RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Exposure (Morning Line 5-2)
# 6 This Is War (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Heavenly Candy (ML 8-1)
# 4 Sweet and Fuzzy (ML 6-1)
# 8 Conquest Curlgirl (ML 6-1)
# 9 Dr. Fager's Gal (ML 9-2)
Exposure and This is War are the only two runners in this field to have finished in the money at this class level. Dr. Fager's Gal, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is also an experienced runner, having debuted last Summer at Del Mar. She hasn't run since, but she did run respectably that day, and can be expected to improve off that performance.
Heavenly Candy, Sweet and Fuzzy, and Conquest Curlgirl are all first time starters. As none of the experienced runners have earned a Beyer Speed Figure in their prior outings that would approach par at this class level, it seems like a good idea to use some of the more favorable looking debut runners.
RACE 7 - The San Simeon (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Home Run Kitten (ML 5-2)
B's
None
# 3 Joes Blazing Aaron (ML 20-1) has been scratched
# 8 Sweet Swap (ML 3-1), winner of this event last year, finished behind # 6 Pure Tactics (ML 7-2) two starts back. # 7 U S Citizen (ML 6-1), who took the Place behind Sweet Swap last time out, twice finished behind # 5 Holy Lute (ML 3-1) this past Winter; one time getting the Win by DQ.
In my opinion, Sweet Swap, Pure Tactics, U S Citizen, and Holy Lute are all pretty evenly matched. I can't see making a reasonable case for using one of those four without using them all. As you can tell from above, I am not using any of them on my ticket. One reason is because it would make my ticket way over budget. But a more important reason is because I think Home Run Kitten is better than all of them. If I'm wrong in that opinion, then this ticket is going down in flames.
RACE 8 - (F) Hcp 12500s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Toomanytomatoes (ML 6-1)
# 4 Rosewhitenblue (ML 5-1)
# 6 French Alps (ML 8-5)
B’s
None
Note that this contest does not have any career Win restrictions in its conditions.
Toomanytomatoes missed by less than a length of defeating open $20k Claimers going around two turns over this main track two starts back. Rosewhitenblue took the Place sprinting on this main track against open $20k Claimers last time out.
French Alps, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has been earning Beyer Speed Figures on the Golden Gate Fields synthetic surface that would probably get the job done here today. Since she was successful in her only prior try over a fast dirt track, it's fair to expect her form to carry over to the different surface. But this contest is a decent step up the class ladder from those that French Alps has been facing, so it seems prudent to spread a bit here.
RACE 9 - [S] (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Charming Starlet (ML 5-2)
# 8 Scuti de Patuti (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Desireoftheheart (ML 7-2)
# 6 Ms. K J (ML 20-1)
# 14 Lirica Heat (Arg) (ML 6-1)
# 3 Big Move (ML 12-1) and # 12 Just Peachy (ML 12-1) have been scratched; so bring in the two Also Eligibles, # 13 Briartic Gal (ML 12-1) and # 14 Lirica Heat (Arg) (ML 6-1).
Charming Starlet is clearly the most talented runner in this field. Unfortunately, Charming Starlet has frequently been the most talented runner in the eleven prior fields in which she has competed in her career, on all surfaces, without winning. There is no question that Charming Starlet can win at this class level charging down the hill today; the only question is, "Does she want to?".
Scutti de Patuti took the Show charging down the hill at this class level last time out. Desireoftheheart is a first time starter sired by Unusual Heat, so taking to the turf should not be a problem. Ms. K J and Lirica Heat are both getting some class relief.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2 with 1,4,6 with 1,8 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6,8,9 with 2 with 1,4,6 with 1,4,6,8,14 $45.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EDT / 2:59 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment