Half of the final four events on Sunday's program in SoCal are turf routes for non-winners of one; that should make things interesting. So let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Nero (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 3 Cool Bobby (ML 7-2)
# 5 Best Two Minutes (ML 4-1)
# 7 Goren (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 The Rule of King's (ML 20-1)
# 2 Conquest Cobra (ML 5-1)
# 4 Denman's Call (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Allaboutaction (ML 5-1)
The Bob Baffert trained Nero has the capability in this contest to make me look very foolish for not making him a big ticket single. Nero has run well in each of his three career races, including last time out in the Grade 2 San Vicente, back in February. For his return off the extended vacation Nero is flashing the Baffert Bullets in his workouts, showing that he's ready to roll.
So what are the concerns with Nero? Well, while Nero ran well in each of his prior races, he didn't run all that well. In addition, this will be Nero's first try against older runners. So, while it may prove to be a foolish move on my part, I'm going to spread a bit in this leg.
Cool Bobby, another three year old making his first try against older, could improve with the return to one turn racing. Best Two Minutes, now trained by Steve Knapp, seems to win no matter which barn he runs for. Goren looked impressive in his graduation last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Bob and Jackie (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 All Out (ML 20-1)
# 7 Omaha Beach (ML 8-5)
# 8 Noble Nebraskan (ML 3-1)
# 10 Instanbul (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Shining Through (ML 20-1)
# 5 Macwinnon (ML 8-1)
# 6 Dinesen (ML 8-1)
# 9 Loomis (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 3 Afleeting Life (ML 20-1)
Using five runners in a leg where the Morning Line Favorite is listed at 8-5 means that this is another leg where I could wind up looking very foolish. But these are juveniles, with all the risks involved with trying to guess which ones may have experienced a sudden maturation since their last time on the track. In addition, more than than half the field is trying the turf for the first time; so there's no telling which ones may enjoy the lawn significantly more than they like the main track.
Finally, I'm not convinced that the aforementioned 8-5 Morning Line Favorite, Omaha Beach, is the most likely winner of this races. Yes, Omaha Beach is a fine runner, having finished in the Trifecta in each of his two prior career starts, both turf routes. But in each of those two races Omaha Beach failed as the Post Time Favorite; certainly something to give one pause before making him a big ticket single. So while I didn't punch the "ALL" button, I am using most of the field on the big ticket here, with the rest being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 8 - [S] The Cary Grant $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Edwards Going Left (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Touching Rainbows (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Tough But Nice (ML 12-1)
# 4 Solid Wager (ML 4-1)
# 5 Brandothebartender (ML 20-1)
# 6 Minoso (ML 30-1)
# 7 Shades of Victory (ML 12-1)
# 9 Grecian Fire (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 8 Ann Arbor Eddie (ML 5-1)
Shades of Victory was actually a neck better than Edwards Going Left the last time they paired off. But I'm using Edwards Going Left on the big ticket and not Touching Rainbows because I think Edwards Going Left benefits more from having one less turn to negotiate. Touching Rainbows has been working well and seems well meant here. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Push Through (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Cool Your Jets (ML 3-1)
# 8 Ostini (ML 8-1)
# 10 Captain Buzzkill (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Bouncing Around (ML 8-1)
# 4 Reckless Gravity (ML 15-1)
# 5 Single Me Out (ML 8-1)
# 6 When Jesus Walked (ML 30-1)
# 9 Hit the Seam (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 2 According to Buddy (ML 12-1)
Push Through has finished in the Trifecta at this class level on the turf in each of his last four races; three of those times disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. Push Through just may be a money eater; but it's hard to pick against him as a top choice, as once again Push Through looks best in the field.
Cool Your Jets took the Show at this class level last time out while charging down the Santa Anita hill. Ostini and Captain Buzzkill filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. The "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 4 with 3 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,7,8 with 2,4,7,8,10 with 2,3 with 3,7,8,10 $80.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4 with 4 with 3 with 7 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,5,6,9 with 3 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 with 7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4 with 3 with 1,4,5,6,9 $2.50
Total: $90.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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