11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Earlier Pick Four - Preview

There are four, yes four, Pick Four plays being offered at Churchill Downs Saturday for Day 2 of the 2018 Breeders' Cup.  This preview is for for the second of the four; the one beginning with Race 4, the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.  Hopefully very soon I'll be posting a preview for the Pick 4 which culminates with the Breeders' Cup Classic.  So if all is clear let's get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The World's Most Legendary Racetrack.

RACE 4 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Disco Partner (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 7 Lost Treasure (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Stormy Liberal (ML 4-1)
# 10 Havana Grey (GB) (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Ruby Notion (ML 20-1)

# 2 Bucchero (ML 10-1)

# 3 Hembreee (ML 20-1)

# 4 Vision Perfect (ML 15-1)

# 6 Rainbow Heir (ML 12-1)

# 8 Chanteline (ML 15-1)

# 11 World of Trouble (ML 6-1)

# 12 Richard's Boy (ML 12-1)

# 13 Will Call (ML 20-1)
# 14 Conquest Tsunami (ML 6-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 15 Insta Erma (ML 30-1)

Note the extra half furlong for this event compared to the 2017 version run at Del Mar.  Speaking of 2017, I was tempted to relegate late year's winner of this event, Stormy Liberal, to backup "C" Selection status, as Stormy Liberal tends to leave his "A" Game back home in California.  Conversely, if I was to add another runner to the big ticket, it would probably be World of Trouble, as I think World of Trouble may be ready to handle the rise in class.  Everyone not on the big ticket is being used as a backup "C" Selection in this leg, as I think this contest is the one most likely to produce an upset winner.

RACE 5 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Catalina Cruiser (ML 8-5)

B's

# 1 City of Light  (ML 5-2)

# 6 Seeking the Soul (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Trigger Warning (ML 20-1)
# 3 Isotherm (ML 20-1)

# 4 Seven Trumpets (ML 15-1)
# 7 Firenze Fire (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bravazo (ML 20-1)

# 9 Giant Expectations (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 5 Awesome Slew (ML 15-1)

This will be one of the few times since its inception that this race will do that which it was intended to do; that is, provide a contest for one turn milers, those horses who don't really have the endurance to go around two turns, but aren't quite fast enough to sprint.

Seeking the Soul always seems to run well over this main track, which is why I decided to include him on the big ticket with Catalina Cruiser and City of Light.  Because of the relatively small field for this event, I'll be using everyone else as a backup "C" Selection.

RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Wild Illusion (GB) (ML 7-2)

B's

# 6 Sistercharlie (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 10 Magic Wand (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 14 Eziyra (Ire) (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 Fourstar Crook (ML 5-1)

# 2 Thais (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Paved (ML 20-1)

# 9 Raving Beauty (Ger) (ML 10-1)

Like the Turf Sprint above, this event will be a half furlong longer than it was when it was run last year at Del Mar.

Believe it or not, Sistercharlie (Ire), the Morning Line Favorite, was the one that I came closest to leaving off the big ticket.  Sistercharlie has certainly done nothing wrong in her career; but I'm just not sure that she can handle this level of competition.  As you can see, I ultimately decided to place her on the big ticket; we'll just have to wait and see if that was the right move.  Note that this is the only leg of this sequence where the rest of the field is not being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Limousine Liberal (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 Whitmore (ML 6-1)

# 2 Promises Fulfilled (ML 6-1)

# 5 Imperial Hint (ML 9-5)

# 9 Roy H (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 B Squared (ML 20-1)

# 4 Warrior's Club (ML 15-1)

# 6 Always Sunshine (ML 20-1)

# 7 Distinctive B (ML 12-1)

Limousine Liberal is a Lifetime six-for-eight over this main track, which is why he tops my selections for this contest.  Had I been able to find a single in any one of the three prior events, I would be going "ALL" in for this leg.  Instead, I settled for using everyone not on the big ticket as a backup "C" Selection.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 10 with 3 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,7,9,10 with 1,6,10 with 3,6,10,14 with 1,2,5,8,9 $120.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,6,8,11,12,13,14 with 10 with 3 with 8 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,3,4,7,8,9 with 3 with 8 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 1,2,4,9 with 8 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 3 with 3,4,6,7 $2.00

Total: $133.00

Post Time for Race 4 is 12:38 EDT / 9:38 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo