Saturday, November 17, 2018

11/17/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

"I have seen what a laugh can do. It can transform almost unbearable tears into something bearable, even hopeful." - Bob Hope

Saturday's featured race is the Grade 3 Bob Hope, an event formerly known as the Hollywood Prevue back when it was run at a racetrack that no longer exists.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Jump the Tracks (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 4 Vintage Hollywood (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 June Two Four (ML 6-1)
# 2 From the Distance (ML 12-1)
# 3 Tap Tap Boom (ML 12-1)
# 5 Spirit World (ML 30-1)
# 7 Whoa Buddy (ML 5-1)

# 8 Livin On Prayer (ML 6-1)
# 9 Gryffindor (ML 6-1)


Jump the Tracks missed the winner's circle by just a neck last time out at this class level.  Vintage Hollywood returns to more favorable conditions after attempting to route on the turf against classier competition.  This could be the most formful leg of the sequence; if so, the above two in a Quinella looks solid; but don't expect it to pay much.  But just in case, the backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Paprika (ML 5-2)

B's

# 6 Weather Market (ML 6-1)
# 7 Absolutely Perfect (ML 9-2)
# 9 Lovely Finish (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Radish (ML 4-1)
# 2 Into Rissa (ML 6-1)
# 3 Spectacular Storm (ML 20-1)
# 4 Just Kathy (ML 20-1)

# 5 Miss Voluptuous (ML 8-1)

Paprika has trice taken the Place while charging down the Santa Anita hill.  If Paprika can bring that form to the Del Mar flats, then she should win  today.

Weather Market closed well at today's distance last time out.  Absolutely Perfect could improve on her debut effort with the change in distance and surface.  Lovely Finish's breeding suggests that she'll do well with the move to the lawn.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - The Bob Hope (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 6 Sparky Ville (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Mucho Gusto (ML 5-2)
# 4 Savagery (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Extra Hope (ML 7-2)
# 5 Owning (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 1 Metropol (ML 4-1) and # 7 Sueno (ML 15-1)

Sparky Ville is the only runner in this field of juveniles to have defeated winners.  The Bob Baffert trained Mucho Gusto had no trouble getting to the wire well in front of a next out winner last time out.  Savagery took the Place behind Sparky Ville last time out, and could move up with the return to Del Mar.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - Clm $8k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Matriculate (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Vending Machine (ML 3-1)
# 5 Go Ghetto (ML 4-1)
# 6 Louden's Gray (ML 4-1)
# 8 Baby Bear's Soup (ML 5-1)


C's

# 2 Pick One (ML 20-1)
# 4 Finallygotabentley (ML 12-1)

# 7 Lion Command (ML 20-1)
# 9 Many Treats (ML 30-1)
# 10 Air Pocket (ML 20-1)


Matriculate fits well at this level, though the almost half year layoff after a voided claim is a concern.  Vending Machine is a lifetime two-for-six on a Fast dirt track, and Vending Machine is getting some significant class relief here.

Go Ghetto has run well in the past over this main track.  Louden's Gray took the Place at this class level last time out.  Baby Bear's Soup could improve going second off the layoff.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 8 with 6 with 1 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 6,7,8,9 with 3,4,6 with 1,3,5,6,8 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,7,8,9 with 8 with 6 with 1 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 6 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 2,5 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 8 with 6 with 2,4,7,9,10 $2.50

Total: $70.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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