“Reflect upon your present blessings, of which every man has plenty; not on your past misfortunes, of which all men have some.” – Charles Dickens
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! As America takes time as a nation to offer thanks for all with which it has been blessed, so too, I would like to take time to thank all of you who take time to read what an old handicapper has to say about horses running around in circles. Whether you come here every week or every blue moon, I'm grateful that you stopped by, and I hope that you enjoy your visit.
A programming note: while there will be racing (lots of racing!) Friday, other obligations mean that there will be no blog post here; but good Lord willing I'll be back posting on Saturday. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 5 - Clm $16k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Topgallant (Morning Line 5-1)
B’s
# 4 Secret Touch (ML 5-1)
# 5 Original Intent (ML 3-1)
# 6 Typhoon Harry (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Jersey's Heat (ML 8-1)
# 3 Rhettbutler (ML 8-1)
# 8 Midnight Soot (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Spirit Mission (ML 6-1)
The conditions for this one state that if your horse is four years old or older, he cannot run here if he has won two or more races in his lifetime. However, if your horse is three years old, then there is no lifetime Win restriction; at least there's none stated in the conditions; but the more I see races with these conditions the more I wonder if three year olds are restricted to no more than two career wins.
Topgallant is a reclaim by Trainer Dan Hendricks, after running two races for the barn of Trainer Jonathan Wong. Topgallant and Secret Touch have run well in the past over this main track.
Original Intent took the Place in front of Topgallant at this approximate level at Santa Anita last time out. Typhoon Harry goes first off the claim for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 6 - (F) The Red Carpet (Grade 3) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 3 Vexatious (ML 3-1)
# 9 Escape Clause (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 5 India Mantuana (ML 6-1)
# 6 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 7 Lucy De (ML 6-1)
# 8 So Hi Society (Ire) (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1 Victress (ML 20-1)
The Tuplip (Ire) could improve with the added distance. Vexatious got the Win via DQ in the Grade 3 Dowager at Keeneland last time out. Escape Clause got the Win via DQ in the Kathryn Crosby over this turf course last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Amuse (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 5 Sheza Chattykat (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Danuska's My Girl (ML 12-1)
# 3 Conquest Flatterme (ML 8-1)
# 4 Oozie (ML 5-2)
# 6 Lady Ninja (ML 4-1)
# 7 Kindred (ML 20-1)
This race goes through Amuse, a solid winner while graduating in her second career start last time out. If you don't find Amuse's Win last time out all that convincing, then you probably want to go deeper in this leg, and put Oozie (another last out graduate) and (probably) Lady Ninja on your big ticket, along with Sheza Chattykat. Conversely, you may like Amuse's victory last time out so much that you just make her a big ticket single here. I think I've struck the proper balance by going two deep; but there are certainly lots of ways you could go in this leg.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Amandine (GB) (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Oleksandra (Aus) (ML 7-2)
# 3 Tell Me More (ML 5-1)
# 5 A Little Bit Me (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lynne's Legacy (ML 15-1)
# 8 Tyfosha (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Poetic (ML 8-1)
# 7 Katherine (ML 8-1)
# 9 Drift Away (ML 20-1)
# 10 Wind Tartare (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 12 Miss Boom Boom (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 11 Lea's Reward (ML 30-1)
A first level Allowance race (well, Optional Claimer) on the turf. Lots of runners who have been hanging around this condition for awhile. Amandine (GB) is a new shooter, making her first North American start; so I'll give her the nod. Oleksandra (Aus) graduated in her North American debut last time out; maybe she'll build on that win. The rest of the logical contenders (in my opinion) go onto the big ticket, while all others are being used as backup "C" Selections; but in these contests on the turf, it often just comes down to which horse feels like winning today.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 4 with 2 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,7 with 3,4,9 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,5,6,8 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,8 with 4 with 2 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,5,6,7,8 with 2 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 1,3,4,6,7 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 2 with 4,7,9,10,12 $2.50
Total: $82.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:00 EST / 1:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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