3/23/13 GP Rainbow Six - Preview

As I type this, the skies are cloudy at Gulfstream Park; but the track is fast and the turf is firm, and if this ticket comes through for us it will all be sunshine and rainbows.

RACE 6

# 2 Wine Burglar (Morning Line 7-2) has made steady progress in her three career starts, as evidenced by her Beyer Speed Figures (56 / 61 / 69).  Since that 69 came over two months ago, it's not unreasonable to presume that this three year old filly will have grown some over that time, and should therefore improve on that mark.

# 1 Galloping Giraffe (ML 6-1) is a first time starter for Todd Pletcher; note that Pletcher connects more than a third of the time with debuters.  Pletcher doesn't have his go-to guy here to take the mount, as Johnny V is riding for him at Turfway Park today.  First choice to sub was Joe Rocco Jr; but Rocco is off all his scheduled mounts today; so Edgar Prado will be on board.

RACE 7

# 1 One Tough Cowgirl (ML 3-1) took the Place at this level in her debut last month at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing almost six lengths in front of the Show horse, Josh's Butta Butta, who won at the MSW level her next time out.

# 4 Tiz Thunderful (ML 12-1) is by a sire (Tiz Wonderful) whose offspring win 18% of their debuts; and that's just too tempting to let go by, even if conditioner Manuel Estevez shows zero-for-ten with first time starters.

# 13 Cindy Cata (ML 5-1) draws in from the Also Eligible list.  She's finished in the money her last two starts (both at this level) and she's quick out of the gate; so she could potentially steal this one on the front end.

RACE 8

# 2 Dame Marie (ML 8-1) looks to be the best of the late runners in a turf affair that shows a lot of early speed.  She's two-for-four when running on the Gulfstream grass, and she's been in the Trifecta at this level in two of her last three starts.

# 6 Street Secret (ML 7-2) makes her first North American start, running for a barn that clicks at a 40% rate when tackling such endeavors.  Her form shows victories when the grass has been good-to-firm and when it's been soft; so rain or no rain, she should be ready to fire.

RACE 9

# 10 Affair (ML 3-1) just missed at this level two back, finishing a neck behind Won Kool Kid, who would win again his next time out.  Unclear why two separate connections have tried to see what Affair would do on the grass; throw those two races out, and you get a much clearer picture of this colt's form.

# 1 Prima Zip (ML 6-1) is another where you would do well to disregard his last effort on the grass; indeed, Prima Zip was vanned off after that turf fiasco, only to come back less than three weeks later to post a bullet work on the Calder dirt.  Prima Zip won at this approximate level two back; so a victory here should not surprise.

RACE 10 - The Pan American

First, let me inform you that this is DRF.com's Race of the Day, so you can get free Past Performances by clicking the link, not to mention free video analysis of this race by someone who actually knows what he's talking about, Dan Illman.

# 10 Newsdad (ML 2-1) is last year's winner of this event, and is clearly the horse to beat again this year.  However, there are some red flags; this will be her first start since last October; though that bullet work on March 18, coupled with Trainer Bill Mott's .24 Winning Percentage with horses coming back from a few months vacation, would suggest that Newsdad will be ready to fire.  Newsdad is also winless on the grass since winning The Pan American last year; though it could be said that has more to do with the ability of Point of Entry, to whom Newsdad lost three times in succession, than with any form deficiencies on Newsdad's part.

# 3 Ioya Bigtime (ML 6-1) has twice won on the turf at today's distance of twelve furlongs, and just missed victory by a neck one other time; all in Graded Stakes events.  Jockey Jeffery Sanchez, who was on board for all three of those races, gets the mount again today.

RACE 11

# 1 Snit Fit (ML 7-2) just missed at this level against older her last time out.  The 69 Beyer Speed Figure she earned in that event is the best career Beyer in this field.

# 3 Lovely Dynaformer (ML 6-1) makes the big drop from MSW to Maiden Claiming, while also switching to a barn (Edward Plesa Jr.) who connects 38% of the time with that angle.  Besides, I've always been a sucker for Dynaformer horses trying to break their maiden while on grass.

So, with all that, our ticket looks like this:


RACE 6: 1 / 2

RACE 7: 1 / 4 / 13

RACE 8: 2 / 6

RACE 9: 1 / 10

RACE 10: 3 / 10

RACE 11: 1 / 3

Play it for a dime and the whole thing will cost you $9.60.

Post time for Race 6 is 3:35 EDT / 12:35 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo