Wednesday, April 22, 2015

4/22/15 Turf Paradise Pick Five - Preview

I've got a bunch of free time on my hands as I sit here watching paint dry (well, actually I'm waiting for some silicone to cure; but it's the same thing) so I figure let's have a mid-week special and take a run at The Pick Five at Turf Paradise.

RACE 4 - (F) Md $5k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Cat's Reality Star (Morning Line 7-2)
# 7 Tamka (ML 6-5)

B's

None

Cat's Reality Star seems to settle for a lot of minor awards, a definite red flag; but she has proven to be competitive at both this class level and at today's distance.  In addition, Cat's Reality Star has a late running style that may suit her well in this field that is saturated with early speed.

Tamka should probably be a single here; but the fact that her lowest lifetime Beyer Speed Figure (excluding her debut as a two year old) was earned the only prior time that she tried two turns suggests some caution here.

RACE 5 - Clm $3k N2Y - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Truckin (ML 5-2)

B's

None

This contest is restricted to horses that have not won two races since October 22, 2014.  But races where the claiming price was $2.5k or less don't count; that's why # 7 At Last a Wildcat (ML 8-1), with two Wins in 2015, is eligible to enter this race; as his victory on February 8 came when he was running for a tag of $1.75k.

Truckin missed by just a neck over this main track at this class level last time out.  Truckin is a lifetime four-for-fourteen at today's distance.

RACE 6 - Clm $6.25k - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Coach Royal (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 I Am Awesome (ML 2-1)
# 5 Juniper Pass (ML 4-1)

Coach Royal has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last three starts.  Coach Royal has finished in the money in each of his two tries at today's distance on the grass.

I Am Awesome was a clear winner on the main track last time out, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that would probably win today if carried over to the turf.  Juniper. winner of the Grade 2 San Juan Capistrano back in 2011, may still have enough gas in the tank to get the job done at this class level.

RACE 7 - Alw 3500s - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 My Best Bet (ML 2-1)
# 3 Relatively Correct (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 8 Elusive Moment (ML 7-2)

# 4 Inclined to Win (ML 10-1) has been scratched.

My Best Bet has finished in the money against open $10k claimers each of his last two times out.  Relatively Correct was less than a length behind My Best Bet at the wire last time out.  Elusive Moment enters today's contest with a two race winning streak.

RACE 8 - Clm $3k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Macias (ML 5-2)
# 7 Lord Calezaar (ML 9-5)

B's

# 6 Warren's Jeff G. (ML 8-1)
# 8 Jims Midnight Slew (ML 12-1)
# 9 Allen's Crown (ML 4-1)

This contest is restricted to runners which have either:

1) Not won a race since December 22, 2014; OR
2) Which have never won four races.

So as long as a horse has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race.  If a horse has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have been since 12/22/14 in order for the horse to be entered here.

Marcias took the Place at this class level last time out.  Lord Calezaar earned the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, albeit on the grass.  Lord Calezaar is a lifetime two-for-three on the Turf Paradise main track.

Warren's Jeff G. missed by a length of winning at this class level three starts back.  Allen's Crown took the Show at this class level two starts back.  Jims Midnight Slew is on the ticket because there's just no way that I'm losing a Pick Five in the final leg because I didn't cover a horse called Jims Midnight Slew.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P5: 6,7 with 5 with 3 with 1,3 with 5,7 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 6,7 with 5 with 2,3,5 with 1,3,8 with 5,6,7,8,9 $45.00

Total: $49.00

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:48 EDT / 2:48 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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