RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Dortmund (Morning Line 3-5)
B’s
None
Dortmund is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field, and he's done it twice, visiting the Winner's Circle after both The San Felipe and The Los Alamitos Futurity. It's hard to make a legitimate case that Dortmund is not the best horse in this race. That being said, there's no guarantee that Dortmund will win; but I don't see any gain in playing this ticket any way other than with him as a single.
RACE 9 - (F) The Providencia (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Lutine Belle (ML 12-1)
# 2 Ol' Fashion Gal (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 4 Entrechat (ML 4-1)
# 6 Spanish Queen (ML 6-1)
# 7 Frosty Friday (ML 6-1)
# 8 Prize Exhibit (GB) (ML 7-2)
# 10 Spirit of Xian (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 13 Show Stealer (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
Lutine Belle and Ol' Fashion Gal are the only two runners in this field with stakes wins; indeed, Ol' Fashion Gal is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field, and she is the career leader in lifetime turf earnings in this group. I can't possibly see either of these two horses, let alone both of them, leaving the gate at double-digit odds. But, of course, all this is being written prior to the race being run. Once the contest is over, many may be wondering how anyone could have possibly liked either of these two fillies.
Entrechat, Spanish Queen, and Frosty Friday were all big winners of their respective maiden races last time out, each crossing the wire a minimum of three lengths in front of their nearest rivals. Prize Exhibit (GB), who closed well to win last time out, just missed by a neck of winning the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes in her final start overseas. Prize Exhibit should appreciate today's added distance.
Spirit of Xian (GB) took the Show charging down the hill in her North American debut last time out despite being steadied as she crossed over the dirt. Overseas imports often regress in their second North American starts; but I think Spirit of Xian is worth including due to her fine performance with a troubled trip, plus the fact that this will be her first career route race, and there isn't a great deal of early speed in this field.
RACE 10 - [S] (F) The Evening Jewel $200k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Bad Ju Ju (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Long Hot Summer (ML 7-2)
# 2 Nissa (ML 8-1)
# 4 Ashley's Sassy (ML 8-1)
# 6 Can Can Babe (ML 20-1)
# 10 Jenna's Faith (ML 8-1)
# 12 Princess Bertrando (ML 12-1)
# 13 Easter Fever (ML 8-1)
Bad Ju Ju has the best last out Fast Dirt Beyer Speed Figure in this field. Bad Ju Ju also has the best career Fast Dirt Beyer of any runner in this contest. Long Hot Summer has the best last out overall Beyer Speed Figure in this field, earned while charging down the hill. This will be Long Hot Summer's first career start on a fast dirt track; if she can handle the surface switch, she should be right there at the wire.
Nissa appears to be rounding into form, and should appreciate the turn back in distance. Ashley's Sassy may be the best closer in this field filled with a ton of early speed. Can Can Babe earned her career best Beyer Speed Figure in her last dirt race, which was against open stakes competition.
Jenna's Faith tries winners for the first time, after earning a Beyer Speed Figure in her debut that would put her right in the mix against today's contenders. Princess Bertrando ran the best race of her career the last time that she competed on the Santa Anita main track. Easter Fever settles for too many minor awards for my taste; but how do you leave a horse named Easter Fever off your ticket on Holy Saturday?
RACE 11 - The Thunder Road $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Enterprising (ML 8-1)
# 3 Baccelo (Brz) (ML 30-1) and # 11 Mr. Commons (ML 20-1) have been scratched. Bring in # 13 Cummings Road (ML 15-1) from the Also Eligible list; but # 14 Gabriel Charles (ML 4-1) gets to stay in the barn and watch the Final Four on TV.
Winning Prize (Arg) wasn't able to earn a repeat victory in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile last time out; but his performance in that contest, if repeated today, should get him into the Winner's Circle. Enterprising, making his 2015 debut, is a career four-for-four when competing at today's distance on the grass.
OK, that's the analysis. As you can see, it's pretty much a Hopscotch Double, with Dortmund on one end and Winning Prize and Enterprising on the other. Anyway, playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 5 with 4 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,4,6,7,8,10 with 1,2,4,5,6,10,12,13 with 2,4 $56.00
Total: $58.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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