4/5/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Preview

Happy Easter everyone!  Here's hoping that each and every one of you are enjoying yourselves this Sunday.  We're going to change things up a bit today, and move our action from late to early, and take a run at today's Pick Five at The Great Race Place.

RACE 1 - Hcp 16000s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 My Jealous (Morning Line 4-1)

B’s

None

Note that this contest does not have any career Win restrictions in its conditions.

My Jealous enters this contest with a two race winning streak as well as a string of steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures, the most recent of which is the best last out Beyer in this field.

Persuasive Paul, a stakes winner on the turf two starts back, has shown the ability to win at this class level on the dirt in the past.  The reason Persuasive Paul is not on this ticket is because his career record on the Santa Anita main track is oh-for-three, compared to his lifetime three-for-three on all other dirt surfaces.  Perhaps that's just a coincidence, rather than a dislike for the Santa Anita surface; but I'm willing to bet that it's not.  So if Persuasive Paul wins today, this ticket loses.

RACE 2 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Desert Dynamo (ML 7-2)

B's

# 6 Jimbo Fallon (ML 3-1)

If Desert Dynamo, the only experienced runner in this field, has matured at a normal level since his debut back in October, then he should be well qualified to win here; and the bullet work that Desert Dynamo posted from the gate 3/22 strongly suggests that he's ready to roll.

Jimbo Fallon, one of two first time starters trained by Bob Baffert, has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.  But seriously, if I have to tell you why Jimbo Fallon is on this ticket, then you're just not paying attention.

RACE 3 - Md $30k - Six  and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Kenjisstorm (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Cal McLish (ML 3-1)
# 9 Bandido Too (ML 9-2)

# 1 Love On the Road (ML 4-1) has been scratched.

Kenjisstorm has earned Beyer Speed Figures on the dirt against non-claiming maidens that would certainly get the job done today.  Kenjisstorm also has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.  The concern is that Kenjisstorm is now trained by Michael Pender, who is oh-for-his last twenty three when sending out a new barn acquisition for the first time; for that reason, it seems prudent to spread a bit here.

Cal McLish, owned and trained by Steve Miyadi, goes third off the layoff after taking the Show at this class level last time out.  Bandido Too also took the Show at this class level last time out.

RACE 4 - (F) Md $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Socialized (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Katy Drama (ML 3-1)

# 10 Revenue Virginius (ML 4-1)

# 6 Delaney's Joy (ML 30-1) and # 8 Autumn Flower (ML 4-1) have been scratched.

Socialized took the Place on this turf course at today's distance against non-claiming maidens last time out.  Katy Drama, trained by Peter Miller, took the Show at this class level charging down the hill last time out.  Revenue Virginius took the Show against non-claiming maidens charging down the hill two starts back.

RACE 5 - (F) The Santa Paula $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Sensitively (ML 9-5)

# 6 Enchanting Lady (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Rattataptap (ML 5-1)

# 2 Ben's Duchess (ML 9-2)

# 4 Tara's Tango (ML 8-5)

# 5 Miss Mandate (ML 12-1)

Sensitively enters this contest with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, which also happens to be the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  That number was earned by Sensitively in her debut, which she won by over nine lengths.  Note that Trainer Phil D'Amato gets over 30% winners when sending out a runner who had won last time out.

Enchanting Lady is the only stakes winner in this field, having won the Landaluce last year over this main track.  Rattataptap is the only runner here with multiple career victories.  Ben's Duchess, trained by John Sadler, could be the one running best late.  Tara's Tango, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, was impressive winning her debut on the Del Mar synthetic last Summer.  Miss Mandate is on the ticket because I don't have the courage to go "ALL Minus One" in the last leg of a Pick Five.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5:  4 with 7 with 4 with 3 with 3,6 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 4 with 6,7 with 2,4,9 with 3,4,10 with 1,2,3,4,5,6 $54.00

Total: $56.00

Post Time for Race 1 is 3:30 EDT / 12:30 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo