"A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries." - Will Rogers
Just a few more days to the Kentucky Derby; which, as regular readers already know, means that this blog is about to go dark. Good Lord willing I will be spending the first Saturday in May at Green Valley Ranch in Henderson, Nevada, enjoying great service along with the company of great friends. I may be able to get a few Tweets out; but I anticipate that, as usual, there just won't be enough time for a full blog post.
Before I go, allow me to point you to a few of the free Kentucky Derby resources available online. Free DRF Formulator Past Performances for both the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks can be had here, along with some fine video analysis by Dan Illman and Matt Bernier. Free Brisnet PPs are also available online for the Kentucky Oaks (scroll down to May 1, Churchill Downs - Race 11) and the Kentucky Derby (scroll down to May 2, Churchill Downs - Race 11). Finally, if you're willing to divulge your email address, Xpressbet.com is offering a free 2015 Kentucky Derby Wager Guide, a very fine piece of literature that offers some interesting tidbits as well as analysis and betting strategies from Steve Byk, Ron White, Mike Battaglia, Bob Neumeier, and others.
As to the Derby itself; hey, remember how easy it was last year to pick California Chrome? This year, not so easy. The points system did what it was designed to do, giving us a Derby field containing all those qualified to win this race with very little dross. Indeed, this field has almost the feel of a Breeders' Cup race, in that you could pick any one of at least a half dozen runners and be confident that you were backing a legitimate contender.
# 18 American Pharoah (Morning Line 5-2) and # 8 Dortmund (ML 3-1) will no doubt be the public's top two choices when the gates open, and I expect to be using both in my multi-race wagering. I also expect to be using some of # 6 Mubtaahij (ML 20-1). Yes, I know that past UAE Derby participants did not fare well in their respective Kentucky Derby appearances. But Mubtaahij has that Animal Kingdom angle going for him; not the surface switch (since Meydan now has a real dirt track) but the overwhelming edge over the rest of the field that Mubtaahij, like Animal Kingdom in 2011, has in his Tomlinson Distance Rating.
But the key horse that I'll be using in the featured race on Saturday is # 3 Materiality (ML 12-1). No, Materiality didn't race as a two year old, so he'll have the curse of Apollo to overcome. But despite his inexperience, there's no doubt in my mind that Materiality ran the best Kentucky Derby prep race this year. Speed was coming back all day at Gulfstream Park on the day of the Florida Derby, yet no one was able to gain on inch on Materiality as he ran through the stretch. In addition, commentators throughout the day that Saturday were talking about how the Gulfstream Park rail was dead and the place to be was the outside; yet it was Materiality, on the inside, who was able to hold off Upstart, on the outside, to cross the wire first. My only concern with Materiality is that I don't like the draw of Post Position 3; but while that may temper how much I wager with him on top, I have no doubt that Materiality is the runner that I'll be leaning most heavily upon.
So there you have it. Remember above all the most important thing is to have fun this Saturday. This is your day, racing fans, so make the most of it. Enjoy!
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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