Hopefully everyone reading this is enjoying what is, thanks to Daylight Savings Time, the shortest weekend of the year. Even more hopefully. my comments below regarding today's late Pick Four at Santa Anita will add to, rather than detract from, this weekend's enjoyment.
RACE 6
# 12 Real Heat (Morning Line 5-2) just missed at this level (California bred MSW) his last time out, losing by less than a length. He's shortening up here, but he's also going down the hill for the first time; typically, horses who do well on turf routes tend to do well going down the hill. Trainer Eric Kruljac does quite well when taking his horses from routes to sprints, winning 25% of the time with a positive ROI. Bejarano sticks around for the ride, which just adds to the appeal.
# 9 Great Friends Rule (ML 8-1) tries grass for the first time; as he has a Turf Tomlinson Rating of 362, along with a Turf Distance Tomlinson of 371 (best in the field) he can be expected to handle it quite well. This is the fifth career start for Great Friends Rule; since Trainer Doug O'Neill normally has his horses super primed for their debuts, if they don't win at first asking, they normally don't win at second or third asking either.
Speaking of debuts, # 4 Art Official (ML 4-1) goes to the post for the first time in his career. Trainer Peter Miller hits 27% of the time with those making their initial try (ROI $3.07). Miller also wins a quarter of his races with those trying grass for the first time, and he wins approximately 22% of his MSW events (ROI $2.86). Art Official has the best Turf Tomlinson rating of the bunch; add in the presence of Garret Gomez in the saddle, and its easy to conclude that this horse is ready to roll down the hill.
# 7 Swiss Sword (ML 6-1) is another first time starter, and he doesn't appear to have the turf pedigree of most others in this field. But Trainer Marty Jones does very well in the all the relevant angles, with a positive ROI to boot; it'll take a bit of courage to leave this one off the ticket.
RACE 7
# 5 I Don't Care Who (ML 4-1) broke his maiden over this track two starts back, at a distance of eight furlongs against $75k Maiden Claimers. Since that was a race that was moved off the turf, the class level may be misleading; and since the track was wet fast, it could be that he prefers it that way rather than dust dry (note the Wet Tomlinson of 404). But I Don't Care Who earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 87 for that effort; and if he runs to that figure again today, he'll romp against these.
# 1 Tiz Snazzy (ML 9-2) makes his first try against winners (well, mostly winners, as we'll see in a bit) after winning at the $40k Maiden level his last time out, in a race that wasn't his best effort (at least, based upon his Beyer Speed Figures). Since this will be his third start off the layoff, it's reasonable to expect improvement; but if he just returns to the BSF of 82 that he posted two back, he'll be in the hunt in this one.
# 4 World Renowned (ML 12-1) is a maiden challenging winners; for the second time, no less. World Renowned took the Place two back in the same race in which Tiz Snazzy broke his maiden. World Renowned has the best Distance Tomlinson in this field; more importantly, World Renowned is quite possibly the quickest in the field. He's certainly the quickest between his Post 4 and the rail; so look for him up front early, and then see if he can hold on til the end.
RACE 8 - The Las Flores
# 5 Teddy's Promise (ML 8-5) stands out from the field just on class; but I do have some doubts (everyone should be aware that me having my doubts about a top favorite is a signal for many who regularly read these comments to bet their whole bankroll on said favorite; such is life when you're on a cold streak). My concerns stem from a look at the Beyers; note that, in Teddy's Promises last ten races, her worst two speed figures in that bunch both came over this track when it was fast and dry. On the other hand, this horse is also a Grade 1 winner over this track on a day when it was fast and dry; so perhaps those other two efforts can be disregarded.
# 3 Shumoos (ML 3-1) had quite a career going for herself before she decided to take a year off after taking the Place in the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. She looked good enough winning her return last month over this track, but this will be her first real test in well over a year; and if her heart's not in it, you could find her just going through the motions.
# 2 Rumor (ML 5-1) won the LA Woman over this track at today's distance three races back. Last year she won the Kalookan Queen over this track at today's distance, earning a BSF of 99 in the process. So the ability is there if she brings her best; but if she brings anything less than her best, she'll have no shot today.
Speaking of ability, # 6 Sugarinthemorning (ML 6-1) seemingly has it in droves. What Sugarinthemorning doesn't seem to have anymore is the desire to win. This is a horse that won five times in her first nine races; two of those victories coming in listed stakes. However, in her ten races since then, all against listed or graded stakes competition, Sugarinthemorning has been winless, while taking the Place seven times. So the ability to win is there; but, for whatever reason, she just will no longer cross the wire first. If you're playing the intra-race exotics, you most certainly have to use her on your tickets, but outside the top spot; and then hope that today isn't the day that she decides that it's okay for the entire rest of the field to take a good look at her backside.
RACE 9
# 3 Late Night Sky (ML 8-5) takes a pretty big class drop here; after having competed against open claimers at the $50k and $32k level, he's now running with a price tag of just $25k, in a field comprised of horses with no more than one lifetime win. Late Night Sky is the only horse in the field with a win over this Santa Anita Turf Course.
# 7 Warren's Rail Bird (ML 6-1) took the Place two back at this level over this course at this distance. The pace should be honest enough that he'll have something to run at late; however, the fact that he was sold so cheap ($8k) his last time out does raise a red flag.
# 6 Captain Beau (ML 20-1) is a horse where you truly want to watch the board before making a decision. After all, this is a horse that has gone to post with double digit odds in eight of his nine lifetime starts. The only time in his career Captain Beau left the gate at odds of less than 10-1 was back on February 11, 2011; a race in which Captain Beau ran as the Post Time favorite, at odds of less than 2-1. By an amazing coincidence, that race was also Captain Beau's lone career victory.
If you're looking for some really cheap action, you could just play the following ticket:
RACE 6: 4 / 9 / 12
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3 / 7
If you buy it for fifty cents, your total cost would be three dollars. However, I'm going to spread a little here; in addition to the above, I'm going to also punch in the following three tickets:
RACE 6: 7
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3 / 7
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
RACE 6: 4 / 9 / 12
RACE 7: 1 / 4
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3 / 7
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
RACE 6: 4 / 9 / 12
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 2 / 3
RACE 9: 3 / 7
By playing the top ticket for a dollar, and the other three for fifty cents each, the total cost becomes nineteen dollars.
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:05 EDT / 3:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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