RACE 8 - The James W Murphy $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Camden Street (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Thunder Strike (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Special Envoy (ML 3-1)
# 3 Sonny Inspired (ML 8-1)
Were I a braver man, I would single Thunder Strike (GB) here. Thunder Strike has been competing overseas against much stiffer competition than that which he faces today, as evidenced by his career turf earnings (work it out on a per-race basis and you'll see it's best in the field). The Jockey/Trainer tandem of John Velazquez and Graham Motion definitely adds to the appeal. Distance may be a problem, and Thunder Strike's "effort" in his North American debut is nothing to be proud of; therefore the inclusion of the others on the ticket. But if Thunder Strike goes to Post at odds equal to or greater than his Morning Line of 8-1, I would definitely recommend grabbing some action in the Win Pool.
RACE 9 - (F) The Gallorette Handicap (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Somali Lemonade (ML 7-2)
# 7 Strathnaver (GB) (ML 3-1)
# 10 Watsdachances (Ire) (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Embarr (ML 15-1)
# 6 Lady Ten (ML 10-1)
With Brenda's Way scratching today, Somali Lemonade could get a front running trip similar to the one he enjoyed last time out. Should he improve off that effort (as those running for Trainer Michael Matz tend to do their second time off a layoff) he could be getting his picture taken before many in this field get started. Strathnaver (GB) and Watsdachances (Ire) certainly have the back class to win at this level, but they may be compromised by the projected pace in this event.
Embarr is the local hero, with four wins in five tries over this turf course. Lady Ten could challenge Somali Lemonade on the front end; it'll certainly be interesting to see if her from transfers from the opposite coast.
RACE 10 - The Sir Barton $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Master Lightning (ML 6-1)
# 10 Class Leader (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Six Spot (ML 5-1)
# 3 Life in Shambles (ML 6-1)
# 6 Starry Moon (ML 8-1)
Had he not scratched, # 11 Charge Now (ML 9-2) would have been considered an "A" contender.
Master Lightning gets some much needed class relief here, and the Johnny V / Todd Pletcher combo must be respected. Class Leader is another that takes a step down the class ladder, in his case after holding his form (as evidenced by the Beyer that he earned) against Graded Stakes competition.
All three "C" contenders have been showing steady improvement in their respective Beyers, evidence of the maturation you expect from horses at this age. While I don't see any as the equal of the two that I selected as top contenders, I respect the possibility that any of these could take a big step forward here today.
Master Lightning gets some much needed class relief here, and the Johnny V / Todd Pletcher combo must be respected. Class Leader is another that takes a step down the class ladder, in his case after holding his form (as evidenced by the Beyer that he earned) against Graded Stakes competition.
All three "C" contenders have been showing steady improvement in their respective Beyers, evidence of the maturation you expect from horses at this age. While I don't see any as the equal of the two that I selected as top contenders, I respect the possibility that any of these could take a big step forward here today.
RACE 11 - The Dixie (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Up With the Birds (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 6 Hey Leroy (ML 5-2)
# 7 Chamois (ML 6-1)
Up With the Birds is the only Grade 1 winner in this field. Up With Birds is also averaging over $100k in earnings for each turf start. The only concern here is Up With Birds' late running style, as this projects on paper to be a pretty paceless affair; hence the inclusion of the two "C" contenders.
Up With the Birds is the only Grade 1 winner in this field. Up With Birds is also averaging over $100k in earnings for each turf start. The only concern here is Up With Birds' late running style, as this projects on paper to be a pretty paceless affair; hence the inclusion of the two "C" contenders.
RACE 12 - The Preakness (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 California Chrome (ML 3-5)
C’s
# 1 Dynamic Impact (ML 12-1)
Whatever one may think of California Chrome's effort in the Kentucky Derby from a historic context, I think it was pretty clear that he was the dominant horse in this year's field. So while it's not impossible for # 2 General a Rod (ML 15-1) or # 10 Ride On Curlin (ML 10-1) to win today, I don't think one can practically make one of those two a selection today.
So that leaves us with the newcomers, or new shooters, if you will. And several of them do have a resume that makes them worth considering. For example, # 8 Social Inclusion (ML 5-1) has the best career Beyer Speed Figure in the field. # 7 Kid Cruz (ML 20-1) is second only to California Chrome in this field in career victories. More importantly, Kid Cruz's stakes victories came from closing deep, and there is certainly enough early pace in today's field to make a deep closer a very attractive commodity. It's very easy to imagine Kid Cruz winning today's Preakness with a trip similar to the one Revolutionary took in winning yesterday's Pimlico Special. But Kid Cruz has yet to display that ability against the level of competition that he'll be facing today; while Social Inclusion's huge Beyer Speed Figure must be discounted, earned as it was over a very speed favoring Gulfstream Park main track.
# 4 Ring Weekend (ML 20-1) and # 5 Bayern (ML 10-1) are another pair of newcomers worth considering. Indeed, someone whose opinion of horseflesh I have tremendous respect for (and not just because he's right more often than I am, as was proved yet again this past Derby weekend at Green Valley Ranch) has suggested that I would be well served including these two in my Preakness play.
And he most certainly has a point. Ring Weekend, in the last race in which he really tried, was the convincing winner of The Tampa Bay Derby with a Beyer Speed Figure that compares quite well with the one earned by California Chrome in the Kentucky Derby. Bayern has yet to put up a Beyer below ninety, and his only loss came after a two month layoff. Note also (as pointed out in the DRF PPs notes by Brian Mulligan) that Bayern's May 12 workout at Churchill Downs was in company with multiple Graded Stakes winner Drill, and it was Bayern who posted the faster time. Finally, Ring Weekend and Bayern are conditioned by a pair of trainers (Graham Motion and Bob Baffert, respectively) whose resumes speak for themselves.
But in the end I just couldn't pull the trigger on either Ring Weekend or Bayern. My decision was based upon my belief that neither has shown themselves to be the equal of California Chrome in their prior races, and I don't think either is going to take the necessary step forward today to reach the wire before he does. In addition, I don't think either Ring Weekend or Bayern is going to be flattered by the pace setup in today's contest, as I think the most likely scenario is that these two will be fighting up front early and tiring late. So should I be wrong about Ring Weekend and/or Bayern we'll just have to mark it up as one more time that this colleague of mine was right and I was wrong.
So why then Dynamic Impact? Why include a horse who needed five tries to break his maiden, and then just barely won the Grade 3 Illinois Derby? Good question. In fact, I'll toss in another good question: Why include a horse on the rail who shouldn't be on the lead early, and will therefore have to fight through traffic in the stretch just to get to the wire? To be honest, there are a lot of negatives surrounding Dynamic Impact; and I certainly don't see him as an equal of California Chrome. But Dynamic Impact's Beyer Speed Figure pattern, a list of steady continuous improvement culminating in what is the best last out Beyer in this field, makes him a must use. Indeed, it's a pattern that reminds me a great deal of the one sported by War Emblem over a decade ago, when he went from winning The Illinois Derby to crossing the wire first in the 2002 Kentucky Derby.
So how to play it? Fortunately the Jackpot aspect of today's Pick Five is not in play, as today is a mandatory payout day for the carryover; so we don't need to worry about having multiple winning tickets (some who regularly follow this blog may say we never need to worry about having multiple winning tickets, but I think that's just a little bit unkind). Ideally, I would have a ticket with California Chrome and all other contenders several more times than just once; but I am counting on having my house air conditioned this Summer, and the power company has suggested that paying the electric bill that was due back in March would go a long way towards making that happen. Anyway, here are the tickets that I'll be putting in today:
All A Entries
$0.40 P5: 2,6 with 3,7,10 with 5,10 with 8 with 3 $4.80
All Contenders
$0.10 P5: 1,2,3,6 with 2,3,6,7,10 with 2,3,5,6,10 with 6,7,8 with 1,3 $60.00
And just in case:
All A Entries With ALL in The Preakness
$0.10 P5: 2,6 with 3,7,10 with 5,10 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 $12.00
Total: $76.80
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:19 EDT / 12:19 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
So why then Dynamic Impact? Why include a horse who needed five tries to break his maiden, and then just barely won the Grade 3 Illinois Derby? Good question. In fact, I'll toss in another good question: Why include a horse on the rail who shouldn't be on the lead early, and will therefore have to fight through traffic in the stretch just to get to the wire? To be honest, there are a lot of negatives surrounding Dynamic Impact; and I certainly don't see him as an equal of California Chrome. But Dynamic Impact's Beyer Speed Figure pattern, a list of steady continuous improvement culminating in what is the best last out Beyer in this field, makes him a must use. Indeed, it's a pattern that reminds me a great deal of the one sported by War Emblem over a decade ago, when he went from winning The Illinois Derby to crossing the wire first in the 2002 Kentucky Derby.
So how to play it? Fortunately the Jackpot aspect of today's Pick Five is not in play, as today is a mandatory payout day for the carryover; so we don't need to worry about having multiple winning tickets (some who regularly follow this blog may say we never need to worry about having multiple winning tickets, but I think that's just a little bit unkind). Ideally, I would have a ticket with California Chrome and all other contenders several more times than just once; but I am counting on having my house air conditioned this Summer, and the power company has suggested that paying the electric bill that was due back in March would go a long way towards making that happen. Anyway, here are the tickets that I'll be putting in today:
All A Entries
$0.40 P5: 2,6 with 3,7,10 with 5,10 with 8 with 3 $4.80
$0.10 P5: 1,2,3,6 with 2,3,6,7,10 with 2,3,5,6,10 with 6,7,8 with 1,3 $60.00
All A Entries With ALL in The Preakness
$0.10 P5: 2,6 with 3,7,10 with 5,10 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 $12.00
Total: $76.80
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:19 EDT / 12:19 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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