RACE 6 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Big Score (Morning Line 8-1)
# 13 Oscar Performance (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Lancaster Bomber (ML 6-1)
# 3 Channel Maker (ML 30-1)
# 11 Good Samaritan (ML 9-2)
C's
# 8 Intelligence Cross (ML 6-1)
# 10 Bowies Hero (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 15 Kitten's Cat (ML 20-1) and # 16 Harbour Master (GB) (ML 20-1) as they do not draw in off the Also Eligible List
Before commenting on the above selections, this seems like a good place to make the point that I make seemingly every year: this is the Breeders' Cup. These are the best horses in the world. No matter where you land in these races, you're landing on a good horse. Well, the corollary to that is, unless you hit the "ALL" button in each leg, you're going to be leaving a lot of good horses off your tickets. So accept that; use your best judgement; make your selections; and enjoy the races.
Big Score has shown steady improvement in each of his three career starts. Big Score is the local hero in this contest, being the only runner in the field with a win over this turf course.
Oscar Performance's two career wins have come on the front end; with the wide draw, expect Oscar Performance to use that speed more tactically today. Lancaster Bomber and Channel Maker will be the most likely leaders in the early going; should one fail to go, the other just might steal it. Channel Maker could also move forward with an easier trip than that which he experienced last time out.
Good Samaritan could be the one running best late. Intelligence Cross must be respected for the connections; but note that this is not only the first time that Intelligence Cross will be going around two turns, but around any turns. Bowies Hero seemingly regressed sharply last time out; but if Bowies Hero can return to the form that he showed two starts back in winning the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, then he will be right in the mix today.
RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Dortmund (ML 6-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Vyjack (ML 10-1)
# 4 Point Piper (ML 20-1)
# 8 Tamarkuz (ML 8-1)
# 9 Gun Runner (ML 9-2)
# 4 Point Piper (ML 20-1)
# 8 Tamarkuz (ML 8-1)
# 9 Gun Runner (ML 9-2)
Dortmund is the most talented horse in this field. In his thirteen career starts Dortmund has lost five times: three to California Chrome, and two to American Pharoah. Neither California Chrome nor American Pharoah are running in this contest.
But as talented as Dortmund is, it's generally accepted that eight furlongs is not his preferred distance. And while I agree with that assessment, it should be noted that Dortmund has the best career Beyer Speed Figure for the distance in this field. Granted, for those of you using Brisnet Past Performances rather than those from the Daily Racing Form, Dortmund has the fourth best speed figure for the distance in the field, behind Tamarkuz, Point Piper, and Vyjack; but the point still stands that, while eight furlongs may not be Dortmund's best distance, it's still a distance at which he has done quite well.
Bottom line: we're going pretty deep in the two juvenile turf races that sandwich this contest. If we're going to do that and still have an affordable big ticket, then we're going to have to single either here or in the BC Distaff. I've decided to make my stand here, as I can do so knowing that I've landed on the most talented horse in this field.
As for the backup selections, we've already mentioned Vyjack, Point Piper, and Tamarkuz above. Gun Runner, like Dortmund, is better suited to longer distances; but Gun Runner's tactical speed coupled with the outside draw means that he just might find himself with a dream trip that could put him into position for the upset.
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Lull (ML 15-1)
# 14 La Coronel (ML 9-2)
B's
# 1 Hydrangea (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 7 Intricately (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 7 Intricately (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 13 Roly Poly (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 New Money Honey (ML 10-1)
# 4 Spain Burg (Fr) (ML 5-1)
# 16 Sweeping Paddy (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 5 Victory to Victory (ML 12-1). Also scratch # 15 Con Te Partiro (ML 30-1) who does not draw in off the Also Eligible List; but it looks like (at least for now) that Sweeping Paddy will run.
La Coronel and Lull filled out the Exacta in the Grade 3 Jessamine last month at Keeneland, and I think they stand an excellent chance of doing likewise again today. The only concern I see for Lull is that she seemingly ran out of gas before the wire in that last outing, which was her first time routing. However, I feel confident that Lull will learn from that experience, and that this filly out of a Tiznow mare will make the distance today; and with a Morning Line of 15-1, I think it's worth the risk to presume that she will.
Hydrangea (Ire) will be speed on the rail. A concern with Hydrangea is the four Place finishes in six career starts versus just one victory; but you'll note the comment section that Hydrangea has kept on in her outings, so I think this filly has just met with bad fortune rather than having an unwillingness to cross the wire first.
Intricately (Ire) is the only European Group 1 winner in this field (a win earned, incidentally, by a nose over Hydrangea). Roly Poly, like Lull, is sired by War Front; and the question for Roly Poly, like Lull, is will her speed career her the full distance.
New Money Honey may have been aided last time out by the soft footing; but she crossed the wire comfortably ahead of a couple others in here, so maybe the yielding turf was only a minor factor in her win. Spain Burg (Fr), winner of the Group 2 Rockfel last time out, has shown steady improvement in each of her five career starts; though this will be Spain Burg's first try at today's distance. Sweeping Paddy has been working well for this; interesting considering there was no guarantee that she would run.
RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Stellar Wind (ML 5-2)
# 8 Beholder (ML 5-2)
# 8 Beholder (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Songbird (ML 6-5)
# 7 I'm a Chatterbox (ML 12-1)
C's
# 3 Curalina (ML 12-1)
# 6 Forever Unbridled (ML 12-1)
You'll notice Songbird is not an "A" Selection. I'll be honest, I'm not completely convinced that she shouldn't be a "C" Selection; but leaving a horse that has won ten straight North American Graded Stakes off your big ticket is a good way to find yourself waking up in cold sweats in the middle of the night. So onto the big ticket she goes.
Songbird is, obviously, a superior horse who has enjoyed tremendous success. But all that success has come against those her own age. This will be her first try against older fillies and mares, and she's going against the two best in that category: Beholder, and the horse who has twice beaten Beholder, Stellar Wind. And I'm not convinced that Songbird is up to the challenge. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong.
I'm a Chatterbox goes onto the big ticket because if it all falls apart on the front end I think she'll have a big enough head start on Forever Unbridled that she'll beat that one to the wire; provided, of course, that I'm a Chatterbox doesn't get sucked into said pace meltdown, in which case Forever Unbridled could run past them all in the stretch. Curalina is being used as a backup because she seems to always run big when coming off a freshening; perhaps today Curalina runs her biggest race yet.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6,13 with 3 with 2,14 with 5,8 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,11,13 with 3 with 1,2,7,13,14 with 1,5,7,8 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 8,10 with 3 with 2,14 with 5,8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6,13 with 1,4,8,9 with 2,14 with 5,8 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 6,13 with 3 with 3,4,16 with 5,8 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 6,13 with 3 with 2,14 with 3,6 $4.00
Total: $88.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:25 EDT / 2:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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