today.  Tepin may be better suited to longer.  Jojo Warrior takes off the hood, so don't expect her on the front end early as she was in the Eight Belles; rather, expect her to rate as she did two starts back.  Our Lesmis is a perfect two-for-two for her career, and comes into this one with the best last-out Beyer (earned, incidentally, over an off track).  This could be a big day for Jockey Frankie Pennington.

RACE 12 - The Pimlico Special (Grade 3) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Moreno (ML 7-2)
# 5 Carve (ML 5-1)
# 6 Revolutionary (ML 5-2)
# 7 Major King (ML 50-1)

C’s

None

Moreno should be the speed of the speed here.  Moreno also has the field best Tomlinson Ratings for both Distance and Wet surfaces.  Carve has run well for Trainer Brad Cox.  Revolutionary's form looks much better if you toss out the effort in The Donn Handicap, run over a Gulfstream Park track over which it was just too difficult to close.  Major King (Kor) has no chance on paper, and looks like he absolutely does not belong in this field.  So why put him on the ticket?  Because there had to be some reason why someone thought it was a good idea to enter a horse bred in Korea and sired by a Brazilian stallion in a Graded Stakes race a month after the horse was beaten by forty lengths.

OK, that's the analysis.  It's a jackpot and it's just a dime, so just throw everything on one ticket:

All A Entries

$0.10 P5: 1,7 with 1,2,8 with 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10 with 1,8,9 with 3,5,6,7 $57.60

Total: $57.60

Post Time for Race 8 is 3:36 EDT / 12:36 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo