Saturday is the final day for prep races on The Road to the Kentucky Derby with today's running of The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Meanwhile, we'll be turning our attention to Santa Anita, where the Grade 3 Las Cienegas is today's featured race, as well as being the third leg in the Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Rule He Will (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 6 Oil (ML 7-2)
Rule He Will took the Place against open non-claiming maidens in his last start upstate. Had that race been on real dirt, Rule He Will would have probably been a single on this ticket, as the drop from open MSW into state restricted MSW is huge. However, how Rule He Will will handle the surface switch from synthetic to dirt is enough of an unknown that it seemed prudent to spread a bit here.
Oil goes first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins with approximately 22% of such. I believe it's a pretty strong positive that Miller isn't offering Oil up for sale in his very first start for the barn, and the rise in class from open $20k Maiden Claimers to the state bred non-claiming maiden ranks isn't all that steep.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Natalie's Wonder (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 3 Ritzy Tags (ML 7-2)
# 8 Kiss At Midnight (ML 5-2)
# 4 Forty Straight (NL) is a program scratch.
Natalie's Wonder, who won at this class level over this main track two starts back, is the only runner in this field to have defeated winners. Ritzy Tags took the Place at this class level last time out.
Kiss At Midnight took the Show in a $40000 N2L Starter Allowance last time out. Normally the jump in class from a non-Winners of Two Lifetime contest into a battle with open claimers would be huge; however, as mentioned above, this field contains only one horse with multiple lifetime victories; so Kiss At Midnight shouldn't be over-matched.
RACE 8 - (F) The Las Cienegas (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Blingismything (ML 4-1)
# 6 Go West Marie (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Home Journey (ML 4-1)
# 3 Living The Life (Ire) (ML 9-2)
# 8 Heavens Stairway (ML 5-2)
Blingismything, a winner in her only prior try charging down the hill, took the Show last time out in the Grade 2 Buena Vista. Go West Marie comes into this contest with a three race winning streak, the last two charging down the hill in state bred stakes.
Home Journey and Heavens Stairway have proven themselves to be competitive against Go West Marie and either could turn the tables on her today. Living The Life (Ire) certainly fits this race on class, and she does show a grass victory in her lifetime record. If Living The Life can carry her form from the synthetics over to the turf she could be the one getting her picture taken today.
RACE 9 - Md $30k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Sharprado C S (ML 4-1)
# 11 Upbeat Tempo (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Stepsun (ML 8-1)
# 2 Flexible (ML 4-1)
# 8 Hit a Homerun (ML 7-2) is a Vet scratch.
Sharprado C S took the Place in his debut last time out at Sam Houston Race Park in Texas, and now ships west in order to compete at the same approximate class level as in his debut. That's a rather interesting move. Anyway, the Beyer Speed Figure that Sharprado C S earned is his debut is the best career Beyer in this field. But keep in mind that figure was earned over a muddy track, the type of surface that Sharprado C S's Wet Tomlinson Rating suggests that he should relish (and also making it even more interesting that a horse that relishes off tracks would be shipped to Southern California). Anyway, a repeat of his debut performance could be enough to give Sharprado C S the Win today.
Upbeat Tempo has the best career Beyer Speed Figure earned over a fast dirt track in this field. Stepsun drops in class while competing for the first time for the barn of Trainer Phil D'Amato. Flexible, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Rafael Bejarano, runs for the first time with a price tag on his head.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1 with 5,6 with 10,11 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 1,3,8 with 2,3,5,6,8 with 1,2,10,11 $60.00
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EDT / 2:59 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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