Saturday, April 18, 2015

4/18/15 Charles Town All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview

We shift our focus today from West to East, as the Jerry Hollendorfer trained Shared Belief makes his first career start outside of California in Saturday's $1.5 Million Charles Town Classic, the anchor in a guaranteed $100k Pick Four.

RACE 9 - [S] (F) The Its Binn Too Long $50k - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Country Mama (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 2 Nay's Back (ML 9-2)
# 8 Get the Sensation (ML 5-2)

Country Mamma won her debut over this main track at today's distance, the only prior time in her career that she's competed at four and a half furlongs.  Country Mama is the only runner in this field to have beaten open (non-state restricted) company.  Nay's Back and Get the Sensation are the only other competitors in this field besides Country Mama to have defeated winners.

RACE 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Control Stake (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Estimated Prophet (ML 8-1)
# 5 Arkaybee (ML 9-2)
# 6 To the Victor (ML 10-1)

# 7 Noteworthy Peach (ML 8-1) has been scratched.

Control Side, trained by Tom Amoss, was a clear winner in the Big Drama Stakes at Delta Downs last time out.  Estimated Prophet should appreciate the added distance today.

Arkaybee misses by just half a length of being a perfect four-for-four for his career, all over this main track.  To the Victor could be the one running fastest late.

RACE 11 - (F) The Sugar Maple $150k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 2 Found (ML 12-1)
# 7 Flattering Bea (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Nesso (ML 3-1)

# 6 Frivolity (ML 5-1) will be scratched.  The fact that she wasn't scratched this morning means that she passed the veterinarian examination in West Virginia while still being stalled in New York.  Quite an accomplishment.

Found won by as many as she wanted to last time out over this main track at today's distance in a N3X Allowance.  Found is trained by Carla Morgan, who wins 20% of the time that she sends out runners seeking back-to-back victories.  Flattering Bea was the upset winner in last year's running of this event; her clear win last time out suggests that Flattering Bea is in shape and could find the Winner's Circle again today.  Nesso took the Show in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks the last time that she competed over this main track.  

RACE 12 - The Charles Town Classic (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Shared Belief (ML 2-5)

B's

None

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet." - Damon Runyon

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,7 with 4 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 2,3,5,6 with 1,2,7 with 4 $18.00

Total: $22.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 4:20 EDT / 1:20 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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