Since I knew that I would be watching the Big Cap today at Santa Anita regardless of whatever else I did, it just made sense to work their final few races. With that, here are some thoughts on the late Pick Four at Santa Anita:
RACE 8
The first thing that caught my eye when handicapping this race was that # 5 Rousing Sermon (Morning Line 7-2) still has only two career wins. Maybe it's because he's almost always competitive against top competition, but I figured for sure that this four year old had visited the Winner's Circle more than twice.
#10 Obess (ML 15-1) could be the controlling speed in this field; but it appears that he's not really comfortable being the leader of the pack. The 98 Beyer he earned over this track last April (at six and a half furlongs) should be enough to win this race; but Obess hasn't come within a dozen points of that figure since that effort.
# 11 Mensa Heat (ML 6-1) had a streak from March 26, 2011 to December 18, 2011 where he won six out of ten races (with one Place and two Shows). Sadly, he has not won since, in ten tries.
# 8 Zackn'mat (ML 6-1) returned to the track after taking almost a year off following his Place finish in Borderland Derby at Sunland Park. The unretired Gary Stevens, who rode Zackn'mat to a career best 92 Beyer his last time out, is back on board.
Despite all the above, I decided to single # 6 Sir Bond (ML 9-2). The major selling point to me is the 97 Beyer Sir Bond posted three back over this track at this distance in The Damascus; that was also the last time Sir Bond competed on a dry fast track. That 97 Beyer is better than anything any other entrant in this affair has ever posted at today's distance. Having Steve Asmussen as his conditioner just adds to the appeal.
RACE 9 - The Kilroe Mile
# 8 Mr. Commons (ML 3-1) has posted triple digit Beyers in each of his last three races; if he matches any of those efforts, he wins this affair. Trainer John Shirreffs hits 25% of the time (with a $3.24 ROI) when bringing a horse back from a two-to-three month layoff, and the bullet work Mr. Commons posted February 23 shows that he's ready to give his best.
RACE 10 - The Santa Anita Handicap
If I had more faith in # 9 Game On Dude (ML 6-5) I could really spread wide in Races 8 and 11. The problem for me is that, while the Dude loves this track (six wins in seven tries) he's at best lukewarm to this distance, with two victories in eight attempts. Also consider that the Dude won't get to have things all his own way today, because when he jumps out to the early lead, he's going to find # 2 Handsome Mike (ML 20-1) has gotten there first.
Speaking of Doug O'Neill horses (of which Handsome Mike is one) # 6 Richard's Kid (ML 12-1) has not been the same since making to move to the O'Neill barn from Bob Baffert. Granted, Richard's Kid isn't as bad as he looked his last time out (what in the world was he doing on the grass?) but it sure looks like his best days are behind him.
# 1 Ron the Greek (ML 5-2), like Game On Dude, is a prior winner of this contest (TRIVIA QUESTION: Who are the three horses that have won the Santa Anita Derby more than once? Answer below). Also like Game On Dude, the Greek's main negative is the distance, having finished out of the money three out of the five times he's tried going this far.
# 4 Called to Serve (ML 6-1) is trying ten furlongs for the first time today. While his Tomlin Rating for the distance (304) looks rather light, the fact that his sire was Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex suggests that he should have no problem making it to the wire. The five straight bullet works suggests that Called to Serve could be sitting on a big one today.
RACE 11
Very tempted to just hit "ALL" with all the first time starters; so let's just do that.
So, with all that, we're looking at a ticket of:
RACE 8: # 6
RACE 9: # 8
RACE 10: # 1, # 4, # 9
RACE 11: ALL
If you play it for fifty cents, the whole thing will cost you $18.00.
Post time for Race 8 is 6:44 EST / 3:44 PST. Good luck to all.
ANSWER TO TRIVIA QUESTION: The three horses with two Santa Anita Handicaps victories are John Henry (1981-82), Milwaukee Brew (2002-03), and Lava Man (2006-07).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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