The US Holiday weekend continues with a pair of Graded Stakes in Southern California. One of those, the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante, falls outside the final four contests on the card, and therefore outside my purview. But I will be taking a look at the Grade 2 Seabiscuit below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Popular Kid (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Jungle Warfare (ML 4-1)
# 7 Giant Influence (ML 5-1)
# 8 Sheer Flattery (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Jan's Reserve (ML 15-1)
# 3 Kershaw (ML 6-1)
# 6 Bellerin (ML 15-1)
# 9 Canadian Game (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Lord Guinness (ML 8-1)
Popular Kid, claimed six times in his last ten races, seems to win no matter which barn he runs for. Jungle Warfare has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last three races.
Giant Influence is getting some class relief. Sheer Flattery beat a next out winner last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - The Seabiscuit (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Pincheck (Ire) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Caribou Club (ML 6-1)
# 6 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 15-1)
# 10 Ohio (Brz) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Big Score (ML 6-1)
# 3 Ann Arbor Eddie (ML 8-1)
# 5 Holiday Stone (ML 12-1)
# 7 Synchrony (ML 9-2)
# 8 Kenjisstorm (ML 8-1)
# 9 Le Ken (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Secretary At War (ML 20-1)
# 12 He Will (ML 8-1)
Pincheck (Ire) makes his North American debut Saturday after decisively winning the Group 3 Desmond two starts back. Caribou Club closed well last time out to take the Show while charging down the Santa Anita hill in the Grade 3 Eddie D. Expect Caribou Club to be much closer to the pace today.
Madame Stripes (Arg) has been competitive at this class level all year long, despite not getting her picture taken since January. Ohio (Brz) could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $16k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Spokane Eagle (ML 3-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 2 Will Tell (ML 20-1)
# 3 Tanners Pride (ML 5-1)
# 4 Silver Summer (ML 15-1)
# 6 Face of Victory (ML 7-2)
# 7 Psychedelicat (ML 6-1)
# 8 Zippy Groom (ML 6-1)
# 9 Downside Up (ML 12-1)
# 10 Our Tiger's Boy (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Smuggler Union (ML 6-1)
If I were inclined to double the cost of the big ticket, I would probably make Face of Victory a "B" Selection. But I don't believe that the cost of moving Face of Victory up from backup "C" Selection territory to the big ticket can be justified in light of the fact that Face of Victory doesn't project to be a much higher price on the tote board than Spokane Eagle, despite having (in my opinion) a significant lower chance of winning. So Spokane Eagle is my big ticket single, with the rest of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Kentan Road (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 1 Suspicious Spouse (ML 6-1)
# 3 Helen's Tiger (ML 9-2)
# 5 Naughty Sophie (ML 7-2)
# 7 Happiness (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Fracas (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gone to Town (ML 12-1)
# 6 Well Hello (ML 6-1)
# 9 Batiquitos (ML 6-1)
# 10 Ladybug (ML 8-1)
# 11 Hailey Rachele (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 12 Easy Grader (ML 5-1); # 13 Time for Ebby (ML 20-1); # 14 Bako Sweets (ML 4-1)
Kentan Road took the Place at this class level last time out. Suspicious Spouse looks well poised to take advantage of the rail draw. Helen's Tiger could improve with the return to the Del Mar course.
Naughty Sophie took the Place at this class level in her first turf try last time out. Happiness seems to have the breeding to do well in turf sprints. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 4 with 5 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,7,8 with 1,4,6,10 with 5 with 1,3,5,7,8 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,9 with 4 with 5 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,3,5,7,8,9,11,12 with 5 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 5 with 2,4,6,9,10,11 $3.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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