Heading back to sunny South Florida today; well, not physically, but as far as my handicapping attention goes. Took a serious look at today's Rainbow Six, and I couldn't find any way to put in a legitimate ticket for under seventy dollars. So, rather than take a serious stab, let's instead play an unserious ticket, and see if we can't get some cheap Saturday afternoon action; and, who knows; maybe by the Grace of The Almighty we'll find ourselves standing on the short line waiting to collect after the final race is run.
RACE 6
We'll know right away if this is going to be a short afternoon, as this race will have our one single on the ticket, # 10 Ju Ju Eyeballs (Morning Line 4-1). Anyone who knows my musical preferences will understand why I like the name; anyone who knows how to read trainer stats will appreciate why I like this one's chances in what looks to be a very competitive field. Our best hope is for Jockey Joel Rosario to bring her home past all the early speed.
RACE 7
# 5 Magical World (ML 4-1) is a first time starter for a trainer (Shug McGaughey) that doesn't often win with first time starters. But the offspring of Magical World's sire (Distorted Humor) connect more than sixteen percent of the time when making their debut, and the fact that Javier Castellano will be on board could be a sign that this one is ready to roll.
# 7 Lily Olay (ML 3-1) has twice been the bridesmaid at this level, taking the Place in both her career starts. The 65 Beyer Speed Figure that she earned her last time out (at six and a half furlongs) is the best Beyer in this field, and her Tomelinson Rating for the distance (365) suggests that the extra half panel will suit her just fine.
RACE 8
# 2 Incredicat (ML 20-1) is a stakes winner on dirt, and could steal this thing on the front end in his turf debut.
# 1 Southern Parkway (ML 6-1) took the Show at this level over this course at this distance his last time out; the winner of that one, Burn the Mortgage, had won his prior start as well, and just missed making it three in a row his last time out when he took the Show against N3X company.
# 6 Malibu Way (ML 6-1) comes back after an almost nine month vacation for a trainer (Christophe Clement) that wins more than a third of the time with horses who have taken off for a half-year or more. The fact that Malibu Way won his debut is a further indication that he can win off the pine; also note that Jersey Joe Bravo, who was on board Malibu Way for both his career wins and none of his career losses, gets the mount today.
RACE 9
# 6 Jordan's Image (ML 5-2) and # 2 Nemo Landing (ML 3-1) finished one-two their last time out, at this level on this track at this distance; a look at the field suggests that they should do likewise today. If I were to go three deep in this one I would give serious thought to # 10 In Speight of It (ML 12-1), who won over this track at this distance against this level two back, albeit just barely, and on a day when the field came up especially light, talent-wise. Still, if you're looking for a longshot play, In Speight of It is well worth considering; and it would be a mistake (in my humble opinion) to totally disregard him if you're playing Trifectas and Superfectas in this one.
RACE 10 - The Honey Fox
I really don't have much insight to offer in this one, taking as I am the top four as defined by the Morning Line odds: # 2 Centre Court (ML 3-1); # 4 Channel Lady (ML 4-1); # 6 Pianist (ML 5-1); and # 8 Samitar (GB) (ML 5-1). All strike me as having a legitimate shot in this one; and, even on a fun ticket, I just can't see leaving any out.
RACE 11
# 6 Acadian Connection (ML 5-1) has the best last-out Beyer in this field, in a race over this turf course with this price tag, but against older.
# 1 Channel Changer (ML 4-1) gets Johnny V in the saddle after taking the Show at this level his last time out. Channel Changer's Tomlinson Rating for both turf and turf distance suggest that he should do well at this; which is what you would expect from a son of English Channel.
# 10 Dangerous Brew (ML 12-1) is one that I wish I could see the tote board before having to decide whether to include or not; but sometimes you just have to roll the dice. The breeding is definitely there, both for debuts and for turf routes; the far outside post should be a benefit if he runs too green; the workout pattern has been consistent; and if he should come in after we miraculously hit the other five races, our little ticket just might be worth shouting about.
So, with all that, we get the following ticket of:
RACE 6: 10
RACE 7: 5, 7
RACE 8: 1 / 2 / 6
RACE 9: 2 / 6
RACE 10: 2 / 4 / 6 / 8
RACE 11: 1 / 6 /10
Play it for a dime, with all the confidence of a lottery ticket, and the whole thing will cost you $14.40.
Post time for Race 6 is 3:35 EDT / 12:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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